Gambling
Robinhood Launches Presidential Election Betting Market
Retail investing platform Robinhood debuted a program Monday enabling users to place wagers on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, entering a growing market which currently favors Republican nominee Donald Trump over Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Robinhood will allow its clientele to bet on the November 5 general election via presidential election event contracts
Robinhood announced U.S. citizens will be eligible to purchase event contracts betting on whether Trump or Harris will win on Election Day. According to Forbes, contracts priced between $0.02 and $0.99 at close to the market-implied percentage odds of victory for each candidate will result in a $1 payout if the pick is nailed.
Users can buy a maximum of 5,000 election contracts, company spokesperson Christina Trejo informed Forbes. This means Robinhood users can receive up to a $5,000 payout if they pick the winning side.
The platform will allow users to buy and sell “Yes” contracts for either Trump or Harris. Customers can only purchase a “Yes” contract for one of the candidates, not both.
More importantly, Robinhood is set to join various political prediction market companies, such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt. Election betting has become a major talking point this presidential election. However, sportsbooks remain prohibited from offering similar betting markets.
If the platform’s market opens with a 62% chance of a Trump victory, users will be able to buy Trump contracts at $.062 apiece
According to the site Election Betting Odds, Trump has a 62% chance of winning over Harris across major betting markets. FiveThirtyEight’s, the poll-based prediction model, gives Trump a 54% chance at victory. Then there’s Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which prices Trump at 52.9%.
In other words, if the Robinhood market opens with a 62% chance of a Trump win, the platform’s users could buy Trump contracts at $0.62 apiece and Harris contracts at $0.38.
This essentially boils down to $1 separately if their pick is successful. Users would net about a 60% return on investment if Trump wins and 160% if Harris does.
The hours of operation for Robinhood’s presidential election betting market will ramp up heading into next Tuesday’s election. Trading opens at 8 a.m. ET and runs through 8 p.m. ET.
The contracts will pay out Jan. 7-8, 2025.