AFC East Betting Preview: Why I’m Fading the Super Bowl-Favorite Buffalo Bills

The betting market in the AFC East isn’t much of a complicated one. The Buffalo Bills are overwhelming favorites to win the division in 2023, which isn’t much of a surprise considering they’re also the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.

But I’m not jumping head-first on the Bills bandwagon just yet. Check out the full betting breakdown for the AFC East and why my best bet is focused on Buffalo underachieving this season.

AFC East betting odds

Josh Allen is tackled during a game against the Patriots.
Devin McCourty of the New England Patriots tackles Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills | Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

The Bills are the talk of the town in the NFL heading into the 2022-23 season. Josh Allen has ascended to the superstar tier of quarterbacks, Von Miller joins the fold to bolster this already-impressive defense, and Buffalo will enter the season as the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +650 odds.

Unsurprisingly, the Bills are also heavy favorites to win the AFC East at -220, with the Miami Dolphins (+450) and New England Patriots (+500) well back on the odds board. Check out the full AFC East betting breakdown below:

AFC East win totals
Buffalo Bills: 11.5
Miami Dolphins: 8.5
New England Patriots: 8.5
New York Jets: 5.5

Odds to win AFC East
Buffalo Bills: -220
Miami Dolphins: +450
New England Patriots: +500
New York Jets: +2400

Odds to win AFC
Buffalo Bills: +350
New England Patriots: +2000
Miami Dolphins: +2200
New York Jets: +8500

Odds to win Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills: +650
Miami Dolphins: +4000
New England Patriots: +4000
New York Jets: +15000

AFC East best bet: Why I’m fading the Bills

Bills UNDER 11.5 wins (+115)

I know, I know. I can already sense the steam flowing out of your ears just reading this best bet. The Bills are considered the best team in the NFL heading into the 2022-23 season. They went 11-6 last year and only got better over the offseason. Why in the world would I fade this juggernaut?

Well, for one, reaching 12 wins is no walk in the park in today’s NFL. You have to stay healthy for 18 weeks and win nearly every game on the schedule you’re supposed to win. The Bills start their season with games against the Los Angeles Rams, the Tennessee Titans, the Miami Dolphins, the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Green Bay Packers in the first seven weeks. Buffalo could easily be 3-4 by the end of that stretch.

The Dolphins and Patriots are also much improved from last season, so it won’t be a cakewalk even to win the division. Buffalo will have a constant target on its back as the Super Bowl favorite, and I think the Bills will grind their way to 10 or 11 wins.

Hold onto your butts for this one!

All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 7/24.

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