NFL Week 8 Picks: Best Bets, Moneyline Underdog, and Teaser of the Week
That, my friends, is how you bounce back.
After an abysmal 1-5 record in Week 6, we were able to get back on track with a 5-1 mark in Week 7. We even nailed the Washington Commanders at +188 for our first moneyline underdog winner since Week 3. Through seven weeks of the NFL season, we’re now 26-16 overall in best bets and up over 11 units.
But there’s no time to relax, champ (shoutout Kevin Durant). We’re not even halfway through the NFL season, so there’s plenty of time before we get this profit train to the station. Let’s try to keep it rolling.
Week 8 best bets, let’s go!
NFL Week 8 best bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 20-15 (+6.57 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 10/28.
Favorite Favorite: New England Patriots -2.5 at New York Jets
The Patriots didn’t inspire much confidence with their 33-14 drubbing at the hands of the Chicago Bears last week, but that created some value for this week’s matchup. Because of their abysmal performance on primetime, the Pats are only 2.5-point favorites against the Jets this Sunday.
Please and thank you.
Bill Belichick has won 12 straight games against the Jets. This is a severe coaching mismatch against Robert Saleh, and New York won’t have much success moving the ball without Breece Hall. Zach Wilson is going to have to play his best game of the season to cover this number, and I don’t think he can do it against a Belichick-coached defense.
Favorite Underdog: Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
I know, I know. This one is gross, but hear me out.
The Titans are a fraudulent 4-2 through six games. They didn’t score a single offensive touchdown in last week’s 19-10 win over the Indianapolis Colts, and they’ve been out-gained in every game this season. In fact, Tennessee ranks dead last in the NFL in net yards per play (-1.19).
Ryan Tannehill may not suit up for this one, but even if he does, he won’t be operating at 100%. If Malik Willis gets his first career start, I’ll be glad to fade the rookie as a road favorite.
Favorite Over: Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins over 51.5
This game has shootout written all over it.
You might be scared away by the Lions scoring six total points over their last two games, but they didn’t have Amon-Ra St. Brown or D’Andre Swift for a majority of their offensive possessions. When their two stars were fully healthy, the Lions put up 35 against the Philadelphia Eagles and 36 against the Washington Commanders.
On the other side, Miami should be able to produce some explosive plays with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center. Detroit doesn’t have anyone in the secondary who can stick with Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, so I see this game possibly finishing in the 60s.
Favorite Under: Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers under 42.5
These two teams faced off just three weeks ago, and they finished with a combined 33 points in a 24-9 San Francisco victory. I don’t see much changing this time around, and Deebo Samuel might not be able to suit up for the 49ers.
The Rams have gone over this total just once in six games. I’m willing to ride the under machine for at least one more week.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Arizona Cardinals +154 at Minnesota Vikings
You simply can’t trust the Cardinals on their home turf, but when they go on the road as underdogs, they’re an ATM. Kliff Kingsbury is 15-4-1 against the spread in his career as a road underdog, and Arizona beat the Las Vegas Raiders outright in its only game as a road dog this season. And that was without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup.
I don’t think the Vikings are as good as their 5-1 record implies, and I think they come back to earth this week.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 6-1 (+4.8 units)
Detroit Lions +9.5/Washington Commanders +9
As I explained earlier, I expect the Lions to put up a ton of points against a banged-up Dolphins secondary. They’ll give up a ton, sure, but I see this being a “last team with the ball wins” type of game.
As for the other leg, I’d be shocked if Sam Ehlinger can lead the Colts to a double-digit win in his first career start as a pro. Taylor Heinicke is clearly an upgrade from Carson Wentz, and Washington’s defensive line can slow down Jonathan Taylor and make Ehlinger win the game with his arm.
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