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There isn’t much excitement surrounding this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans, and rightfully so. The 7-0 Eagles are currently set as 13.5-point favorites in the game, so Vegas doesn’t expect this to be very competitive.

With another Thursday night dud likely on the horizon, we’ll have to find a way to inject somekind of juice into this lopsided matchup. And how can we do that? With prop bets, of course.

Thankfully for all you sports bettors out there, I’ve scoured the board and found a winning Davis Mills prop bet you need to target for TNF. Let’s get into it.

Eagles-Texans prop bet to target: Davis Mills under 219.5 passing yards (-115)

Davis Mills looks to pass against the Titans.
Davis Mills of the Houston Texans scrambles from Andrew Adams of the Tennessee Titans | Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

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How do we make a blah Thursday Night Football matchup fun to watch? By rooting for fewer yards, of course!

That’s right, for our must-bet prop of the night, we’re going with Davis Mills to go under his passing yards prop of 219.5 yards.

Let’s start with Mills himself. The second-year quarterback has gone over this total four times in eight games, but those four performances came against the Indianapolis Colts, the Chicago Bears, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Las Vegas Raiders. The best passing defense Mills has faced so far was the Denver Broncos, and he finished that game with just 177 yards through the air on 38 attempts.

Mills will also be missing at least one of his top weapons on Thursday night. Nico Collins, Houston’s No. 2 wide receiver, has already been ruled out for the game. Brandin Cooks, the team’s No. 1, is questionable to play due to a wrist injury. Even if Cooks is healthy enough to play, he might be a healthy scratch because of his desire to get out of Houston.

Now, onto the Eagles, who have the fourth-best passing defense in the NFL. Philadelphia is surrendering just 183.4 passing yards per game, and the defense has allowed only two opposing quarterbacks to go over this number. Kirk Cousins threw for 221 yards against them in Week 2, and Kyler Murray threw for 250 yards in Week 5.

The way to attack this Eagles defense is on the ground. With Jordan Davis ruled out for the game, I expect a heavy dose of Dameon Pierce from the Texans. Even if Houston finds itself in catch-up mode in the second half, I don’t see them moving the ball consistently through the air. The Texans rank 30th in the league in third-down conversion percentage (31.91%), so we won’t be seeing many prolonged drives from this offense.

If the Eagles build an early lead, they should be able to bleed the clock in the second half with their efficient run game. That will limit Houston’s possessions and make this bet even easier to cash.

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