The 2025 Cincinnati Open women’s singles final is set between World No. 3 Iga Swiatek and World No. 8 Jasmine Paolini. Though Swiatek’s semifinal match against Elena Rybakina generated the most excitement beforehand, it turned out that Paolini’s three set slugfest with Veronika Kudermetova was more compellling.
Swiatek is looking fantastic ever since capturing her maiden Wimbledon championship last month. She dismissed Rybakina in straight sets, a match that many expected to go the distance, particularly after Rybakina’s huge quarterfinal win over World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
Paolini is one for two in semifinal matches this weekend. Though Sara Errani and she lost their doubles match in straight sets, Paolini found her form against Kudermetova.
That leaves us with Paolini and Swiatek as the last two ladies standing, and Swiatek has a tremendous head-to-head advantage.
Iga Swiatek is 5-0 Against Jasmine Paolini
Three of their matches happened in the past 15 months. One was on grass, one on clay, and one on hardcourts.
In their five meetings, Paolini has only won one set against Swiatek.
Given the playing style of both women, it is surprising that this is so one-sided.
Jasmine Paolini & Iga Swiatek will face each other in the Cincinnati final.
Iga leads the head to head 5-0.
Jasmine is playing in her 3rd WTA 1000 final. She is undefeated in WTA 1000 finals.
Iga is playing in her 13th WTA 1000 final & is playing some of her best hard court… pic.twitter.com/GF9W1LYC3s
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 17, 2025
Who Wins On Monday?
The head-to-head advantage is one factor that tips the odds in Iga Swiatek’s direction. Also, Paolini fell in a previous match. Though she is not wearing any visible strapping, her ankle may be feeling the aftereffects. Paolini also has played a lot more tennis in the blistering Cincinnati conditions with her successful singles and doubles runs. She is very fit, but at some point, this could still take a toll against a fresh Swiatek who has not dropped a set. Swiatek also had a walkover in the second round when Marta Kostyuk withdrew with an injury.
Watch the Cincinnati Open final at 6 PM on Monday, August 18 on the Tennis Channel.
