Welsh Grand National Trends Suggest Looking For Horses Aged 9 Or Younger

Andy Newton is on hand with his key Welsh Grand National trends and stats ahead of the big Chepstow race on Saturday 27th December.

So, when the final Welsh Grand National runners are out – these trends can be applied to the entries to help highlight those that have fit the best profiles based on past winners.

For example, 87% of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger and 78% of the last 23 successful horses won with 11st or less.

With the race also set to be shown on a busy Saturday on the ITV Racing schedule – alongside day two of the Kempton Christmas Meeting.

Plus Andy Newton gives you his 1-2-3-4 Welsh Grand National trends tips below.

Welsh Grand National Trends 2025: Key Stats To Find The Big Chepstow Winner

See below the key Welsh Grand National trends to apply this one of the main horse racing contests over the festive period.

You can also see Andy Newton’s daily horse racing tips, including NAP, NB and hot trainer stats here.

87% Of The Last 23 Welsh Grand National Winners Were Aged Nine Or Younger

In 2022, The Two Amigos won the Welsh Grand National aged 10 – then in 2015 and 2017 we had 11 and 13 year-old winners too.

However, despite this trio of double-figure aged winners, the Welsh Grand National trends tell us that 20 of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger.

We can also take this age stat a bit further by knowing that 17 of the last 23 winners were aged 8 or younger.

Backed up over the last two runnings with Nassalam winning aged six in 2023 and last year’s winner Val Dancer aged seven (watch below).

The horses aged 9+ are – Hung Jury (10), Pats Fancy (10). Onethreefivenotout (9), Dom Of Mary (9), Where It All Began (9), Git Maker (9), Monbeg Genius (9) and Mr Vango (9).

In short, we are really looking for horses aged eight or younger, but

WATCH: The Seven Year-Old Val Dancer Winning The 2024 Welsh Grand National 

Look For A Run Within The Last Eight Weeks

Coming into the Welsh Grand National fit from a run within the last seven weeks is another trend to look for.

Yes, a lot of the Chepstow runners will fit the bill here, but once the final runners are out this still might knock a few out.

Last year’s winner Val Dancer won at Carlisle 54 days prior to landing the Welsh National.

It looks like all of the runners this year ran 46 days or less ago.

Horses Carrying 11st Or Less Tick The Welsh Grand National Trends

Next up for the Welsh Grand National trends is the weight, as this is, of course, a handicap.

In 2023, Nassalam won the race carrying 11st 3lbs, but since 2011 (14 runnings) 11 winners had just 10st 10lbs or less on their backs.

If you want to whittle down the runners here a bit more, then 16 of the last 23 winners also carried 10st 8lbs or less in weight.

Including last year’s winner Val Dancer, who carried only 10st 6lbs.

This year’s runners with MORE than 11st are Monbeg Genius (11-3), Nassalam (11-4), Mr Vango (11-11), Haiti Couleurs (11-13) and Intense Raffles (12st).

Look For A Top Four Finish Last Time Out

Heading to Chepstow off the back of a top four run has also been a good way of finding the Welsh Grand National winner in recent times.

This is backed up with 21 of the last 23 winners (91%) recording a ‘top four’ run in their most recent outing.

Again, this was another feather in the cap for Val Dancer last year – having won his previous race.

These Welsh Grand National runners finished in the top four last time.

Mr Vango, Rock My Way, Collectors Item, Git Maker, Uncle Bert, O’Connell, Deafening Silence, Livin On Luco, Dom Of Mary, Jubilee Express, Holokea and De Legislator.

Chepstow Course Winning Form Worth Noting

The Welsh track of Chepstow is not an overly complicated one, but the stats also tell us that eight of the last 23 winners ran at the course last time out.

Plus 12 of the last 23 winners had won before at Chepstow – so course form is certainly worth looking back for.

The course winners this year are – Pats Fancy, Jubilee Express, Livin On Luco, Git Maker, Collectors Item, Monbeg Genius, Nassalam and Haiti Couleurs.

It’s also worth noting three of the last five winners won the Grand National Trial earlier that season.

Jubilee Express won this year’s race.

How Have The Welsh Grand National Favourites Fared?

The Welsh Grand National favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK don’t have a bad record in the race – considering it’s a very competitive contest.

Over the last 23 runnings, there have been five winning market leaders, which equates to a 22% return.

In 2023, the winner Nassalam was sent off as the 9-2 joint-favourite.

While last year’s 6/1 joint-jollies Jubilee Express and Iron Bridge finished second and pulled up.

The 2024 runner-up Jubilee Express is figuring well in the betting and could go off favourite again.

With Git Maker and Mr Vango just behind him.

Who Are The Best Welsh Grand National Trainers To Look For?

There hasn’t really been one standout trainer in the Welsh Grand National in recent times.

Gary Moore took the race in 2023 with Nassalam – which was his first success – while Welsh-based handlers Christian Williams and Evan Williams were on the roll of honour in 2019 and 2020.

The only multiple winners since 1997 have been Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill, Venetia Williams and Paul Nicholls – who all have two wins each to their names.

12 months ago, Shropshire-based Mel Rowley won the prize with Val Dancer, which was his first success in the race.

Last Year’s Welsh Grand National NOT Entered

If you were thinking of backing last year’s winner Val Dance – you can’t

As the eight year-old doesn’t have an entry.

However, even if he was running, he’d have a big Welsh Grand National trend for the horse to overcome.

Maybe this is why he’s not back for more!

This is because the last horse to win ‘back-to-back’ races was Bonanza Boy in 1988 and 1989.

Yes, since then, we’ve had Mountainous win in 2013 and 2015 – but not consecutive seasons.

The 2023 winner Nassalam does, however, hold an entry as he looks to win back his Welsh National crown.

But he’s not won a race since (six runs) and been pulled up in this last four.

On a plus, does return on exactly the same rating (145) as when winning this top festive race.

WATCH: Nassalam Winning The 2023 Welsh Grand National

Andy Newton’s Welsh Grand National Tips 1-2-3-4

Last year’s Welsh National runner-up Jubilee Express is back rated only 4lbs higher than 12 months ago and returned earlier this month to win the trial race.

Collectors Item was only 2 1/2 lengths back in second that day and with the Jonjo O’Neill runners in better form now, also looks interesting.

And is now 4lbs better off with Jubilee Express and has had the benefit of a run now too.

He’s also a proven course winner, which the stats like – as is Git Maker for the Jamie Snowden yard.

This nine year-old gets in with just 10-6 in weight and will be better for his return run at Lingfield last month.

The final pick is the Dan Skelton runner Deafening Silence, who was last seen running third to Konfusion in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle.

That form has also since been franked with the third Docpickedme going in since.

Skelton will be hoping to pick up some of the Welsh Grand National prize money to help in his quest in the British Trainers’ Championship.

• JUBILEE EXPRESS 
• COLLECTORS ITEM 
• DEAFENING SILENCE
• GIT MAKER 

Welsh Grand National 2025 Details

📅Date: Saturday 27th December 2025
⌚Time: 2:50pm
🏇Racecourse: Chepstow
🔄Trip: 3m 6 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £96,815
📺 TV: ITV / Sky Sports Racing

Welsh Grand National Winners – Last 10 Years