ANDY NEWTON’s Aintree Festival Trends and 1-2-3 Picks For Day Three (Sat 5th April)

Sportscasting’s horse racing expert Andy Newton continues with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races on DAY THREE.

The three-day meeting concludes on Saturday with FIVE more live races on the main ITV Racing channel – which includes the Liverpool Hurdle and, of course, the Grand National – where last year’s hero I Am Maximus is back for more. 

🎧WATCH/LISTEN – You can also catch Andy Newton on this weekend’s FINAL FURLONG podcast with TalkSport’s Emmet Kennedy & Peter Michael – covering the best of the Aintree action on Saturday, including, of course, the Grand National.

AINTREE Festival Trends Day Three: Who Will Be The Next Name On The Grand National Hall-of-Fame?

1.20pm – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

🥇ACT OF AUTHORITY
🥈KAMSINAS
🥉CATCH HIM DERRY

The Nicky Henderson-trained Jeriko Du Reponet (NR) will be popular after his close second in the Pertemps at Cheltenham – but is up 5lbs for that and did look to have quite a hard race. Catch Him Derry was third and gets a 3lbs pull with Jeriko – he represents the Dan Skelton yard, who have won the last two renewals.

However, ACT OF AUTHORITY ran on well in the Martin Pipe to be second (watch below) and there could be more to come over this longer trip for the in-form Olly Murphy team. That day jockey Lewis Saunders couldn’t claim – but he can take off 7lbs today, which offsets (and a bit more) the 5lb rise in the ratings.

Of the rest, course winner Kamsinas will be fresher having missed Cheltenham and looks overpriced.

📈 Key Aintree Festival Trends:

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

🥇REGENT’S STROLL
🥈KAPPA JY PYKE
🥉HORACES PEARL

With Lulamba now a non-runner, this has opened up the race.

Koktail Divin won well at Leopardstown last time, but I’d query that form with it taking some knocks since.

So the main pick is REGENT’S STROLL who has had his knockers but a confidence boost last time at Wincanton will help and despite losing in the Challow, the form of that 4th doesn’t look too bad now the winner The New Lion has won the Turners.

Nicholls also sticks the first-time cheekpieces on and the yard have been having a decent meeting so far.

Last year’s NH Flat race winner here Horaces Pearl can also go well for the in-form Fergal O’Brien yard, who have taken their time with him since. But he’s another 7 year-old.

While the Willie Mullins runner Kappa Jy Pyke could be overpriced – having run well for a long way in the Turners at Cheltenham (6th), but prior to that was a nice winner at Punchestown. The flatter track and shorter trip will also help.

📈 Key Aintree Festival Trends:

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

🥇HAPPYGOLUCKY
🥈CRUZ CONTROL
🥉SAM BROWN

Ultima winner Myretown would have been popular to follow-up, but is now a non-runner.

We’ve actually got three previous winners of the race back for more – Cruz Control won last year and he’s back just 3lbs higher. Sam Brown won in 2022 and was runner-up 12 months ago too, so this 13 year-old has to be considered despite his age.

While the 2021 hero HAPPYGOLUCKY (e/w) won this as a 7 year-old and is back aged 11. He was also a fine 4th in the Ultima to Myretown but would have been 16lbs better off had that horse been running and has only had two runs this season so might actually improve again, even though he’s 11.

The other to note is Imperial Saint – he loves it here and is 3-3 at the track. But is 7lbs higher than his last Aintree win and is trying this longer trip for the first time.

📈 Key Aintree Festival Trends:

3.05pm – Ivy Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

🥇STRONG LEADER
🥈TEAHUPOO
🥉THE WALLPARK

The Stayers’ Hurdle runner-up Teahupoo is the one to beat here – being the clear top-rated. But this will be his first run at Aintree and you feel he had a hard race last time out. The slightly quicker ground is probably not ideal either and so at the prices he’s little value. Will the track also suit? We’ll find out.

While the form of the Elliott camp continues to be a worry – but they did have some winners at Wexford on Friday.

Home By The Lee has been touted this season as a better horse, but he’s 0-6 outside of Ireland and I’m not sure what all the fuss about him is personally – plus he was pulled-up in this race back in 2023. No thanks.

Mullins is having a top meeting so his Kitzbuhel will be a good option for many, having won well at Gowran Park last time over 2m. But this is a big leap up in trip and we’ve only seen four 5 year-olds winners ever. Oh, and strangely Mullins is still to win this race.

So that leaves us with the Stayers’ Hurdle third The Wallpark, who comes from the Gordon Elliott yard, who have won this race twice in the last three years – both times with Mark Walsh. He’s won six of his 13 starts over hurdles and looks the sort to have more to come at just 7.

However, last year’s winner STRONG LEADER looks great value in a race he’d have been trained for all season.

The Olly Murphy yard are going great guns too and he’s had the same prep as last year – when running in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day. His form here at Aintree is a solid 1-2-1 and will be a lot fresher than most.

Of the rest, Gwennie May Boy is a CD winner and was a good winner of the Rendlesham at Haydock last time out. With Grand National hope Beauport 7 lengths back in second. He looks a tad over-priced too.

📈 Key Aintree Festival Trends:

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

🥇STUMPTOWN
🥈MINELLA COCOONER
🥉MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

There are a stack of Grand National trends to look at ahead of the biggest race of the week – but the ones I’m focusing on will be age, weight, debut in the race and looking out for headgear.

Last year’s Irish National winner Intense Raffles will be hoping to repeat what I Am Maximus did last year and win both races.

But at the age of 7, this worries me with just two National winners aged 7 since 1940. Another of the big fancies Iroko is also aged 7, so he’s overlooked too.

In terms of age – 8 0f the last 9 have been aged 8 or 9 (with 5 of the last nine winners aged 8). 14 of the last 16 winners were having their first run in the race, while the weight stat tells us horses carrying 11st 7lbs or more (top 5 on the card) might have it to do.

The final bonus stat is that 5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie – with 6 of the last 7 having some sort of headgear. Only I Am Maximus since 2017 hasn’t worn any form of headhgear.

With all this in mind………

The four I’m going to pin my hopes on are the recent Cross Country Chase winner – STUMPTOWN, who is in the form of his life, will stay the trip and loves these sort of fences. He’s taken to go well for Gold Cup winning trainer Gavin Cromwell.

MINELLA COCOONER is also interesting for the in-form Willie Mullins.

He seems to love this time of the year – running third in the Irish National and winning the bet365 Gold Cup last season. He was a fine 4th in the BobbyJo last time behind Nick Rockett but gets a handy 6lb pull this time.

The third pick is MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, who was a 7th last year at the age of 7. He was bang-there jumping the last but just faded around the elbow. He’s 7lb better off with I Am Maximus and rated a pound overall lower. Despite 14 of the last 16 winners having their first run in the race, that experience will help and he’s now the perfect age at 8.

Three Card Brag gets in with a light weight, but the form of the Elliott yard is a worry.

Of those at bigger prices, Monbeg Genius is interesting having got back to winning ways at Uttoxeter last time out – the Jonjo O’Neill yard won the National with Don’t Push It in 2010. Oh, he sports a tongue-tie too.

While if lasting out Hitman might be overpriced, as could last year’s third and former Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.

📈 Key Aintree Festival Trends:

GOOD LUCK 🤞