Super Bowl Odds: Only 6 Teams Have a Realistic Shot at Winning It All
We’re inching closer and closer to the finish line of the 2022-23 NFL regular season, and the serious Super Bowl contenders are starting to distance themselves from the rest of the pack. We know the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles are at the top of that list, but how many others are there, really?
By my estimation, there are only six teams that have a realistic chance to win Super Bowl 57. Spoiler alert: The Minnesota Vikings are not one of them.
Super Bowl odds: Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles on top
| Team | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +350 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +450 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +490 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +700 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +800 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1100 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1900 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2100 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2800 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3100 |
| Miami Dolphins | +3700 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +4800 |
| Green Bay Packers | +6000 |
| New York Giants | +8500 |
| Tennessee Titans | +9500 |
| Detroit Lions | +12000 |
| New England Patriots | +14000 |
| Washington Commanders | +15000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +15000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +22000 |
| New York Jets | +34000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +45000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +100000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +100000 |
Only 6 NFL teams can realistically win Super Bowl 57
Buffalo Bills +350
The Bills are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl everywhere you look, and they deserve to be. Buffalo is the highest-rated team in DVOA by a comfortable margin, it owns the best point differential in the NFL, and it’s in line to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Josh Allen and Co. won’t be satisfied with anything short of a Super Bowl title this season.
Kansas City Chiefs +450
The Chiefs are second on the Super Bowl odds board at most sportsbooks, but I don’t necessarily agree with that price because of how much of an advantage the No. 1 seed has in each conference. Kansas City might have to travel to Buffalo for the AFC Championship, whereas the Eagles will likely have a bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The defense is an issue, but Patrick Mahomes is dynamic enough to lead the Chiefs to his second championship.
Philadelphia Eagles +490
Aside from the Bills, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL that ranks top five in both offensive and defensive DVOA this season. Philadelphia has had the best record in the league all year and should earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but its Super Bowl price has recently dropped due to Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury. If Hurts returns to full health by the postseason, the Eagles will be the clear favorites to win the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers +700
This season has illustrated just how elite Kyle Shanahan is as a head coach and play-caller. It doesn’t matter if it’s an unproven draft pick, an immobile veteran, or a Mr. Irrelevant rookie under center; Shanahan will be able to maximize this offense’s potential. The 49ers also have the best defense in the NFL in nearly every metric. This will be a dangerous team in the playoffs as long as Brock Purdy can protect the football.
Cincinnati Bengals +800
Many advanced stats aren’t going to tell you that the Bengals are Super Bowl contenders, but they didn’t last year, either. I’ve seen enough greatness from Joe Burrow in big games to put Cincy in the same tier as the other elite teams in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys +1100
The Cowboys have the most red flags of any team on this list. The defense has been struggling to stop the pass due to cluster injuries in the secondary, Dak Prescott has never won a playoff game, and Mike McCarthy can’t be trusted to make the correct decisions throughout a full postseason run. Still, this is a talented roster that can win in a variety of ways.
