Kevin Blake, tipster for At The Races, has published his three selections for Epsom’s Derby Day card on Friday 5 June 2026 – and the sharpest call is not in the Betfred Derby itself. Blake is taking on market leader Calandagan in the Coolmore Coronation Cup at 2.40pm, backing Jan Brueghel at 3/1 on the basis that course form matters more than a five-race winning streak built elsewhere. In the Betfred Derby at 4pm, Benvenuto Cellini heads his 1-2-3 at 2/1, with Lord Melbourne at 20/1 completing the card as a course-specialist each-way play in the Northern Dancer Handicap at 5.20pm. Ground conditions on the easier side of good suit Blake’s Derby selection and do nothing to undermine either of his supporting calls.
Kevin Blake’s Derby 1-2-3: Benvenuto Cellini Heads His Podium
Benvenuto Cellini is Blake’s headline selection for the Betfred Derby, and the case is built on more than his position at the top of the market. The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt arrives at Epsom with the most classical profile in a crowded Ballydoyle team – a stamina-laden pedigree built for 1m4f, a decisive Chester Vase trial win that mirrors the profile of recent Ballydoyle Derby winners, and comparisons with The Minstrel that speak to a distinctive physical presence the handler has always favoured at Epsom. O’Brien’s Derby record – 11 winners and counting – confirms that when Ballydoyle sends a horse with this profile, the historical case is formidable.
Blake’s second-place selection is Christmas Day at 22/1 – also O’Brien-trained, drawn in stall 5, and representing a price that reflects market scepticism rather than any fundamental flaw in the profile. Third in Blake’s podium is James J Braddock at 9/1, the son of Zarak who got up on the line to deny Pierre Bonnard at Leopardstown and represents the most credible each-way case in the field at a double-figure price. Blake has made a separate, detailed case for James J Braddock’s each-way credentials, and punters who want contrarian coverage at a bigger price will find that analysis worth reading alongside this selection summary. The historical trends for the 2026 Epsom Derby independently support Benvenuto Cellini as the strongest statistical fit in the field.
The honest caveat is that Item at 4/1 – winner of the Dante Stakes at York and drawn in stall 3 – is the chief market danger and the selection backed by Racing TV’s draw analysts as the most dangerous rival. Blake’s case is not that Item lacks ability; it is that Benvenuto Cellini’s combination of trial form, pedigree, and trainer profile represents the clearest fit with what Epsom’s unique 1m4f demands. The Bet: Benvenuto Cellini to win the Betfred Derby at 2/1 with Betfred.
Jan Brueghel at 3/1: Blake Takes On Market Leader Calandagan in the Coronation Cup
The Coolmore Coronation Cup has been moved onto Derby Day for the 2026 Epsom Derby festival and had its prize money significantly boosted – a change that has attracted a renewal of genuine Group 1 quality. The headline storyline is the rematch between Jan Brueghel and Calandagan, and the market has made its view clear: Calandagan, who has won five consecutive races at the highest level since Jan Brueghel beat him here last year – including what Blake calls a “genuinely epic victory in the Japan Cup” – is the odds-on favourite. Blake is going the other way.
His positive case for Jan Brueghel is specific, not merely contrarian. As Blake puts it: “Jan Brueghel did seem to enjoy the unique test of this course and distance quite a bit better than Calandagan last year and that could prove to be an important factor this year.” That course form is a hard data point. Jan Brueghel’s preparation has been light – a disappointing King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, followed by an impressive winning return at Chester last month – but the Chester win demonstrates he returns to form fresh, and O’Brien potentially has a stable plan involving his two supporting runners in the Coronation Cup to maximise the selection’s chance tactically. At 3/1, Blake says Jan Brueghel “makes more appeal to me” than the odds-on market leader.
The honest caveat is straightforward: Calandagan is the world’s leading middle-distance performer and a five-race winning streak at the highest level is not dismissed lightly. This is a deliberate value call against a horse who may simply have improved past his 2025 conqueror. But the course argument is not sentiment – it is a measurable edge that the market appears to be underweighting. The Bet: Jan Brueghel to win the Coolmore Coronation Cup at 3/1 with Betfred.
Lord Melbourne at 20/1: Blake’s Course Specialist Claim in the Northern Dancer Handicap
The HKJC World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap at 5.20pm is, in Blake’s own words, “a ridiculously competitive handicap” – and that assessment is not decoration. These Epsom Derby Day handicaps routinely feature fields of 20-plus runners with ratings compressed across a narrow band, making them among the hardest races to solve on the card. Blake’s answer is course form. Lord Melbourne, the six-year-old trained by Ralph Beckett, has won two of his three starts at Epsom, and his current mark sits just 3lb above the rating he bolted up off at this track last September.
Recent form has been moderate enough to allow the handicapper to accommodate him, and Blake suspects his connections have been pointing at this specific race for some time: “It wouldn’t be at all surprising if his connections have had this race on Derby Day in mind for him for quite some time.” A wide draw, which would concern punters in many handicaps at other tracks, is flagged as non-critical given Epsom’s configuration. That combination – course specialist, well-handicapped relative to his best Epsom form, connections with a plausible plan – is exactly the profile that justifies a swing at 20/1 in a wide-open field.
The Bet: Lord Melbourne each-way at 20/1 with Betfred in the HKJC World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap.
Kevin Blake’s Full Epsom Derby Day Selections
Three races, three clear calls from the At The Races analyst – here is the full Derby Day card in summary form.
- 2.40pm – Coolmore Coronation Cup: Jan Brueghel – 3/1 – Betfred – Win
- 4.00pm – Betfred Derby: Benvenuto Cellini – 2/1 – Betfred – Win
- 5.20pm – HKJC World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap: Lord Melbourne – 20/1 – Betfred – Each-Way
Odds are for entertainment purposes only and subject to change.
