Golf

TOUR Championship Betting Preview: Odds, Best Bets, and Longshots to Target at East Lake

After a long hiatus and months of uncertainty, the PGA Tour season finale is finally here. The top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will gather at East Lake Golf Club for the 2020 TOUR Championship this weekend.

Dustin Johnson has a clear advantage with the new scoring system, but there are a plethora of dangerous players right behind him with a chance to make a run at the title. This year’s TOUR Championship will be different to say the least, but that’s just what we’ve come to expect out of 2020.

Every player’s starting score and odds to win

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The 2020 TOUR Championship will feature a whole new scoring system than in years past. Instead of everyone starting at even par, players will start at varying scores depending on their place in the FedEx Cup standings.

Johnson will start at 10-under as the No. 1 “seed,” Jon Rahm will start at 8-under in the second spot, and so on. The final five players in the standings will start 10 back of Johnson at even par.

Here’s where the field will start at East Lake and each player’s odds to win the TOUR Championship.

  1. Dustin Johnson: -10 (+200)
  2. Jon Rahm: -8 (+300)
  3. Justin Thomas: -7 (+550)
  4. Webb Simpson: -6 (12/1)
  5. Collin Morikawa: -5 (20/1)
  6. Daniel Berger: -4 (28/1)
  7. Harris English: -4 (50/1)
  8. Bryson DeChambeau: -4 (22/1)
  9. Sungjae Im: -4 (80/1)
  10. Hideki Matsuyama: -4 (28/1)
  11. Brendon Todd: -3 (80/1)
  12. Rory McIlroy: -3 (20/1)
  13. Patrick Reed: -3 (66/1)
  14. Xander Schauffele: -3 (25/1)
  15. Sebastian Munoz: -3 (2/1)
  16. Lanto Griffin: -2 (250/1)
  17. Scottie Scheffler: -2 (80/1)
  18. Joaquin Niemann: -2 (150/1)
  19. Tyrrell Hatton: -2 (125/1)
  20. Tony Finau: -2 (50/1)
  21. Kevin Kisner: -1 (150/1)
  22. Abraham Ancer: -1 (250/1)
  23. Ryan Palmer: -1 (250/1)
  24. Kevin Na: -1 (400/1)
  25. Marc Leishman: -1 (500/1)
  26. Cameron Smith: E (300/1)
  27. Viktor Hovland: E (150/1)
  28. Mackenzie Hughes: E (400/1)
  29. Cameron Champ: E (250/1)
  30. Billy Horschel: E (200/1)

Outright picks

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Dustin Johnson +200

Obvious? Yes. Boring? You bet. But how can you not back this guy? Johnson doesn’t need any advantage on the field the way he’s been playing lately, but he has a huge one this weekend. DJ will start two shots ahead of the next closest player in the field at East Lake. With a win and two second-place finishes in his last three starts, it would be pretty shocking if Johnson doesn’t win the TOUR Championship going away.

Justin Thomas +550

+550 is a steep price to pay for a player starting three shots behind the leader, but if anyone can catch Johnson this weekend it has to be Justin Thomas. JT has a great course record at East Lake, as he’s posted just two scores over par in 16 rounds there. Thomas hasn’t finished worse than seventh at this event in four tries, and he should give Johnson his biggest challenge come Sunday.

Webb Simpson 12/1

It’s hard to imagine any player catching Johnson this weekend, so going deep into the field for an outright winner doesn’t make much sense. Webb Simpson, however, is close enough to make things interesting. Simpson took last week off to ensure a high starting position at the TOUR Championship, so he’ll begin just four back of the leader. He’s proved he can go low at East Lake, too, posting a 63 in the final round in 2013.

Longshots to target

Scottie Scheffler 80/1

Scottie Scheffler might be the hottest player on Tour not named Dustin Johnson right now. Scheffler has two top-five finishes in his last three starts, and he’s posted some wicked low scores in that span. The rookie has a 59, a 65, and two 66s in his last three tournaments. If someone is going to catch Johnson, they’re going to need a historically low round or two. Scheffler could be that guy.

Brendon Todd 80/1

Brendon Todd is another 80/1 longshot who’s been in tremendous form of late, but he starts one shot closer to Johnson than Scheffler. Todd has been as consistent as they come on Tour this season, and he’s not afraid to battle with the big guns. Todd at +175 to finish in the top 10 is also a great way to attack him this week.

Best bets for the 2020 TOUR Championship

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Brendon Todd over Sungjae Im: +130

The only reason Brendon Todd is an underdog in his matchup against Sungjae Im is his starting position. Todd will start the tournament at 3-under and Im will begin at 4-under. In a four-round tournament, though, that stroke will hardly matter. Todd has been a consistent stud all season, whereas Im has faltered of late with just two under-par finishes in his last seven appearances.

Tony Finau over Harris English: +110

Another situation where the better player is an underdog. Please and thank you. Tony Finau will start the TOUR Championship two strokes behind Harris English, but he thrives on difficult courses and can go low at any point. Finau has a great track record at East Lake, whereas English has shot over par in three of his four rounds there.

Scottie Scheffler over Patrick Reed: EVEN

See Scheffler, Scottie from earlier. He has a real chance to make some noise this weekend. Meanwhile, Patrick Reed hasn’t had his best game of late, and he has a horrible record at East Lake. In six appearances, Reed has finished under par just once. He has more bottom-24 finishes than top-15 finishes at the TOUR Championship. Scheffler rolls in this one.

All betting odds courtesy of Bovada. All stats courtesy of PGA Tour.