NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Is No Longer the Betting Favorite for the First Time All Season
For the first eight weeks of the 2022-23 NFL season, Josh Allen‘s name stood alone atop the MVP odds board. Allen entered the year as the betting favorite to win the award, and he only improved his case throughout the season by leading the Buffalo Bills to a 6-1 start behind his 19 touchdown passes.
But after throwing zero touchdowns and two interceptions in a shocking loss to the New York Jets on Sunday, Allen fell off his MVP perch for the first time all season. There’s now a new favorite in the MVP betting market, and his name is Patrick Mahomes.
So, what does the NFL MVP odds board look like halfway through the season, and does the shift at the top create any valuable bets?
NFL MVP odds: Patrick Mahomes overtakes Josh Allen as the betting favorite
Preseason Allen MVP bettors were feeling pretty good about themselves through eight weeks of the NFL season. The Bills QB began the year as a +700 favorite to win the award, and he dropped all the way to +120 before Sunday’s AFC East clash against the Jets.
Unfortunately for those Allen bettors, he put up his worst performance of the year by completing just 18 of his 34 pass attempts for 205 yards and two picks. It was the first time this season Allen didn’t throw a single touchdown pass.
Because of Allen’s poor showing, the Bills lost their second game of the year to fall to 6-2. A few hours later, Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a comeback victory over the Tennessee Titans to improve to 6-2. That momentum change was enough to flip the NFL MVP betting market, as FanDuel moved Mahomes to +200 and dropped Allen to +250 on Monday morning.
This marks the first time all year Allen hasn’t been on top of the MVP odds board. The star QB still has the second half of the season to make up his small deficit, so this tight race should come down to the wire.
Here are the current NFL MVP odds after Week 9:
- Patrick Mahomes +200
- Josh Allen +250
- Jalen Hurts +250
- Lamar Jackson +1400
- Tua Tagovailoa +2000
- Joe Burrow +2000
- Geno Smith +2500
- Kirk Cousins +4000
- Justin Herbert +4000
- Tyreek Hill +7500
- Daniel Jones +10000
- Tom Brady +10000
- Russell Wilson +15000
- Christian McCaffrey +15000
- Saquon Barkley +15000
- Jimmy Garoppolo +15000
- Derrick Henry +15000
- Justin Jefferson +15000
NFL MVP bets to consider
Jalen Hurts +250
What am I missing here? I wrote about how Allen should no longer be the MVP favorite after Sunday’s dud, but I didn’t expect to see Mahomes jump both Allen and Hurts after barely escaping a scare against the Titans as a 14-point favorite.
Sure, Mahomes has the most passing touchdowns in the NFL and is putting up better numbers than Hurts, but the only number that might matter by the end of the year will be the number of losses these three QBs suffer. Hurts still hasn’t lost a game in eight starts this season, and based on the Philadelphia Eagles’ easy schedule the rest of the way, he might finish the year 16-1 or 15-2.
The MVP award should go to the best player on the best team in the league, and that’s Hurts right now. Give me the +250 before he inevitably becomes the favorite.
Tua Tagovailoa +2000
If there’s one longshot I’m willing to take a chance on in the MVP betting market, I think it has to be Tagovailoa. The Miami Dolphins are 6-0 in games started and finished by Tagovailoa, and he leads the NFL in passing yards per attempt (9.2), QBR (79.9), and QB rating (115.9).
If Miami can catch Buffalo to win the AFC East and Tua continues to play the way he has all season, he’ll at least be in the MVP conversation by the end of the year.
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