NFL Week 9 Picks: Best Bets, Underdog Moneyline, and Teaser of the Week
I’ve been boom or bust with my NFL best bets this season. Thankfully, it’s been more boom than bust so far, but it was neither last week for the first time all season. I went 3-3 in Week 8 for a small loss, which brings my season record to 29-19 for +11.17 units. The Teaser of the Week continues to crush, too, as I hit another one to improve to 7-1 on the year.
Let’s go for a winning week and keep this profit train rolling. Week 9 best bets, let’s go!
NFL Week 9 Best Bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 22-18 (+5.37 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 11/5.
Favorite Favorite: Buffalo Bills -11.5 vs. New York Jets
I don’t normally get suckered into double-digit favorites. I also haven’t featured the Bills in this column all season. Buffalo is clearly the highest-rated team in the betting market, but it hasn’t mattered so far as it’s gone 4-2-1 against the spread.
This number opened up around -13.5, but now that it’s down to -11.5, I’ll take the bait.
I’m not sure how the Jets find any success on offense here. They’re not the same team without Breece Hall, and the Bills are a nightmare matchup for turnover-happy Zach Wilson. Buffalo’s defense ranks second in the NFL in turnover percentage (17.4%), second in interceptions (11), and sixth in yards per play allowed (5.0).
Von Miller and Co. will be able to pressure Wilson and force him into dangerous throws. I don’t see the Jets putting up more than 13 points in this one, and the Bills can easily get to 25 against any defense.
Favorite Underdog: Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
No one is getting excited to bet on the 1-6 Lions, but this is the perfect spot to buy them. Dan Campbell is 7-3 against the spread as a home underdog with Detroit. The Lions have scored at least 27 points in all four of their home games this season, and the offense wasn’t even fully healthy in all of them.
As for the Packers, they haven’t scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Green Bay told us it’s not a contender when it stayed silent at the trade deadline. It’s time to accept what the Packers truly are this year, and that’s a below-average team quickly losing faith. The Lions will at least fight hard for their head coach and their teammates, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off the outright upset.
Favorite Over: Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Chargers over 49.5
This is a classic battle of strengths versus weaknesses. The Falcons love to run the ball, and the Chargers rank last in the NFL in yards per rush allowed (5.7). Meanwhile, LA loves to air it out with Justin Herbert, and Atlanta gives up the most passing yards per game (306.9) in the league.
If both of these teams ride their offensive strengths all game, which unfortunately might be a lot to ask from these head coaches, this should be a sweat-free over.
Favorite Under: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans under 44.5
This is a dangerously low total in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are always a threat to score 45 themselves on any given week, but I don’t see this game playing out that way.
First off, Ryan Tannehill is in danger of missing his second straight game due to an ankle injury. If he does play, he won’t be 100% healthy. If he doesn’t, Malik Willis won’t be able to move the ball through the air after he threw for just 55 yards on 10 pass attempts in his first career start last week. We’re going to see a heavy, heavy dose of Derrick Henry either way, which should bleed the clock all game and limit Kansas City’s possessions.
The Titans held Mahomes and the Chiefs to just three points in their matchup last year. Kansas City will obviously surpass that number this time around, but I see this finishing as a 24-14-type game with the way Mike Vrabel is going to manage the clock.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Washington Commanders +142 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I cashed a moneyline ticket on the Commanders two weeks ago, so let’s go back to the well in Week 9.
The Vikings may be 6-1, but they’re not as impressive as their record indicates. Minnesota currently ranks 23rd in the NFL in net yards per play (-0.54), and it has the second-worst mark in the league on the road (-1.69). Only the Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.88) have a worse net yards per play mark on the road than the Vikings.
The 4-4 Commanders have actually out-gained their opponents by a better margin than the Vikings have this year. This mirage of a record won’t last for long, and I think it comes to a halt this week.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 7-1 (+5.8 units)
Buffalo Bills -5.5/Detroit Lions +9.5
This isn’t a teaser range I would normally target, but I’ve already explained why I like the Bills to cover the -11.5 against the Jets. We can bring that down through the key numbers of 10 and seven and feel pretty good about a six-point victory.
As for the Lions, I also like them to cover the spread in their game, so getting them up to +9.5 seems like a good idea.
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