2025 Arizona Diamondbacks Season Preview: Ready to Take the Next Step?

A year ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks stood at the doorstep of something special. The offense led all of baseball in runs scored. The fanbase rallied behind a team that played with speed, energy, and purpose. But after 162 games, it wasn’t enough. Two tiebreakers. No playoffs. A season of promise left without a postseason chapter.

The response? Go all in.

Owner Ken Kendrick made a statement with a six-year, $210 million deal for Corbin Burnes—the largest contract in franchise history. Josh Naylor arrived via trade, helping to replace the power lost with Christian Walker’s departure. This team isn’t just trying to get back to the playoffs. They’re trying to join the National League elite.

An Offense That Must Prove It Again

Scoring runs wasn’t the issue last season. The Diamondbacks led the majors with 886. They didn’t just improve from 2023—they exploded, topping their highest total of the 2000s.

And yet, there’s a lingering question: Was it sustainable?

• Corbin Carroll had a down year but still crossed the plate 121 times, 28 more than any other player. His late-season surge (.267/.360/.555 from August 18 on) is a reason for optimism, but he wasn’t the same force throughout the year.
• Ketel Marte (36 HR) and Eugenio Suárez (30 HR) powered the lineup, but Walker and Joc Pederson (49 combined HR) are gone. That’s a big hole to fill.
• Josh Naylor hit 31 homers for Cleveland last year—but had just 37 combined the two seasons before. Was his 2024 power surge an outlier?

Corbin Carroll this Spring:
6-10 3 HR, 2 SB, 8 RBI, 2.167 OPS pic.twitter.com/q9Bmv3VuPG

— Goldschmidt Happened (@GoldyHappens) February 28, 2025

Perhaps the biggest red flag? Arizona was historically good with runners in scoring position.

• They hit .285/.364/.487 in those spots, leading to a .359 wOBA—the best mark since the juiced-ball era of 2019.
• The last team to put up those kinds of numbers? The 2023 Texas Rangers. A year later, they dropped nearly 70 runs in the standings.

Arizona doesn’t need to collapse offensively to regress—they just need to return to normal. And if that happens, can the pitching staff step up?

The Burnes Effect – and a Rotation With Questions

For years, Arizona has been one frontline starter away from feeling like a true contender.

They found their answer. Corbin Burnes is here.

• Since 2020, Burnes ranks second in ERA (2.88), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings (816.2).
• His durability and consistency bring an element this rotation desperately needed.
• He posted a 2.92 ERA over 194.1 innings last season—exactly the kind of arm Arizona can rely on.

Corbin Burnes bump day for the DBacks 👀

(via @Dbacks)pic.twitter.com/dOeej8MOeG

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) February 21, 2025

But who follows him?

• Zac Gallen (43-19 since 2022, three-time Cy Young top-10 finisher) is a legitimate No. 2.
• Merrill Kelly has been rock-solid, but injuries limited him to just 13 starts last year.
• Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Jordan Montgomery round out the group—but each comes with concerns and possible high ceilings.

Rodriguez was Arizona’s big pitching addition last offseason, but a lat strain limited him to 10 starts. He has the talent—but can he stay on the field?

Pfaadt made 32 starts but struggled to strand runners, leading to an ERA nearly a full run higher than his FIP (4.71 vs. 3.61).

Montgomery was a disaster last year—but the late signing and rushed prep didn’t help. If he finds his 2023 form, this rotation could be elite. If not? The burden falls squarely on Burnes and Gallen.

Something Happened at Chase Field – But What?

The Diamondbacks’ home performance in 2024 was bizarre.

• They led MLB in home wOBA (.345) and runs scored.
• They scored 47 more runs at home than any other team, despite hitting just 93 home runs at Chase Field.
• That’s 140 more total runs than their 2023 team—and 92 more at home alone.

Was it the crowd energy? The humidor settings? Just random baseball variance?

And it wasn’t just the hitters. The pitching staff also saw strange numbers at home.

• They had a 4.68 ERA at home—half a run higher than their FIP (3.97).
• Their average fly ball distance increased by just one foot from 2023 to 2024—not enough to explain the drastic shift.
• They allowed a .268/.339/.464 slash line with RISP, but even that wasn’t wildly different from 2023.

Maybe it was an anomaly. Maybe it was something more. But if those home numbers return to normal, this team could take a step back.

The Diamondbacks Are Betting on Growth

With Burnes anchoring the rotation, Arizona has a legitimate chance to compete with the Dodgers and Braves.

But questions remain.

• Can Carroll bounce back to MVP form?
• Can Naylor replace Walker’s production?
• Will Kelly and Rodriguez stay healthy?
• Will Montgomery prove last season was an outlier?

Josh Naylor gave his thoughts on this Diamondbacks team he is now a part of.

“Great team. Great players.” pic.twitter.com/J8FxTZpKhy

— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) February 10, 2025

At their best, this could be the best rotation in the National League.

At their worst? It’s Burnes and Gallen carrying an inconsistent group.

The 2024 Diamondbacks were one of baseball’s best stories. They played fast, aggressive, and fearless.

Now, 2025 is about proving it wasn’t a one-year magic trick.

The talent is there. The investment has been made.

Now, it’s time to deliver.