1000 Guineas 2025 Trends To Find Newmarket Winner

The market for the second English Classic of the season has been dominated by Godolphin’s Desert Flower – but does this exciting unbeaten 3 year-old filly tick the main 1000 Guineas 2025 trends and stats?

Let’s find out – as after being handed stall 1, there might be a big reason to take on Desert Flower.

Only Four Winning 1000 Guineas Favourites In The Last 23

We get going with a big 1000 Guineas trend that tells us this race can be prone to the odd big-priced winner.

Last year we saw the Roger Varian-trained Elmalka cross the line at odds of 28/1 with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

Plus, since 2018 we’ve also had 66/1 winner Billesdon Brook, Cachet in 2022 at 16/1 and Hermosa in 2019 at 14/1.

In fact, we’ve not had a winning 1000 Guineas favourite since 2016 and only one in the last 14 renewals.

Minding The Last 1000 Guineas Winning Favourite

Yes, you have to go back nine years to 2016 to find the last winning 1000 Guineas favourite – Minding.

While since 2002 there have only been four – with Special Duty (2010), Natagora (2008) and Finsceal Beo (2007) as the three other winning jollies in the fillies Classic.

All this means if you are against the red-hot favourite Desert Flower – this gives you something to cling to.

Oh, and with 15 of the last 23 winners coming from outside the top 3 in the betting – this is more evidence that you should not be put off with a bigger-priced horse.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien Has Won The 1000 Guineas Seven Times

Unlike the 2000 Guineas, top Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien ISN’T the leading handler in the 1000 Guineas – but he’s not far off it.

With seven wins in the second English Classic of the season, O’Brien is closing in on the record haul of trainer Robert Robson – who won the race nine times in the 1800’s.

Aidan O’Brien’s first win came with Virginia Waters in 2005 and this most recent in 2021 with Mother Earth – he’s won five of the last nine.

This year O’Brien will pin his hopes on Lake Victoria – who is unbeaten from five and has already won three Group Ones.

The latest being the Breeders’ Cup Fillies Turf at Del Mar last November (watch below).

Aidan O’Brien 1000 Guineas Winners

2005 – Virginia Waters
2012 – Homecoming Queen
2016 – Minding
2017 – Winter
2019 – Hermosa
2020 – Love
2021 – Mother Earth

65% Of The Last 17 Winners Came Between Stalls 2-8

The next 1000 Guineas trend to look out for is the draw – we’ll know this on Friday 2nd May.

This is because 11 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 2-8.

That said, a small word of caution here as the last two winners came from high draws in 17 and 16 – but 6 of the last 9 winners still ticked this 2-8 draw trend.

Sticking with the 1000 Guineas stall stats – it’s also worth mentioning that draws 7 and 8 have decent records – winning 6 of the last 23.

While, in contrast, those drawn in 1 have struggled of late – with just ONE placed horse from the lowest berth in the last 17 renewals.

Desert Flower has been handed gate 1!

1000 Guineas Runners Drawn Between 2-8

Simmering (2)
Elwateen (3)
Hey Boo (4)
Chantilly Lace (5)
Duty First (6)
Lake Victoria (7)
Remaat (8)

1,000 Guineas 2025 Betting Trends For Newmarket Race

21/23 – Top 3 finish last time out
17/23 – Won a Group race before
16/23 – Won between 2-3 times before
15/23 – Still to win a race over a mile (or further)
15/23 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
13/23 – Ran at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
13/23 – Won last time out
12/23 – Returned a double-figure price
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
10/23 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
10/23 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
9/23 – Irish-trained winners
9/23 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/23 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/23 – Past Group One winners
4/23 – Favourites
4/23 – Won by a US bred horse
4/23– Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/23 – French-trained winners
Only one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
11 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 13/1

You can also see out 2000 Guineas trends and stats here.

1,000 Guineas Trainer, Jockey and Owner Facts and Stats

Aidan O’Brien has trained 7 winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020), Mother Earth (2021)
Owner Shadwell have won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 4 times (1998, 2002, 2011 & 2023)

91% Of The Last 23 Winners Finished In The Top 3 Last Time Out

A top three finish is pretty much essential when it comes to finding the 1000 Guineas winner – backed up with a massive 21 of the last 23 winners fitting the bill here.

Of course, a large chunk of the 2025 1000 Guineas runners will head here with a top 3 run – but one of the fancied ones in Red Letter doesn’t.

She was fourth last time out in the Moyglare Stud Stakes – beaten 1 1/2 lengths behind Lake Victoria.

Sticking with the recent form stats – the final mention is that last time out winners are 56% (13/23) – which is a stat you can probably take either way.

Every runner – baring Red Letter and Simmering finished in the top 3 last time out.

70% Of The Last 23 Winners Had Won Between 2-3 Times Before

Finally, with 16 of the last 23 winners having won between 2-3 times in the past – then this tells us the 1000 Guineas has been a race that has often favoured the slightly less exposed runners.

The reason this stat could be significant is that the top two in the betting – Desert Flower and Lake Victoria – have both won more than three times.

Desert Flower has won four times, while Lake Victoria has five successes to her name.

So, yes – they both have by far the best form in the race – but are they vulnerable to a horse on the up, who is lesser exposed.

The stats say it’s possible – so we’ll find out.