Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew was among the winners again on Friday and has three stats-based picks on Saturday, December 7th…
CHEPSTOW 1.37
ENJOY YOUR LIFE (system – Venetia Williams December handicappers, recent run)
Since 2012, Venetia Williams has a 72 from 299 record (24.1% strike-rate) with her handicappers (hurdlers and chasers) in December who had raced within the past four weeks and backing the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £84.28 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 53.50, A/E = 1.35).
ENJOY YOUR LIFE, runner-up to the progressive Range over an inadequate 2m3.5f here last time, can go one better over this more suitable 2m7.5f distance.
NAVAN 1.42
OSCARS BROTHER (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, last time out winners, speed angle)
OSCARS BROTHER clocked a fast time when successful in a Listed novices’ hurdle at Cork last month, despite the officially good going being faster than preferred.
The six-year-old makes his handicap debut in this 3m1f contest and backing handicap hurdlers over 3m+, who won last time out while recording a Proform speed figure of 67 or higher, would have found 138 winners from 505 bets (27.3%) for a profit of £129.42 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 107.23, A/E = 1.29). He remains open to improvement and seems to have been underestimated in the betting (best price of 14-1 at the time of writing).
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00
SUNLIT UPLANDS (system – Rae Guest, all-weather, second career start)
Rae Guest does well on the all-weather with his runners having their second career start, scoring with 18 of the 111 qualifiers for a profit of £7.96 (expected winners = 11.19, A/E = 1.61). Those who finished first or second on their debuts were 11 from 24 (45.8%) for a profit of £22.05 and SUNLIT UPLANDS, short-headed at Chelmsford on her debut after being backed from 14-1 into 8-1, is likely to prove very hard to beat.
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