SportsCasting’s Andy Newton is on hand with his Melbourne Cup tips and 1-2-3 best bets ahead of ‘The Race That Stops The Nation’ – plus also gives his value 25/1 each-way pick for Tuesday’s big Flemington Park race.
You can also see Andy Newton’s daily horse racing tips, including Lucky 15, NAP, NB and value each-way picks here.
Melbourne Cup Tips 2025: 24 Runners Head To Post For Australia’s Biggest Race
With 24 Melbourne Cup runners then global horse racing fans have a big puzzle to solve at Flemington on Tuesday.
There has also been a lot of rain at the track in the days leading up to the race, so proven form in soft conditions is a must-have.
Being a race steeped in history, there are also a stack of Melbourne Cup trends that you could apply to the race – these will help put history on your side and pinpoint the horses with the best profiles based on past results and winners.
Like stats that tell us 19 of the last 21 winners were drawn 5 or higher or 14 of the last 21 coming from gates 9+.
Meaning those drawn very low – Athabascan (1), Vauban (2), Parchment Party and Absurde (4) – might have it all to do from these starting berths.
Having raced in the last four weeks is another big plus (18 of the last 21) – while horses from gates 10 (Valiant King) and 11 (Smokin’ Romans) have been placed in 11 of the last 21 runnings.
Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien has won the Melbourne Cup twice before and tries for a famous third with Al Riffa and Goodie Two Shoes.
While recent Caulfield Cup hero Half Yours has been popular since winning that Group One Handicap last month.
He’ll be looking to follow the 2023 winner Without A Fight, who became the first Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup winner in 22 years.
Both Al Riffa and Half Yours have been popular in the betting, but with only three winning favourites in the last 21 runnings – I’m looking just a bit further down the market.
Melbourne Cup Tips 2025: All The Signs Point To Presage Nocturne Hitting The Right Notes
The French don’t have a bad recent record in ‘The Race That Stops The Nation’ – winning the Melbourne Cup prize money twice since 2010 (Dunaden and American).
And I think with the recent rain a big plus, they’ve got another huge chance in 2025 – with PRESAGE NOCTURNE.
This 5 year-old grey comes over from the Alessandro Botti yard in Chantilly and certainly won’t mind the softer underfoot conditions.
He’s won on heavy at Longchamp in the past and his overall form with some sort of soft in the going description reads 2-5-1-2-2-2-2-1-3-7-1-3.
Meaning he’s only been out of the first three twice in 12 starts when racing on softer ground.
He would have acclimatised well in Australia too. Having been a good 4th to Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup in the middle of October.
While that day he was giving away 11lbs to the winner and now only has to give 5lbs – so he’s 6lbs better off for just 1 3/4 lengths.
The step up from 1m4f to 2m is fine too – having won over 1m7f in heavy ground and was also doing his best work at the death last time at Caulfield (watch below).
And earlier this year ran well to be third in the Group One Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp over 1m 7 1/2f.
Gate 9 looks fine too and regular rider Stephane Pasquier comes over for the ride so this grey will also have a familiar face on his back.
🥇PRESAGE NOCTURNE
🥈AL RIFFA
🥉VALIANT KING
WATCH: PRESAGE NOCTURNE Running Fourth In The Caulfield Cup Last Time Out
Al Riffa The Class Act In 2025 Melbourne Cup Line-Up
Of the rest, it’s hard to get away from AL RIFFA too.
The Joseph O’Brien yard knows what’s needed to win this race, with two wins in the past and so it’s not hard to see why this 5 year-old is a big Melbourne Cup tip too.
He brings some top form to the table for this handicap – yes, don’t forget it’s a handicap – as he’s a 4 length Group One winner of the Irish St Leger last time (watch below).
Al Riffa was also only 1 3/4 lengths behind Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up Rebel’s Romance at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke Stakes in June.
Plus last season ran City Of Troy to a length in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.
All these runs, I think you’ll agree – are top efforts when you consider he’s now in a handicap.
Yes, as a result he’s got top-weight to carry (9-4) and on softer ground this won’t be easy.
But few can deny he’s the class act in the race and could easily improve again for the step up in trip and turn this into a procession.
Gate 19 is okay as well – with seven of the last nine winners coming between stalls 12-21.
Connections have also booked Mark Zahra, who won the race in 2022 and 2023.
Joseph O’Brien also runs Goodie Two Shoes for owner JP McManus, who is having his first runner in the famous race.
Valiant King A Better Horse Than Last Year
VALIANT KING is also respected and he’s another with Joseph O’Brien links as he used to be trained by the Irish handler.
He’s now with the Chris Waller camp in Australia, who won this in 2021 with Verry Elleegant.
This horse was 13th last year as a 90/1 shot, but seems to have improved since. Plus also ran well in the recent Caulfield Cup (3rd), but is 4lbs better off with the winner Half Yours this time.
Draw 10 looks fine too, with 11 of the last 21 horses from gates 10 and 11 placed.
The 2020 winning rider Jye McNeil gets the leg-up.
Melbourne Cup Each-Way Tip: Royal Supremacy Could Crown Robbie Dolan A Flemington Hero Again
Last year there were very few Melbourne Cup tips on the shock 90/1 winner Knight’s Choice.
However, with this 5 year-old joining 100/1, 20/1 and 25/1 winners since 2015 – it’s shown that any horse can land this 2 mile handicap.
So, if you are looking for something at slightly bigger odds.
Step forward ROYAL SUPREMACY (e/w).
This Ciaron Maher runner has won twice since the middle of August and wasn’t disgraced when beaten only 2 1/2 lengths in the Caulfield Cup last time (5th).
He’s 5lbs better off with the winner Half Yours here. Plus before that run was a good winner of the Group One Asahi Super Dry Metropolitan at Randwick (watch below).
Draw 21 is fine too with the 2019 winner Vow And Declare coming from gate 21.
Oh, and he’s also being ridden by a certain Robbie Dolan, who won the Melbourne Cup last season.
Dolan will be looking to join recent two-time winning jockeys Mark Zahara and Kerrin McEvoy.
Melbourne Cup 2025 Details and Date
📅Date: Tuesday 4th November 2025
⌚Time: 4:00am (GMT)
🏇Racecourse: Flemington (2m)
💰Winning Purse: £2,227,723
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing
