With Flemington racecourse hit with a lot of rain over the last few days – and more on the way, we look at which of the 2025 Melbourne Cup runners have form on soft ground with conditions for ‘The Race That Stops The Nation’ expected to be very testing this year.
Melbourne Cup Runners 2025: Soft Ground Record For EVERY Entry ☔
See below the 24 Melbourne Cup runners for 2025 and their winning form on soft (or worse) ground.
Of this year’s entries heading to post – there are a massive TEN horses that are yet to win a race on ground described as ‘soft’ or ‘heavy’.
You can use this information alongside the Melbourne Cup trends to help narrow down your search for Tuesday’s big Flemington winner.
| Horse | Won On Soft (or worse) | Odds |
| 1. AL RIFFA | ✔️ | 5/1 |
| 2. BUCKAROO | ✔️ | 8/1 |
| 3. ARAPAHO | ✔️ | 40/1 |
| 4. VAUBAN | ✔️ | 20/1 |
| 5. CHEVALIER ROSE | ❎ | 33/1 |
| 6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE | ✔️ | 7/1 |
| 7. MIDDLE EARTH | ❎ | 40/1 |
| 8. MEYDAAN | ❎ | 20/1 |
| 9. ABSURDE | ✔️ | 16/1 |
| 10. FLATTEN THE CURVE | ✔️ | 18/1 |
| 11. LAND LEGEND | ❎ | 50/1 |
| 12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS | ✔️ | 66/1 |
| 13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARDS | ✔️ | 66/1 |
| 14. HALF YOURS | ✔️ | 6/1 |
| 15. MORE FELONS | ❎ | 50/1 |
| 16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR | ❎ | 28/1 |
| 17. FURTHER | ❎ | 22/1 |
| 18. PARCHMENT PARTY | ❎ | 50/1 |
| 19. ATHABASCAN | ❎ | 80/1 |
| 20. GOODIE TWO SHOES | ✔️ | 33/1 |
| 21. RIVER OF STARS | ❎ | 14/1 |
| 22. ROYAL SUPREMACY | ✔️ | 25/1 |
| 23. TORRANZINO | ✔️ | 33/1 |
| 24. VALIANT KING | ✔️ | 7/1 |
Note: All Melbourne Cup betting odds are subject to change
How Much Rain Has Fallen At Flemington Ahead Of The 2025 Melbourne Cup?
As of 3pm Monday (local time) the Flemington Park track had seen 23mm of rain – with more on the way.
Due to the wet conditions and this latest Melbourne Cup weather forecast, the track has been downgraded to ‘soft’
Weather experts are predicting another 10mm of rain on Tuesday – the day of the race, with showers expected to fall all through the day.
Flemington Weather Forecast for 2025 Melbourne Cup
Melbourne Cup 2025 Details and Date
📅Date: Tuesday 4th November 2025
⌚Time: 4:00am (GMT)
🏇Racecourse: Flemington (2m)
💰Winning Purse: $4,500,000 AUS
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing
Full Melbourne Cup prize money breakdown for 2025 – from 1st to 24th, plus what the jockey and trainer win.
Melbourne Cup Runners 2025 – Detailed Look At Their ‘Soft Ground’ Form
1. AL RIFFA
Top-weight, so the softer ground won’t help on that score – but on a plus this Joseph O’Brien Melbourne Cup runner won’t have any excuses on the deeper ground.
Won the G1 National Stakes on soft ground back in 2022 at the Curragh and also ran the classy City Of Troy to a length on soft ground in the 2024 Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.
Soft Ground Rating: 8/10
2. BUCKAROO
Used to be trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien and during that time won on heavy ground at the Curragh and Leopardstown.
Soft Ground Rating: 8/10
3. ARAPAHO
This Bjorn Baker-trained veteran has winning form on soft ground – when landing the Quayclean Zipping Classic at Caulfield in November 2024.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
4. VAUBAN
Former Willie Mullins-trained hurdler that was 11th in the Melbourne Cup last year.
Beat another Melbourne Cup runner Valiant King on soft ground at Naas in the Ballyroan Stakes in 2023. Plus also won twice when trained in France on soft ground.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
5. CHEVALIER ROSE
Ground could be an issue here for this Japanese raider – with his last two wins coming on ‘good-to-firm’ and has done most of this racing on good (or quicker).
Soft Ground Rating: 2/10
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE
French Melbourne Cup runner that will be fine on the ground – this grey has won on heavy in his homeland and also took the G3 Prix de Barbeville at Longchamp on ‘good-to-soft’.
Soft Ground Rating: 8/10
7. MIDDLE EARTH
Used to be trained by the Gosden team in the UK, but has only won on good-to-soft in the past – with the bulk of his runs since moving to Australia on good.
Soft Ground Rating: 5/10
8. MEYDAAN
UK raider from the Crisford camp – but ground is an unknown.
All his best runs to date have been on quicker – with his only try on soft seeing him running down the field at Longchamp in 2024.
Soft Ground Rating: 4/10
9. ABSURDE
Will be flying the flag for Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Willie Mullins – former hurdler that won the 2024 County Hurdle on heavy ground, so conditions will be fine.
The bigger worry is the draw (4) – with 19 of the last 21 winners coming from gates 5+.
Soft Ground Rating: 8/10
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE
Ground should be no issue for this Henk Grewe Melbourne Cup runner – having won on soft and heavy in the past.
Soft Ground Rating: 8/10
11. LAND LEGEND
Formerly trained in the UK with James Ferguson, and now with the powerful Chris Waller yard in Australia.
But ground would be a worry – his best form is on quicker and has been well beaten on his last two runs on soft and very soft.
Soft Ground Rating: 3/10
12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS
Ran second in the Quayclean Zipping Classic in 2024 and Catanach’s Jewellers MRC Foundation Cup at Caulfield in 2022 on soft ground – so conditions should be okay.
Soft Ground Rating: 6/10
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
Trained by Aidan O’Brien in the past in Ireland so no shock to see he’s won on soft ground in the past – including the 2022 Chester Vase.
Soft Ground Rating: 8/10
14. HALF YOURS
One of the big fancies for the race after landing the 2025 Caulfield Cup, but that came on good ground.
However, this Melbourne Cup runner will be fine on the ground – he won a maiden at Geelong on soft ground back in July 2024.
Plus was 3rd in the Mounties Group Handicap at Rosehill on good-to-soft back in August.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
15. MORE FELONS
Has won on yielding ground when trained in Ireland with Aidan O’Brien – but really since then his outings have been on quicker, so suggest the ground would be a worry.
Soft Ground Rating: 3/10
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
Won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time out and was 12 in the Melbourne Cup last year.
But all wins have been on a quicker surface than he’s likely to get in the Melbourne Cup this week. Is yet to race on anything softer than ‘good-to-soft’.
Soft Ground Rating: 2/10
17. FURTHUR
Trained by Andrew Balding in the UK and ground is a small worry. Lightly-raced but all wins to date have been on good or faster. Has tried heavy and soft once each and been beaten both times.
Soft Ground Rating: 4/10
18. PARCHMENT PARTY
US runner and no shock that the ground would be a big worry – with all runs coming on firm or quicker for this Bill Mott Melbourne Cup runner.
Soft Ground Rating: 2/10
19. ATHABASCAN
Second to Onesmoothoperator last time out at Moonee Valley – has won on good-to-soft in the past, but ideally you’d think would not want it too soft.
Soft Ground Rating: 4/10
20. GOODIE TWO SHOES
Recent wins have been on good ground – but this Joseph O’Brien runner, who is also owned by JP McManus, has won on yielding/soft ground in the past.
Soft Ground Rating: 6/10
21. RIVER OF STARS
Used to be housed with Ralph Beckett in the UK – and has okay form on good-to-soft, soft and heavy – but is yet to win on any of these.
That said did run a close second in the G1 Qatar Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp on soft (2024), so you feel she should be okay.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY
Won the Bella Group Wyong Cup Prelude on soft ground back in August, so conditions should be fine.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
23. TORRANZINO
Landed this season’s Geelong Cup on soft ground last month – beating the King’s Gilded Water by 1/2 a length.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
24. VALIANT KING
Another trained before in Ireland (Joseph O’Brien) – and won on soft ground at Navan over there back in May 2023. Has also run well (3rd) on good-to-soft at Randwick this season.
Soft Ground Rating: 7/10
