We’ve finally made it to the last week of the 2022-23 NFL regular season, and we’re still in a heated battle against the .500 mark with six picks left. Through 17 weeks, we’re 51-49-2 with our best bets for a grand total of +0.97 units.
Let’s finish the season on a high note and head into the playoffs with a profit. Week 18 best bets, let’s go!
NFL Week 18 Picks
2022 Best Bets Record: 39-44-2 (-5.03 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 1/6.
Favorite Favorite: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Houston Texans
I know the Texans are in disarray right now, but they aren’t stupid enough to win this game, are they? The Chicago Bears are actively gunning for the No. 1 overall pick by starting Nathan Peterman against the Minnesota Vikings, but Houston can lock up the first pick by simply losing to the Colts.
The Texans badly need a franchise quarterback, and they’ll have their pick between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud if they lose on Sunday. On the other sideline, Jeff Saturday wants to finish his disastrous Colts tenure on a high note.
Favorite Underdog: Los Angeles Rams +6 at Seattle Seahawks
You might think betting on teams that need to win in Week 18 against teams that have already been eliminated would be easy money, but that’s not actually the case. Since 1990, eliminated teams are 96-59-4 (61.9%) against the spread versus teams that need to win in the final two weeks of the regular season, per Action Network.
The Rams have no incentive to lose considering they don’t have a first-round draft pick in 2023, so Sean McVay will have his team ready to play and attempt to spoil the Seahawks’ playoff chances.
Favorite Over: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants over 43.5
The Eagles are in desperate need of a bounce-back performance after losing two straight games to put the No. 1 seed in the NFC in jeopardy. Jalen Hurts should be able to return this week against the same Giants team he diced up for 48 points just a few weeks ago, so I expect Philadelphia to put up a big number on Sunday.
Let’s hope Brian Daboll keeps the offensive starters in long enough to help our cause.
Favorite Under: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans under 39.5
The Titans have been an absolute disaster on the offensive side of the ball down the stretch of the regular season. Tennessee has lost six straight games to put the team in a win-or-go-home situation against the Jaguars, and it’s scored an abysmal 14.8 points per game over that stretch. Mike Vrabel knows the only chance he has to win this game is to keep it low-scoring, so I’m expecting a healthy dose of Derrick Henry and minimal possessions for both teams.
This is going to be an ugly game, but that’s good news for an under.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Washington Commanders +260 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I’m expecting the Eagles to jump out to an early lead against the Giants on Sunday afternoon, and if that game becomes a blowout at any point, the Cowboys will have no incentive to win their game against the Commanders. It’s possible we see Dallas’ backups for the entire second half of this game with the team locked into the No. 5 seed in the NFC.
If that was the case for the whole game, Washington would likely be favored to win. I’ll take the extra juice on a team that wants to see rookie quarterback Sam Howell light it up in his first career start.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 12-5 (+6.0 units)
Minnesota Vikings -1.5/Buffalo Bills -1
The Vikings can still steal the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win this week and a San Francisco 49ers loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Although that’s unlikely (the 49ers are 14-point favorites in the game), Minnesota will be trying its hardest to carry some momentum into the playoffs. The Bears, on the other hand, are actively trying to lose for a chance at the No. 1 pick in the draft, hence the decision to start Nathan Peterman.
As for the other leg, the Bills are still fighting for playoff seeding in the AFC. Buffalo is 5-1 against New England in the last six meetings, outscoring the AFC East rivals by an average of 14 points per game.
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