NFL MVP Odds: The Winner Has Already Been Decided Based on the Current Betting Market
With just one week remaining in the 2022-23 NFL season, the betting markets are more accurate than they’ve been all year. The Super Bowl odds are highlighting the projected top seeds in each conference, and the NFL MVP odds are starting to make the result look like a foregone conclusion.
Based on the current betting odds, it would be a shock if anyone not named Patrick Mahomes ended up winning the MVP award this season.
Updated NFL MVP odds: Patrick Mahomes pulling away
Before the 2022-23 NFL season got underway, almost every notable name was listed on the odds board. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was pegged as the preseason betting favorite at +700, but everyone from Zach Wilson to Marcus Mariota was listed at 100-1 or less.
With one week remaining in the regular season, that pool has dwindled down to just five names. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who leads the NFL in passing yards (5,048), passing touchdowns (40), and QBR (77.8), is now the overwhelming favorite to win MVP at -600 odds. That price translates to an 85.71% probability, so Mahomes may have already locked up his second MVP award.
The second name on the odds board is Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow at +700 odds. Allen and Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts are right behind at +1200 each, and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is the only longshot listed at 150-1 odds.
- Patrick Mahomes -600
- Joe Burrow +700
- Josh Allen +1200
- Jalen Hurts +1200
- Justin Jefferson +15000
Patrick Mahomes has already locked up the NFL MVP award
A few weeks ago, Hurts looked to be cruising to the first MVP award of his career. The 24-year-old led the Eagles to a 13-1 start while throwing for 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He also led all QBs in rushing touchdowns (13) and ranked third in rushing yards (750). Before he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 15 against the Chicago Bears, Hurts was priced as the betting favorite to win MVP at every sportsbook.
But Hurts has now missed the last two weeks with a sprained shoulder, and the Eagles lost both games to fall to 13-3. It’s possible voters view Philadelphia’s recent struggles as a positive for Hurts’ MVP case, but missing two or three games might knock him out of the race completely.
As for Burrow and Allen, both QBs have a strong case to win MVP, but they’re still behind Mahomes in most statistical categories. They would need monster performances in Week 18 combined with a rare dud from Mahomes against the Las Vegas Raiders to have a fighting chance.
Justin Jefferson can break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record with 194 yards in Week 18, but he won’t be a legitimate MVP candidate even if he does accomplish that feat.
So, Mahomes might be even more likely to win the NFL MVP award than the betting market indicates.
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