Are The Golden State Warriors Back To Being Title Contenders?

After starting the season an uninspiring 25-26, the Golden State Warriors have gone 15-3 with the NBA’s third-best net rating (plus-11.2) since Jimmy Butler — ahead of inner-circle title contenders like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.

This sure sounds like a force to be reckoned with. But what has fueled their turnaround? And how good is this new version of the Warriors actually?

Butler’s Basketball Smarts

I feel a minor victory lap is appropriate here. That’s because basically everything we thought the Butler trade would do for the Warriors when it first happened has come to fruition. Butler gives the Warriors a secondary creator to take some pressure off their franchise icon, Stephen Curry, he vastly improves their ability to draw fouls and he helps them create more turnovers defensively.

The part I didn’t give enough justice to was how much Butler’s beautiful basketball mind would boost this Warriors’ attack. It’s long been known Butler is a master at taking what the defense gives him. He knows that, in basketball, the offense always has the advantage because the defense can’t take away everything. There is always a counter.

Butler can analyze practically any defensive configuration and almost instantaneously identify the weak spot. This clip below is one of my favorite examples.

The Warriors run one of their token post split actions. This time, Butler is screening for Moses Moody. While Butler is getting ready to screen, he realizes Moody’s man, Deni Avdija, is trailing behind and will likely instruct Shaedon Sharpe to switch the screen. So, instead of screening Avdija (as is typical), Butler audibles and instead screens his own man, Sharpe — leading to an open three for the red-hot Moody (career-high 38.8 percent from three this year).

Butler’s blend of on-ball creation, foul-drawing, defensive impact and feel have clearly taken the Warriors to another level. But the question is: how high is that level?

Shooting Variance?

Whenever I’m analyzing a team on a hot streak, I always make sure to take a look at the team’s 3-point percentage, as well as that of its opponents during said stretch. A lot of times, it’s evident a team is playing over its head if it is unsustainably hot from three or if opponents have been conveniently ice cold beyond the arc.

This hasn’t been the case for the Warriors. Over their last 18 games, they’re just 15th in 3-point percentage (36.1 percent). Meanwhile, they have the 13th-highest opponent 3-point percentage (36.4 percent). So, shooting luck doesn’t seem to be influencing their success one way or the other.

A Cakewalk Schedule

While shooting has little to do with what’s going on in Golden State, its recent menu of games has been favorable. Now, in the NBA, no victory is guaranteed. With that said, the Warriors haven’t necessarily had to deal with a murderers’ row of opponents.

Nine of their last 18 games have been against teams under .500. Two have been against the Milwaukee Bucks (which have been treading mediocrity since adding Kyle Kuzma), Another two were against the New York Knicks (one without Jalen Brunson and another missing Karl-Anthony Towns), one was against the Houston Rockets without Fred VanVleet, and two were against the uninspiring Sacramento Kings.

Arguably their most challenging win came March 8 against the Detroit Pistons, which, despite their admirable one-season improvement, are still only sixth in the weaker Eastern Conference.

So, How Good Are The Warriors?

The Warriors are very, very good. Among Butler, Curry and Draymond Green, they have three players with a history of epic playoff showings, and their fit together has been incredible up to this point.

However, there are still some glaring issues as currently constructed. Namely, it’s a lack of two-way role players around those three centerpieces. Rookie Quinten Post has been a revelation after being selected 52nd overall last summer, but playing big minutes seems like a death sentence in the playoffs with his defensive limitations (22nd percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus).

Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis are better rim protectors than Post, but neither of them are skilled enough offensively to truly fit with Green, particularly because none of them stretch the floor as shooters. Buddy Hield is a lethal offensive player, but he’s not a good enough perimeter defender to flank Curry (34th percentile Defensive EPM).

Gary Payton II is an absolute pest on defense, but he can’t space the floor (32.2 percent 3-point shooter). In theory, Jonathan Kuminga is a two-way player, but he also isn’t much of a shooter (33.1 percent from three) and has too many off-ball warts defensively for my liking.

That basically leaves Brandin Podziemski and Moody to fill this void, but that solution isn’t perfect either. That’s a lot of weight to put on two young guys who don’t necessarily have significant playoff histories (plus, Podziemski has struggled most the year until recently). And a lineup of Curry-Podziemski-Moody-Butler-Green is likely too small to make it through four playoff rounds without facing matchup problems.

The Warriors have a lot of depth, but not enough high-end depth to hang with the NBA’s heaviest of hitters. Because of this, I don’t consider them an inner circle title contender. Still, any team outside the inner circle should be fearful of facing them, making the Warriors a threatening team in the West once again.