2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions: Winners, Sleepers, Busts, and Holes to Watch
The PGA Tour continues its California swing this week with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. For the second straight week, the field will play three different golf courses (Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club, Spyglass Hill Golf Club) to set up a 54-hole cut. The remaining players will then play Pebble Beach again in the final round to decide a winner.
So, who might be the one hoisting the trophy on Sunday afternoon, and who might struggle this week? Our golf experts have the answers to those questions and more.
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions
Here are a few predictions for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am from Sportscasting golf experts Luke Norris and Jack Dougherty.
Winner
Luke Norris: Seamus Power
There may be no more underrated golfer in the world right now than Seamus Power. He hasn’t finished lower than 25th in each of his last five worldwide starts, and that includes a victory in Bermuda back in November. The 35-year-old, who currently sits in fifth place in the FedEx Cup standings and is the 28th-ranked player in the world, led this tournament by five shots after 36 holes a year ago after shooting a pair of 64s.
However, a 74-72 weekend led to a tie for ninth. And I’m betting that doesn’t sit well with him. Power, who does just about everything well, will be extremely focused as he looks to capture the title that got away. And with cool and damp conditions expected on the peninsula this week, the Irishman should feel right at home.
Jack Dougherty: Maverick McNealy
When scouring the Pebble Beach field in search of potential winners, you want to look for players with successful histories at California golf courses. There’s just something about those bumpy, poa annua greens that brings the best out in some golfers.
One of them is Maverick McNealy.
The Stanford graduate grew up in California, and he always plays his best golf on the west coast. McNealy has recorded two top-five finishes in four starts at this event, and he could’ve won in 2021 if not for the unlucky penalty he was assessed in the third round. In his last eight starts, McNealy has six top-18 finishes and four top-10s. He’s got a great chance to notch PGA Tour win No. 1 this week.
Biggest sleeper
Luke Norris: Robby Shelton
Since the 2022-23 PGA Tour season began, 27-year-old Robby Shelton, who regained status after two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, has jumped more than 100 spots in the world rankings and now sits at No. 124.
The former Alabama star finished in the top 10 in two of his last four starts, including a tie for sixth at the star-studded American Express a couple of weeks back, which also has a pro-am element to it, shooting 66-68-65-66 to finish just four back of Jon Rahm. Does that sound like a guy who should have 90-1 odds at Pebble Beach? I think not.
Jack Dougherty: Will Gordon
Despite ranking 122nd in strokes gained putting this season, Will Gordon has made eight cuts in 10 starts and recorded a T3 at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. The 26-year-old can really stripe the ball, and he finally showed some positive signs with the putter at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open by gaining the most strokes on the green he has in a start all season. I think he can keep the momentum going this week on similar greens.
Most likely bust
Luke Norris: Viktor Hovland
While Viktor Hovland is undoubtedly one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour — he’s finished outside the top 25 just once in his eight starts since last year’s Tour Championship — his only win over the last year was at the 20-player Hero World Challenge.
The Norweigan won the U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach in 2018, but in his only start in this tournament in 2020, he tied for 38th. Hovland may not finish quite that low this time around, but I don’t see him as a genuine contender this week.
Jack Dougherty: Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth is the betting favorite to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and deservedly so. The Texas native has six top-10 finishes and one win at this event in 10 starts, but I don’t love what I saw from Spieth in his last start. After shooting a first-round 64 to take the lead at the Sony Open, he followed it up with a 75 in Round 2 and missed the cut. Spieth lost strokes in every area except putting over the two rounds. That won’t fly at Pebble Beach.
Make-or-break hole
Luke Norris: No. 17
The par-3 17th at Pebble Beach is one of the most scenic holes on the course. But this beauty of a hole can play quite difficult at times, especially when the wind kicks up. While not overly long at 185 yards, there’s trouble everywhere. Can you make birdie? Absolutely. But only 17% of players did so a year ago. Of the top five on last year’s leaderboard, you had two birdies, one par, a bogey, and a double-bogey on this hole during the final round. So anything can happen here, which is what makes this hole so great.
Jack Dougherty: No. 8
The eighth hole at Pebble Beach is one of my favorite holes to watch on the PGA Tour. Players must lay up with less than driver to an elevated fairway, and the approach shot from one cliff to another is about as visually intimidating as you’ll find in the world. The tiny green surrounded by 3 bunkers and the Pacific Ocean makes the par 4 even more impossible to master. Par is a fantastic score on No. 8.
