Believe it or not, the 2022-23 NFL season is just about two weeks away, which means there isn’t much time left to get in your preseason futures bets. I’ve already gone over some Super Bowl futures I like this year and broke down every division from a betting perspective, but now it’s time to shift our focus to win totals.
So, as the new season inches closer and closer, let’s check out the win totals for every NFL team and try to target some valuable bets along the way.
NFL 2022-23 season win totals: Bills and Buccaneers at the top
The Buffalo Bills (+600) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750) are the two biggest favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2023, so it’s no surprise they have the highest win totals in the league at 11.5. Five teams are tied behind them at 10.5, but only eight teams will enter the season with win totals of 10 or more.
Check out the full list of season win totals below:
|Team||2022-23 Win Total|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||11.5|
|Green Bay Packers||10.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs||10.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||10.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||10|
|San Francisco 49ers||9.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders||8.5|
|New England Patriots||8.5|
|New Orleans Saints||8.5|
|New York Giants||7.5|
|New York Jets||5.5|
NFL win totals best bets: Target the Titans and Panthers
Tennessee Titans UNDER 9.5 (-135)
The Tennessee Titans went 12-5 last season to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but I’m expecting a major step back from this team in 2022-23.
For one, Tennessee’s 12-win season was a bit of a fluke. The Titans won six games by three points or less, and two of those wins came in overtime. You have to expect some regression in close games this year.
As for the 2022-23 schedule, the Titans have a brutally tough road outside of their division. Tennessee will play the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, and Raiders this season. Even if they win four of those games, they’ll have to go 6-2 in their remaining eight games to hit this over.
Without A.J. Brown providing a downfield threat, opposing defenses will be able to key on Derrick Henry in a way they couldn’t over the last few seasons. This feels like a 9-8 team at best, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans finish with a losing record and miss the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5 (+105)
I’m not in love with the Carolina Panthers this year by any means, but this team is wildly mispriced in the betting market. There’s simply no way Carolina can be rated the same as the New York Jets (who haven’t won more than six games since 2017), the Chicago Bears (who might have the worst offense in the NFL), and the Jacksonville Jaguars (who also haven’t won more than six games since 2017).
Even the New York Giants, who haven’t gone over 6.5 wins since 2016, have a higher win total than the Panthers this season. What are we doing here?
Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback than he gets credit for. He has plenty of talent around him with Christian McCaffrey returning to full health and D.J. Moore as his No. 1 target. As for the defense, Brian Burns is one of the best in the business at rushing the passer, and the secondary is loaded with young talent in C.J. Henderson, Jaycee Horn, and Jeremy Chinn.
The Panthers have a much better roster than the other teams in this win total range, and the schedule isn’t too challenging. Carolina gets the Seahawks, Giants, Lions, Browns without Deshaun Watson, and Falcons twice in 2022-23. If they win five of those six games, the Panthers just need to go 2-9 in their remaining 11 games to hit this over.
At plus money, this is an auto bet.
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8/22.
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