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The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won an AFC South title since the 2014 season, but they’ll enter the 2022-23 campaign as the prohibitive betting favorites to win the division. By upgrading at quarterback from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan and adding Stephon Gilmore to this already-feared defensive unit, Indy should be a legitimate threat to take down the big boys in the AFC this year.

But I’m not targeting the Colts for any of my best bets in this division. So, let’s check out the betting breakdown of the AFC South and go over why I think the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars present better value in the futures market.

AFC South betting odds

Jonathan Taylor runs the ball against the Titans.
Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball against the Tennessee Titans | Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Titans have won two straight AFC South titles, but they aren’t the betting favorites to win a third in 2023. Instead, the new-look Colts have been pegged as the favorites to win the AFC South at -115 odds. The Titans are right behind at +160, while the Jaguars (+750) and Houston Texans (+2500) are well back on the odds board.

Check out the complete betting breakdown of the AFC South below:

AFC South win totals
Indianapolis Colts: 9.5
Tennessee Titans: 9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5
Houston Texans: 4.5

Odds to win AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: -115
Tennessee Titans: +160
Jacksonville Jaguars: +750
Houston Texans: +2500

Odds to win AFC
Indianapolis Colts: +1200
Tennessee Titans: +1500
Jacksonville Jaguars: +4400
Houston Texans: +10000

Odds to win Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts: +2200
Tennessee Titans: +3000
Jacksonville Jaguars: +12000
Houston Texans: +30000

AFC South best bets


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Titans to win AFC South: +160

I see this division shaking out as a two-horse race between the Colts and Titans. Considering both teams have the same win total for the 2022-23 season, it’d be foolish not to take a chance on the +160 underdog.

The Titans have gone over their preseason win total in each of Mike Vrabel’s four years as the head coach. They’re coming off a 12-win season that landed them the No. 1 seed in the loaded AFC, and yet, they continue to be disrespected by oddsmakers. Losing A.J. Brown hurts, but Derrick Henry will be back to full strength, and Ryan Tannehill has proven he knows how to win in this league.

As for the Colts, Matt Ryan is 37 years old. He’s thrown at least 11 interceptions in each of the last three seasons. Are we sure he’s the savior Indianapolis is making him out to be?

In what should be a tight division race, give me the plus money bet on the more proven team.

Jaguars OVER 6.5 wins (+115)

It couldn’t have been more of a disaster for Trevor Lawrence in his rookie year, and none of it was his fault. Urban Meyer was an utter embarrassment as an NFL head coach who did nothing to set the former No. 1 pick up for success.

I’m expecting big things from Lawrence in Year 2 with Doug Pederson calling the shots. The return of Travis Etienne, plus the additions of Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Brandon Scherff, and Zay Jones, will give this offense a huge boost.

The Jaguars get to play the Texans twice, plus they drew the Washington Commanders, New York Jets, New York Giants, and Detroit Lions on the schedule. Reaching seven wins should be more than doable for a roster on the rise with a competent coaching staff.

All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 7/25.

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