As the NFL Week 11 slate approaches, we head into the back half of the season and the playoff picture starts to get clearer. On the fantasy football side, the playoffs are even closer. With just three or four weeks left in the regular fantasy season in most leagues, it is more important than ever to have your lineup on point as you push for the postseason.

As we do every week, the NFL experts at Sportscasting are here to help you set your lineups on Sunday. We’ll go through the quarterbacks to avoid, the player prop that will pop, the rookie who will break out, the defense to stay away from, and the kicker to play.

Sportscasting’s NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football Forecast

Quarterback Bust of the Week: Justin Herbert

Luke Norris: If I handed out weekly grades for effort, Justin Herbert would get an A every time as he puts everything he’s got into each and every game the Chargers play. But it’s what he doesn’t have at the moment that hinders his ability to put up big fantasy numbers, namely weapons and consistent protection. 

In his last five games, Herbert has just one with multiple touchdown passes as he’s clearly missing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, although Williams may return for LA’s Sunday night showdown with the Chiefs. How productive he’ll be if that happens remains to be seen. 

Herbert, who played Sunday without both of his starting tackles, has taken multiple sacks three of the last four weeks and has thrown an interception every game during that stretch as well. The Chiefs don’t have the greatest passing defense in the league but I highly doubt they’ll give up the 334 yards and three touchdowns they did in Week 2.

Player Prop of the Week: Kadarius Toney over 5.3 PPR points

Jack Dougherty: Kadarius Toney was seldom used in his Kansas City Chiefs debut against the Tennessee Titans, but his snap percentage jumped from 9% to 44% last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The speedy wideout made the most of his increased opportunities by catching four of his five targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. He also carried the ball twice for 33 yards.

We probably won’t see JuJu Smith-Schuster this week, so Toney should handle even more touches for this high-powered offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if he clears this projection in the first quarter.

Breakout Rookie of the Week: Tyler Allgeier 

Tim Crean: The Atlanta Falcons’ fifth-round pick out of BYU is already having an excellent season, leading his team in rushing with 443 yards on 102 carries. He only has one rushing touchdown this year, though. 

On the NFL Week 11 schedule, the Falcons have the Chicago Bears at home. The Bears have given up the third-most rushing yards this season (1,420) and the most rushing touchdowns (17). They’ve also given up over 100 yards on the ground six times this season, and in three of those six games, the total has been over 200. 

The Falcons are not a passing team, and their only chance of winning games is by pounding the rock. In all four of the team’s wins, they’ve had over 160 yards rushing. Week 11 is a perfect time for Allgeier to run wild, put up his first 100-yard game, and get at least touchdown No. 2 (if not Nos. 2 and 3). 

Defensive Disaster of the Week: 

Mike Thomas: Something is fishy in this game. The Minnesota Vikings just might be the best team in the NFC. They’re tied with the best record at 8-1 and are fresh off a shocking victory at the Buffalo Bills. The Dallas Cowboys (6-3)  are coming off a fourth-quarter collapse against the struggling Green Bay Packers.

The teams meet in Minnesota, yet Vegas has the Cowboys as the favorite. It’s a tough one to figure out, and Vegas usually finds a way to be correct in games like this, but I’m going against the grain here.

Look for the Vikings to keep rolling and keep putting up points in the comforts of their own home. There won’t be a letdown, and Justin Jefferson will continue to show he’s arguably the best wide receiver in the business. 

Kicker Sleeper of the Week: Robbie Gould

Adam Fromal: Don’t be scared off by the crunchtime extra-point miss against the Buffalo Bills. Greg Joseph admittedly hasn’t been the most accurate kicker during the 2022 NFL campaign, but you’re not chasing after perfection here. Involvement is the reason he emerges as the featured Week 11 sleeper. 

The potency of the full-strength Minnesota Vikings offense, which seems to be finding its stride lately, guarantees a few point-after tries and gives Joseph a high floor. The ceiling comes from a Dallas Cowboys outfit that ranks just 26th against opposing fantasy kickers this season.

Joseph should knock a long try through the uprights at some point in this matchup, and he won’t be done there.