How EVERY Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Runner Has Performed On Soft and Heavy Ground

-With the current Prix de l’Arc Triomphe going already ‘soft’ and weather experts predicting more rain in Paris over the weekend – we look at the Longchamp going and the horses that have proven form when the mud is flying. 

Plus, we also reveal the Friday, Saturday and Sunday Longchamp weather forecast – so racing fans can get a better idea of what to expect come Arc Day on Sunday.

Longchamp Going For Prix de l’Arc Triomphe – How EVERY Horse Has Acted On Softer Ground 🌧️

With the 2025 Longchamp going expected to be soft, very soft or even heavy we look at the winning form for EVERY Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runner with give underfoot.

Note: The dash in the table means that horse is yet to run on that particular ground. 

Only THREE Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Horses Have Won On Heavy Ground 🌧️

If the expected rain hits Paris in the coming days, then the already ‘soft’ Longchamp going could easily get worse.

Meaning we could get a repeat of last year’s race – when Bluestocking powered home on ground described as ‘very soft’.

Looking at the above table, of the 18 Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runners – this tells us only seven have won before on ‘very soft’ going.

While JUST THREE horses have winning form on ‘heavy’ ground.

Previous ‘Very Soft’ Gound Winners ☔

• Croix Du Nord
• Cualificar
• Kalpana
• Quisisana
• Estrange (NR)
• Los Angeles
• Arrow Eagle

Previous ‘Heavy’ Ground Winners ☔

• White Birch
• Gezora
• Aventure

AVENTURE

Last year’s Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runner-up Aventure certainly won’t mind the rain.

This Christophe Ferland-trained 4 year-old took the silver 12 months ago on very soft ground (watch below).

While has won on ‘soft’ and also bolted up by 7-lengths in the 2023 Prix de Royaumont at Chantilly on ‘heavy’.

His overall form in soft, very soft or heavy reads: 2-1-1-2-2.

While if going off as market leader – the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends tell us seven of the last 23 favourites have won.

GEZORA

This Francis-Henri Graffard trained 3 year-old was last seen running second to Aventure in the Prix Vermeille last month on ‘good-to-soft’ Longchamp going (watch below).

But could easily eat into that 1 1/2 length defeat if the ground turns softer.

Why?

Well, this Almanzor filly has won of ‘soft’ in the past and also tasted victory on ‘heavy’ ground in the 2024 Darley Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville last October.

WHITE BIRCH

The only other 2025 Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runner with winning form on heavy ground is the Irish raider White Birch.

This grey won the Mooresbridge Stakes on soft ground in 2024 and has also recorded two ‘heavy’ ground wins in his career.

One at the Curragh in the Alleged Stakes in 2024 and the other in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in 2023 (watch below).

When Is The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2025?

📅Date: Sunday 5th October 2025
⌚Time: 3:05pm
🏇Racecourse: Longchamp
💰Winning Purse: £2,361,157
📺 TV: ITV Racing Schedule / Sky Racing

Will Favourite Minnie Hauk Like The Soft Longchamp Going?

The expected 2025 Prix de l’Arc Triomphe favourite will be Minnie Hauk, who is named after a 1800’s US opera singer – but will the Longchamp going be to her liking?

She’s only raced six times (5 wins) and you have to say the jury is out – with only one win/run coming on ‘soft’.

This came in her maiden win at Leopardstown last October, while her most recent win in the Yorkshire Oaks came on ‘good-to-firm’ (watch below).

She’s by wonder horse Frankel, who only raced twice on soft – but won both times.

While her dam Multilingual only raced once (6th good-to-firm).

Minnie Hauk was supplemented for the race on Wednesday for £120k. She’ll join last year’s third Los Angeles as the two Aidan O’Brien Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runners this year.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien does seem to like nine years between his Arc winners though – winning in 2007 (Dylan Thomas) and 2016 (Found).

So maybe this trend will carry on in 2025?

Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Going An Unknown For Japanese Raider Byzantine Dream

We are yet to see a Japanese winner of the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe – but this year they have a good chance of putting that right.

They’ve three leading fancies in Croix Du Nord, Alohi Alii and Byzantine Dream, who Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride.

But will they like the softer Longchamp going?

Croix Du Nord should be fine – having won the Prix du Prince d’Orange on ‘very soft’ ground (watch below).

But he’s been handed a wide draw in 17.

Alohi Alii has won on soft ground too – when taking the G2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano back in August at Deauville.

Draw 4 looks great for this Japanese raider too with 18 of the last 23 coming from 8 or lower.

However, anyone liking Byzantine Dream might have to take him handling the ground on trust.

Yes, he beat last year’s Arc favourite Sosie last time in the Prix Foy on ‘good-to-soft’ (watch below) – but all his other runs have been on much quicker ground.

While draw 15 for this Oisin Murphy-ridden Far East runner is not ideal.

Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Going and Weather Forecast 2025

See below the expected Longchamp and Prix de l’Arc Triomphe weather forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The current Longchamp going is described as ‘SOFT’ – but this could change with more rain on Friday and Saturday.

But the better news is – come Arc day things could dry up.

Friday 3rd October 2025 – Longchamp Weather Forecast:

Saturday 4th October 2025 – Longchamp Weather Forecast:

Sunday 5th October 2025 – Longchamp Weather Forecast:

Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Going – The Last Five Years 

See below the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe and Longchamp going over the last five years.

With four of the last five being ‘very soft’ or ‘heavy’.

• 2024 – Very Soft (Bluestocking)
• 2023 – Good-to-Soft (Ace Impact)
• 2022 – Very Soft (Alpinsita)
• 2021 – Heavy (Torquator Tasso)
• 2020 – Heavy (Sottsass)

WATCH: Alpinista Winning The 2022 Prix de l’Arc Triomphe On Heavy Ground