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NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Barkley Leads, Gibbs Rises, Jefferson Lurks as 2025-26 Favorites

Colin Lynch Written by Sports EditorColin Lynch
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NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Barkley Leads, Gibbs Rises, Jefferson Lurks as 2025-26 Favorites

Saquon Barkley leads 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, but Jahmyr Gibbs and Justin Jefferson offer strong value in early futures markets.

The 2025 NFL season is still months away, but the race for Offensive Player of the Year is already heating up in betting markets. Saquon Barkley, fresh off a 2,000-yard rushing campaign and a Super Bowl title with the Eagles, opens as the odds-on favorite. However, this isn’t a one-horse race. Young stars like Jahmyr Gibbs and Ja’Marr Chase are close behind, while elite wideout Justin Jefferson looms as a high-value futures option. With the award trending toward receivers in recent years, and running backs still dominating historically, this year’s OPOY race reflects a changing league—and a betting market full of opportunity. Here’s how the early odds board is shaping up.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds

Player Team Position ODDS
Saquon Barkley Eagles Philadelphia Eagles RB +650
Jahmyr Gibbs Lions Detroit Lions RB +950
Ja’Marr Chase Bengals Cincinnati Bengals WR +950
Bijan Robinson Falcons Atlanta Falcons RB +1600
Nico Collins Packers Houston Texans WR +1700
Justin Jefferson Vikings Minnesota Vikings WR +1700
Derrick Henry Ravens Baltimore Ravens RB +1800
Puka Nacua Rams Los Angeles Rams WR +2000
CeeDee Lamb Cowboys Dallas Cowboys WR +2000
Christian McCaffrey 49ers San Francisco 49ers RB +2200

Saquon Barkley (+650): The Reigning Champ Looks to Repeat

In his first season with the Eagles, Barkley did more than exceed expectations—he redefined them. After years of grinding behind an injury-riddled Giants offensive line, Barkley thrived in Philadelphia’s system. His 2,005 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5.8 yards per carry catapulted him to OPOY honors and helped lift the Eagles to a Super Bowl title.

What makes Barkley a threat to repeat is his efficiency. Even after sitting out the regular-season finale, he finished just 101 yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. With a deep offensive line, mobile quarterback, and creative playcalling, Barkley enters 2025 with the same weapons around him—and perhaps even more confidence.

Only a handful of players have won OPOY in back-to-back years. If Barkley stays healthy and Philly keeps winning, he could join that exclusive club.

Jahmyr Gibbs (+950): Rising Star in a Balanced Backfield

Jahmyr Gibbs split touches with David Montgomery in Detroit’s offense, but it didn’t stop him from posting elite numbers. Gibbs led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns and finished the season with 1,412 rushing yards, highlighted by 41 explosive runs of 10+ yards. That kind of production, especially in a limited role, speaks volumes about his trajectory.

The Lions clearly trust Gibbs more entering Year 3, and he’s expected to take on a larger workload—particularly as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He’s already drawing significant betting action, leading all OPOY candidates in ticket percentage (12.6%) and handle (17.1%).

If Detroit continues to be a playoff contender and Gibbs breaks the 1,700-yard barrier with 15+ touchdowns, he could make a legitimate push past Barkley for the award.

Justin Jefferson (+1800): The Value Play with Sky-High Ceiling

Justin Jefferson might be the most talented wide receiver in football—and the betting market knows it. The 2022 OPOY winner opens at +1800, but early AI models and analysts point to him as a top breakout candidate in 2025.

Why? Target share and offensive philosophy. The Vikings are expected to rely heavily on the pass game, and while rookie QB J.J. McCarthy’s development is a variable, Jefferson’s ability to get open anywhere on the field makes him nearly quarterback-proof. His route running, hands, and yards-after-catch ability set him apart from every other receiver on the board.

If Jefferson clears 1,600 receiving yards and scores double-digit touchdowns again, he’ll be hard to ignore. The key will be Minnesota’s competitiveness—if the Vikings flirt with a Wild Card spot, his odds could shorten quickly.

Trends to Watch in the 2025 OPOY Race

History favors running backs in this award market—29 of the last 51 winners have played the position—but that trend is evolving. In the last five years alone, three wide receivers have taken home OPOY honors (Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson), reflecting the league’s shift toward explosive passing offenses.

Key historical trends:

  • Only four receivers have ever won the award—but three did so in the last five seasons.

  • 28 of the 51 winners also won MVP in the same year.

  • Jerry Rice is the only WR to win the award multiple times.

  • Quarterbacks and RBs have dominated overall, with 20 and 29 winners respectively.

In 2025, versatility and explosiveness—not just volume—will define the winner.

Colin Lynch Written by Sports EditorColin Lynch
Colin Lynch covers the NFL, MLB and WNBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the New England Patriots. His sports coverage has been featured on The Sports Daily and Basketball Insiders, as well as FanSided's Chowder & Champions. A New Hampshire native and former D1 baseball player at St. John's University, Colin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and enjoyed a four-year professional baseball career.
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