Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found winners at 16-1 and 11-4 in his column on Thursday and has three more stats-based selections on Friday, August 16th…
EPSOM 1.40
SABRIMENTO (system – Brian Meehan, gelded since last run, turf handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2015, Brian Meehan’s turf handicappers who were having their first start since a gelding operation are nine from 39 (23.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £20.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.67, A/E = 2.45). SABRIMENTO looked in need of a step up in trip when a 20-1 sixth in a 6f maiden on the turf at Lingfield in mid-May and could be worth chancing on his nursery debut now that he’s been gelded.
WOLVERHAMPTON 1.50
COVERBRIDGE (system – Calyx, 2yos on the all-weather)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Calyx have an 11 from 42 record on the all-weather (26.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £119.72 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.21, A/E = 2.11) and COVERBRIDGE looks the value call against the odds-on favourite New Bombay. That rival has yet to race on synthetics whereas COVERBIDGE won well at Newcastle in June on his sole all-weather assignment. Phil Makin’s colt could only finish a five-length third in a Leicester nursery last time but the return to Tapeta could see him resume his progression.
WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45
BUSBY (system – Hollie Doyle riding for Phil Kirby in all-weather handicaps)
Hollie Doyle has a useful strike-rate when riding for the Phil Kirby yard, scoring on eight of the 44 runners (18.2%). In all-weather handicaps only, the score is eight from 29 for a profit of £11.04 to a £1 level stake at SP. BUSBY’s 14-1 fifth at Newcastle last time was worthy of an upgrade – he fared second best of the prominent racers in a 1m2f handicap run to suit the closers – and while the step back up to 1m4f is a slight concern, he looks worth chancing at around the 7-1 mark.
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