The divide between LIV Golf and the PGA Tour is expanding by the day, but I’m not here to talk about that exhausting rivalry. It’s U.S. Open week, and there’s money to be made as the best players in the world prepare to tackle the toughest test in golf at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass.
So, let’s put the drama aside and try to find some winners, shall we?
Outright picks to target
Jon Rahm +1500
There’s no better driver of the golf ball in the world than Jon Rahm right now. The Spaniard ranks first on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and total driving this season, and there really isn’t a close second.
Rahm also ranks first on Tour in greens in regulation percentage (72.34%), which will be paramount at The Country Club because of its tiny greens and the treacherous rough surrounding them. In last year’s U.S. Open triumph, Rahm proved his mental toughness has come a long way since his hot-head days of old. I think he should be the betting favorite over Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, so I’ll take a stab at 15-1 here.
Collin Morikawa +3200
We know Collin Morikawa is going to hit fairways and greens all week. He’s still at the top of the elite tier of ball strikers on planet earth. But that putter… woof.
Morikawa has lost strokes putting in more than half of his measured rounds this season, including in four straight. As bad as he’s been on the greens of late, he only needs to see a few go in early in the tournament to break out of his slump and put together a solid putting week. This 32-1 price is simply too high for a player of Morikawa’s caliber on a course that should fit his strengths perfectly. We just need him not to vomit all over the greens like he’s done consistently for two months.
Best Bets for 2022 U.S. Open
Brian Harman top-40 finish +145
Wait, what? Brian Harman? The guy who stands barely 5-foot-7 and weighs 150 pounds soaking wet? You’re betting on him to play well at a long, grueling U.S. Open venue?
Why, yes. Yes, I am.
You might find this surprising because his game — at least on paper — doesn’t scream U.S. Open success, but Harman plays his best golf on the toughest courses. In his last four U.S. Open starts, the lefty has recorded finishes of T19, T38, T36, and T2. Most of those courses played longer than The Country Club will play this week, too.
Harman isn’t long off the tee, but he consistently keeps it in the short grass (12th on Tour in driving accuracy). He’s also on a bit of a hot streak with six top-40 finishes in his last eight starts. Let’s make it seven in his last nine to cash this ticket.
Cameron Young top-20 finish +180
Cameron Young has competed in two U.S. Opens in his young (no pun intended) career, but he’s a completely different player this season. The Wake Forest product has five top-three finishes in 18 starts this season, and he’s coming off his best major finish (T3) at last month’s PGA Championship.
Young can absolutely bomb it off the tee, and his short game has been exceptional for two months. I don’t trust him to get his first PGA Tour win at a U.S. Open, but his game is perfect for a high finish here.
Tony Finau top-10 finish +335
Tony Finau was in a bit of a funk to start the year, but he’s starting to look like the player you could pencil in for a top-10 finish in nearly every event again. The American has gained strokes on the field in each of his last eight starts, and he’s gained strokes in every category three starts in a row.
With two top-10s in his last four U.S. Open appearances, I’m willing to bet Finau can hit the board again with his stellar current form.
All betting odds courtesy of Oddschecker as of 6/15.
All stats courtesy of PGA Tour.