Betfair Chase Tips: THREE Reasons To Oppose Favourite Grey Dawning

There will be a lot of Betfair Chase tips flying about for hot Haydock favourite Grey Dawning on Saturday – after all he’s from the in-form Dan Skelton yard and was runner-up last year. 

However, there will also be a lot of horse racing punters looking to take this good-looking grey on, including Sportscasting’s Andy Newton.

Grey Dawning The Right Betfair Chase Favourite – But Is He Value?

Firstly, Grey Dawning is a horse I like – let’s be clear on that.

He’s also the right Betfair Chase favourite for Saturday’s big ITV Racing contest at Haydock.

Plus, is probably the leading British staying chasing hope this season – which might say more about the strength of the Irish challenge.

But we also know greys like this race – with Bristol De Mai mopping up three wins over the years.

However – is Grey Dawning value in the Betfair Chase?

The answer to this question obviously depends on if you think he’ll win or not – as, regardless of his price – you’ll probably still be wading in if you feel he can win.

On a plus for him, it looks like the ground isn’t going to be as bad as some thought.

He’ll not want it to be a bog – whereas others like Royale Pagaille will.

But, for me – I’m siding against this Dan Skelton runner, mainly due to him being a tad short in the betting.

And also having several negatives to cling to for those looking elsewhere for the winner.

Betfair Chase Tips: Oppose Grey Dawning With These THREE Factors 

So, what are the factors that many people’s Betfair Chase tip Grey Dawning will have to overcome?

1. Has Been Beaten In The Race Before

Cast your mind back to twelve months ago and heading into the Betfair Chase, it has a similar feel to this year’s renewal.

Grey Dawning was sent off the 15/8 jolly and just behind him in the market was the 2023 winner Royale Pagaille.

However, despite hitting the front in the closing stages, Grey Dawning was outstayed by the Venetia Williams horse and ended up taking silver.

In a recent interview Dan Skelton said he thought Grey Dawning stayed last year – but was just outstayed (if that makes sense).

So – will it be more of the same in 2025?

As mentioned, the better ground this year will certainly favour Grey Dawning more – last year it was run on soft.

But I’m still not 100% sure (regardless of the ground) he stays this 3m 1 1/2 trip – we’ll see.

This Haydock race has also been a top contest for past Betfair Chase winners going in again.

Since it was first run in 2005, we’ve seen nine runnings won by a past winner (five different horses) – which is, of course, a plus for Royale Pagaille.

2. Is Just One-From-Six In Grade One Races 

Next up is Grey Dawning’s record at the top table.

He’s contested six Grade One races in hurdles or chasers and has only WON ONE.

That top tier win came in the Turners Novices’ Chase at Aintree in 2024 (watch below).

But has also been beaten in five – including in this race in 2024.

Plus was also pulled up in the King George – a race he won’t even have an entry in this season – and was second to Gaelic Warrior in the Bowl Chase at Aintree in April.

Therefore, this equates to just a 17% SR in Grade One race in his career – is that good enough?

See here Grey Dawning’s Grade One Career Record 

3. Doesn’t Have A Great Record First Time Out 

The third and final negative for me is Grey Dawning’s record first time out.

Why?

Because he’s been beaten on his seasonal reappearance for the last three seasons.

Finishing second at Aintree in November 2022, third at Exeter in 2023.

And, of course, was second in the Betfair Chase in 2024.

While these trio of defeats also saw him sent off well-fancied in the market – 10/11, 85/40 and 15/8.

Any More Rain Would Be A Negative 

Finally, it’s our old friend – the weather.

At the moment Haydock is describing the ground as ‘good-to-soft’ but if there is anymore rain about this would be a big negative for me for Grey Dawning.

That recent Dan Skelton interview said, they will be running regardless – but you also got the impression that he’d certainly not want it heavy.

Yes, the form students out there will see that Grey Dawning has won in the past on heavy (Warwick).

But this came back in 2023 in a Grade Two Novices’ Hurdle – oh and it was also over 2m5f – not the Betfair Chase trip of 3m 1 1/2f.

So, yes, – he handles heavy ground – but does he handle it over the longer trips?

They jury is very much out on this.

However, the good news (at the moment) is the rain looks like it might be staying away.

Who Are The Main Players Against Grey Dawning?

Saturday’s Betfair Chase runners are also expected to be just a handful.

So, for those taking on Grey Dawning, there will probably only be two or three viable options.

HAITI COULEURS

Last year’s NH Chase and Irish Grand National winner is one of potential staying chaser improvers this season – but this will be his biggest test yet.

There is some talk of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he’s 25/1 – but that is still some way off and will need to probably win this (or at least run well) if that route is taken.

However, there is a chance that could happen.

This Rebecca Curtis-trained eight year-old keeps improving and will head to Haydock having won his last three.

He’ll also be more race fit that Grey Dawning, having won over hurdles at Newbury in early November.

While having won the Irish National over 3m5f on soft/heavy ground, then staying won’t be an issue.

He’s got 12lbs to find with Grey Dawning on the official ratings, but with a certain Sean Bowen in the saddle – there is every reason to think he can make some inroads in the difference in their marks.

Trainer Peter Bowen won this pot in 2008 with Snoopy Loopy, who has weirdly won the most Betfair Chase prize money in the race’s history – despite this coming 17 years ago.

So, maybe his son Sean can also get on the Betfair roll of honour too.

HANDSTANDS

This Ben Pauling chaser is another possible improver this season over fences.

He was a decent Listed hurdle winner and did well over the bigger obstacles last term – including winning the Grade One Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown.

Yes, he was beaten on his return run at Carlisle – but the winner Resplendent Grey is a good horse too and this step back up in trip should suit.

Handstands has also won on heavy ground in the past and four times on soft – so any more of the wet stuff will be fine.

ROYALE PAGAILLE

This 11 year-old needs no introduction in the Betfair Chase – or Haydock for that matter.

He loves this place, with five of his six chase wins coming here, two in this race.

His only other win over fences came at Kempton but will be looking to add to his top Haydock course record on Saturday.

But he’s not won since taking this race 12 months ago and is no spring chicken at 11.

However, he’s sure to be primed for his title defence again and, as mentioned, this place seems to give him 7lbs more in the ratings.

If Royalle Pagaille can go in again, he’ll be the joint oldest Betfair Chase winner with Kauto Star (2011).

And also join other three (or more) winners in the race – Cue Card, Bristol De Mai and the great Kauto Star.

There probably won’t be a bigger cheer all day, if Pagaille can ‘Royalle’ it up at Haydock one last time.

Betfair Chase Race Details 2025

📅Date: Saturday 22nd November 2025
⌚Time: 3:00pm
🏇Racecourse: Haydock
🔄Trip: 3m 1 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £112,540
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

Betfair Chase Tip 2025: Side With Royale Pagaille and Haiti Couleurs Against Grey Dawning

Despite only a handful of runners against Grey Dawning – I’ll be honest, I’m finding it hard to pick between ROYALE PAGAILLE and HAITI COULEURS. 

In short, Royale Pagaille is a horse I’ve banged the drum for in this race for the last two years. And been right both times.

So, how can I oppose him?

But then I look at his age and the fact he’s not won since taking this race – it’s a real head-scratcher.

Then there’s a potential ‘new kid on the block’ in Haiti Couleurs, who we know will stay and love the ground.

Oh, and will also have by-far the best jump jockey riding him in Sean Bowen.

He’s also race fit after a win at Newbury and I’m not really sure there is a 12lb difference between him and Grey Dawning – as the ratings suggest.

Therefore, it’s a tough call – maybe we just lay Grey Dawning. Then we’ve got ALL the other running for us.

Or maybe we couple Pagaille and Couleurs up and hope for a dead-heat!

Regardless, despite the small numbers, what the race lacks in quantity it makes up for in quality and is certainly one not to be missed this weekend.

Good luck.

Betfair Chase Winners Since 2005