NFL Fantasy Forecast Week 13: Busts, Breakouts, Sleepers, and More
As hard as it is to believe, only six weeks remain in the 2022 NFL regular season, which means the postseason in your fantasy football league is likely right around the corner.
So as we’ve done all season, we’ve gathered our esteemed group of NFL experts to help you on your march toward the playoffs with some tips for Week 13.
Sportscasting’s Week 13 NFL Fantasy Football Forecast
Quarterback Bust of the Week: Tua Tagovailoa
Luke Norris: In the five games he’s played since returning from a concussion, all of which the Dolphins have won, Tua Tagovailoa has lit it up, completing 69.8% of his passes for 1,529 yards (305.8 per game) with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
But he also put up those numbers against teams with a combined record of 15-39-1. And that’s not me trying to diminish his accomplishments, as he currently ranks second in my season-long QB competition. That’s just stating facts.
And here’s another one. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins square off with the San Francisco 49ers defense in Week 13 that has made life miserable for quarterbacks, especially during their current four-game winning streak. That’s not to say Tua can’t put up decent numbers, but he’s going to have a much tougher time doing so than he has recently.
Player Prop of the Week: Dallas Cowboys’ defense OVER 7.1 points
Jack Dougherty: The Cowboys’ defense didn’t feast on Thanksgiving the way fantasy owners had hoped. Micah Parsons and Co. managed three sacks against the New York Giants but surrendered 20 points and didn’t force a turnover. The 3.0 points marked the second-lowest weekly total for this unit all season.
We should see a major bounceback from the Dallas defense this week against an immobile Matt Ryan and the struggling Indianapolis Colts offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys force multiple turnovers in the game and score a touchdown to put up a monster point total for your fantasy team.
Breakout Rookie of the Week: Garrett Wilson
Tim Crean: New York Jets rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson has had two 100-yard games this season but hasn’t yet had the 125-plus-yard, multiple-touchdown performance that would vault him into the true WR1 conversation.
Wilson has two things going for him in Week 13 that could make this his breakout week. One is that he’s catching balls from Mike White now instead of Zach Wilson, and two is that the Minnesota Vikings are the 24th-ranked pass defense this season.
Look for those two factors to combine this week and make Garrett Wilson one of the highest-performing receivers in fantasy as your fake football team makes its final playoff push.
Defensive Disaster of the Week: New England Patriots
Mike Thomas: When the New England Patriots have faced a below-average quarterback, the defense has shined. Josh Allen is far from below average.
Look for the Buffalo Bills to continue their offensive onslaught against the Patriots on Thursday. The last two times these teams met, Buffalo put up a combined 80 points, including 47 in last year’s playoff win. In those last two games against the Patriots, the Bills never punted.
Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings put up 33 points on the Pats on Thanksgiving. Look for Allen and the Bills to light it up as well.
Kicker Sleeper of the Week: Cade York
Adam Fromal: It’s downright baffling that the Cleveland Browns kicker is still rostered in just 15.4% of ESPN leagues, though that number might be quite a bit higher if it only looked at leagues with full manager participation. Cade York has been far better than his rostership indicates, ranking 15th among kickers and scoring 7.5 fantasy points per game.
He gets another favorable matchup in Week 13, squaring off against an overmatched Houston Texans roster that has allowed more points to kickers than all but six squads. Oh, and Deshaun Watson will be debuting at quarterback for the Browns, which is questionable for so many reasons but will help them march down the field with far more success than they found under Jacoby Brissett.
The chemistry might not be there yet for Watson to spark touchdown drive after touchdown drive, which only ups the likelihood of York being the one to do the scoring.
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