Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends Highlight A Big DRAW Stat You Can’t Ignore

Use our Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends ahead of Sunday’s big Longchamp race to help put history on your side and find the best profiles based on past winners. Including a huge 78% Arc draw stat that has paid off in seven of the last eight runnings.

Did you know? 74% of the last 23 Arc winners won their last race and also returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends 2025: Key Stats To Find Longchamp Winner 

We’ve listed below our key Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends to apply to the 2025 running on Sunday 5th October 2025.

You can then use these horse racing stats to whittle down the final Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runners.

Which will hopefully help point you in the direction of the big Longchamp winner this weekend.

When Is The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2025?

📅Date: Sunday 5th October 2025
⌚Time: 3:05pm
🏇Racecourse: Longchamp
💰Winning Purse: £2,361,157
📺 TV: ITV Racing Schedule / Sky Racing

AGE: Just Four Arc Winners Aged 5+ Since 1976

The first of our Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends to have on your side is the age, as the 3 and 4 year-olds have by far the best record in recent times – making up 87% of the last 23 winners.

In contrast, there have only been three 5 year-olds winners during this period (Alpinista, Waldgeist and Marienbard) and only four since 1976.

At this stage, the 2025 Arc runners aged 5 are White Birch and Quisisana and we could have one 6 year-old – Giavellotto.

The last horse aged 6+ was in 1932 (Motrico) – still fancy Giavellotto?

In short, the 3 and 4 year-olds have by far the best records combined, while the 3 year-olds have the better stats.

Maybe this is because of the 6lb age allowance they get off the older horses?

While a 3  year-old filly in the race will also get a further 4lbs off.

Last year’s winner Bluestocking was a 4 year-old mare so carried 9st 2lbs.

Arc Age and Weights

Age Of Arc Winners In Last 23 Runnings

DRAW: 78% Of The Last 23 Winners Came From Stall 8 or Lower

Despite being run over a trip of 1m4f, the draw in the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe has played a massive part too.

Yes, in 2021, 2016 and 2015 we saw winners from stalls 12 (2) and 14 (1), but with 18 of the last 23 winners (78%) hailing from berths 8 or lower this is too big a trend to ignore.

Plus, we can probably ignore the 2016 running when Found won from stall 12 as the race was run at Chantilly that year and also in 2017.

Being drawn lower has clearly been a plus and this was again backed up in the last three years with Ace Impact winning from stall 8, Alpinista in 6 and Bluestocking from gate 3 last year.

Basically, six of the last seven Arc winners have come between stalls 2-8 (inc). And seven of the last eight coming from gates 8 or lower (SEE THE DRAW BELOW).

Then, if you want to whittle down the runners a bit more – then 16 of the last 23 winners came from stalls 6 or lower (70%) – again backed up last year.

You could argue the draw has been one of the best Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends in recent times.

Last Seven Arc Winners and Their Draw

Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Draw 2025

Based on the draw Andy Newton’s Prix de l’Arc Triomphe tips feature one horse drawn low. Plus he also thinks a runner from the UK and Ireland will also go well.

RUNS: Look For Horses With 4+ Runs That Season

Next up is to look for horses that have had at least four runs that season – as this trend has paid off in 18 of the last 23 renewals – backed up again in 2024 when Bluestocking had been out five times already that season.

These horses have raced 4+ times this campaign – Arrow Eagle, Sosie, Los Angeles, Byzantine Dream, Kalpana, Aventure, Daryz, Leffard, Cualificar, Hotazhell, Alohi Alii, Gezora and Minnie Hauk.

Last Six Arc Winners and How Many Runs That Season

FORM: At Least 5 Wins and A Victory Last Time Out A Plus

Having proven winning experience at least five times is another big stat to look for – with 16 of the last 23 winners having been victorious 5+ times in the past.

But last year’s winner Bluestocking had only won four times before winning the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe. But did win last time out – when winning the Prix Vermeille.

The last time out winners in 2025 are – Minnie Hauk, Alohi Alii, Cualificar, Aventure, Quisisana, Byzantine Dream and Giavellotto.

Horses WITHOUT five or more wins are – Byzantine Dream, Estrange, Daryz, Leffard, Cualificar, Hotazhell, Croix Du Nord, Alohi Alii and Gezora.

Last Six Arc Winners and How Many Previous Wins

FAVOURITES: Market Leaders Have A Decent Recent Arc Record

Despite being a very competitive race, the Arc has not been too bad a hunting ground for the favourite.

Since 2002 we’ve seen seven Arc favourites win (30%) and 13 of those (56%) have been placed too.

We’ve also had a winning market leader in two of the last three runnings with Ace Impact and Alpinista going in and four in the last eight renewals (50%).

But last year’s market leader Sosie, who could be back in 2025, was only fourth.

This year’s Prix de l’Arc Triomphe favourite could be Minnie Hauk, who will be looking to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a third win in the race.

Recent Winning Arc Favourites

FILLIES: Respect The Females With a 41% Return In The Last 22 Runnings

In the Arc any filly will get a weight allowance – if they are aged 3, they will carry just 8st 9lbs and if aged 4 will have 9st 2lbs – which is less that a 3 year-old colt at 8st 13lbs or 4 year-old colt at 9st 5lbs.

This might be one of the reasons the fillies have a fine recent in the Arc – winning 10 of the last 23, which equates to a 43% return.

Backed up most recently in 2022 (Alpinista), 2018 and 2017 with Enable, 2016 with Found and last year again with Bluestocking.

This year’s fillies still in the race are – Minnie Hauk, Gezora, Aventure, Kalpana, Quisisana and Estrange.

STABLES: André Fabre Is The Winning-Most Arc Trainer

No trainer has won the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe more times than André Fabre – with eight past successes.

The French handler had his first winner in the race in 1987 with Trempolino and his most recent in 2019 when Waldgeist foiled the Enable three-time Arc bid (watch below).

Fabre could have two more darts to throw at the 2025 race – last year’s fourth Sosie and the Godolphin-owned Cualificar.

André Fabre Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners

Of the other trainers Aidan O’Brien will be popular too with a strong hand that includes the likely market leader in Minni Hauk, who won the 2025 Epsom Oaks earlier this season (watch below).

O’Brien has two past wins in the race – his first in 2007 with Dylan Thomas and more recently in 2016 with Found.

The only other Aidan O’Brien Prix de l’Arc Triomphe runner in 2025 will be Los Angeles.

TRIALS: Is The Prix Niel A Good Arc Prep?

This Prix Niel is billed as a decent Arc Trial race – however, is it really?

The worry would be that the last horse to win both the Prix Niel and the Arc was Rail Link in 2006 – meaning an 18 -year run.

Before Rail Link, it was Hurricane Run in 2005 who was the last double Niel/Arc winner.

This year’s Prix Neil winner was the already mentioned André Fabre Cualificar.

OWNERS: Respect Any Juddmonte Runners

With seven Prix de l’Arc Triomphe wins over the years the famous Juddmonte colours (pink, white and green) should always be noted.

They’ve won the race seven times over the years, including in 2024 again with Bluestocking.

Their other winners came in 2018 Enable, 2017 Enable, 2010 Workforce, 2006 Rail Link, 1986 Dancing Brave and 1985 Rainbow Quest.

This year, their sole runner is the Andrew Balding-trained Kalpana, who had been favourite until losing last time out in the September Stakes at Kempton.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners (Past 10 Years)

WATCH: Bluestocking Winning The 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe