NFL Week 5 Picks: Best Bets, Underdog Moneyline, and Teaser of the Week
I’m not going to sugarcoat it. Week 4 was an absolute bloodbath for this column.
After a 15-3 start to the season in best bets, I came crashing back to earth with an 0-6 week to lose nearly seven units. That’s the bad news. The good news? I’m still 15-9 on the season, including 3-1 in underdog moneyline picks and 3-1 in my Teaser of the Week. If you’ve been riding since Week 1, you’d be up 6.99 units in all.
Deep breaths. Bad weeks happen. A lesser man would go dark and shy away from the board in Week 5 after an 0-6 debacle. But not me.
Let’s get back on track with my best bets for Week 5 in the NFL.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 12-8 (+5.19 units)
Favorite Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 first half at Arizona Cardinals
This is a glaring mismatch in every sense of the word. The Cardinals have struggled to pressure the quarterback this season, and they haven’t been effective at protecting Kyler Murray, either. Meanwhile, the strength of this Eagles roster is in the trenches, so they should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball all game.
Murray scares me as a backdoor cover candidate, so I’ll roll with the first-half line in this one. The Cardinals have yet to score a single point in the first quarter this year, and they rank dead last in the NFL in first-half scoring. Philly, on the other hand, leads the league in first-half scoring at 23 points per game.
This one could get out of hand quickly.
Favorite Underdog: New York Giants +8 vs. Green Bay Packers
If we’re all going to wake up early to watch the Giants and Packers face off in London, we might as well get some action down while we sip our Sunday morning coffee and kick off the day. I debated taking the under in this one, but I ultimately settled on the underdog G Men to stay inside the number.
New York’s offense isn’t much to write home about, but they have had success moving the ball on the ground thanks in large part to Saquon Barkley. The Giants rank second in the NFL in yards per rush (5.7) through four weeks, and the Packers have been gashed for 167 and 180 rushing yards in the last two games.
As long as Daniel Jones can make it through the entire game with his injured ankle, I think the Giants will keep this one close.
Favorite Over: New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks over 46.5
The Saints haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard this season, but this offense has performed much better than it may seem on paper. When New Orleans scored just 24 combined points in Week 2 and Week 3, Jameis Winston was clearly struggling with the four fractures in his back. Those weak performances also came against two of the better defenses in the NFL in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.
Against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4, the Saints put up 25 points without Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas. If Andy Dalton can move the ball like that against the Vikings, he should have no problem doing the same against a Seahawks defense allowing a league-worst 6.7 yards per play.
Geno Smith has also played surprisingly well to start the year, and I think he can get Seattle to 20 points on Sunday.
Favorite Under: Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys under 43.5
If this game took place in Week 1 and everyone was healthy, the total would be set well over 50. It might feel scary to take an under in the low 40s between these two teams, but I’m not scared one bit.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have been brutal on offense all season. LA is averaging just 4.7 yards per play through four weeks, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Cooper Kupp is the only weapon Stafford trusts, and the offensive line simply cannot keep its quarterback upright.
Going up against Micah Parsons and this deadly Cowboys pass rush, Stafford is going to be under pressure all day. On the other side, Cooper Rush has been efficient in his three starts, but I don’t see him having the same success against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
First team to 20 wins.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Cleveland Browns +114 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Browns are much better than what they showed last week against the Atlanta Falcons. Coming off an embarrassing loss, I think Cleveland gets back to the ground game and pummels Los Angeles between the tackles this week.
Led by Nick Chubb, the Browns rank second in the NFL in rushing yards per game through four weeks. On the other side, the Chargers rank second-to-last in rushing yards allowed per attempt. If Cleveland can keep the ball away from Justin Herbert by running the ball into the ground, it’ll have a great chance at pulling off the upset at home.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 3-1 (+1.8 units)
Cleveland Browns +8.5/San Francisco 49ers -0.5
I already explained why I like the Browns to pull off the upset against the Chargers, but they’re also the perfect teaser candidate this week. Lock them in with confidence.
As for the other leg, this one is simple. The 49ers have the best scoring defense in the NFL, while the Panthers have the worst offense in the league in terms of yards per game. This is going to be ugly for Baker Mayfield. San Fran might just have to reach double digits to pull out a victory.
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 10/8.
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