Newcastle United face one of the most gruelling away trips in European football on Wednesday as they travel to Azerbaijan to take on Qarabag FK in the Champions League knockout stages.
Eddie Howe’s side arrives in Baku amidst a severe injury crisis, yet their morale will be high following impressive back-to-back away victories against Tottenham (2-1) and Aston Villa (3-1).
The Magpies have found a way to win on the road despite a depleted squad, with January signing Nick Woltemade proving a revelation in attack.
Qarabag, managed by Gurban Gurbanov, dominate their domestic league but have struggled defensively on the continental stage.
Having conceded 21 goals in their 8 Champions League matches so far—including a 6-0 thrashing by Liverpool and a 4-2 loss to Ajax—they look vulnerable against Premier League opposition.
Newcastle are given much more chance than the Azerbaijani side in the Champions League winner odds.
They should have too much quality for the hosts.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Best Bets and Betting Tips
Newcastle to Win & Over 2.5 Goals – 6/5
Despite the injury list, Newcastle’s attacking output remains potent.
They have scored five goals in their last two away fixtures against high-calibre Premier League opposition.
Qarabag’s Champions League campaign has been defined by chaos; they concede an average of 2.6 goals per game in this competition.
The hosts will likely score—they usually do at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium—but their inability to defend against pace and power suggests Newcastle will outscore them.
A 2-1 or 3-1 away win looks the most likely outcome.
Sandro Tonali to be Carded – 4/1
This price offers immense value given the tactical context.
With Newcastle’s midfield enforcers Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton both ruled out, the defensive burden falls squarely on Sandro Tonali.
He is expected to be operating in a deeper, grittier role alongside Joe Willock, tasked with breaking up Qarabag’s counter-attacks.
Tonali has played every minute of Newcastle’s last three grueling away games, and fatigue often leads to mistimed challenges.
Without his usual “bodyguards” in midfield, the Italian will have to do the dirty work himself.
Nick Woltemade Anytime Goalscorer – 6/4
The giant German forward has stepped up admirably in the absence of other attacking options, netting in the recent 3-1 win over Aston Villa.
Standing at 6ft 6in, Woltemade is a mismatch for a Qarabag defence that has struggled aerially throughout the group stages.
With Kieran Trippier’s delivery likely to be a key weapon for Newcastle, Woltemade is the prime candidate to capitalise on Qarabag’s defensive fragility.
Key Stats & Trends
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Leaky Hosts: Qarabag have conceded 21 goals in 8 Champions League matches this season (Worst in the remaining field).
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Away Form: Newcastle have won back-to-back away games against Tottenham and Aston Villa.
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Tonali’s Shift: Sandro Tonali has played 90 minutes in 5 of his last 6 starts across all competitions.
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Goals Galore: Qarabag’s Champions League matches average 4.25 goals per game this season.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups & Team News
Qarabag come into this fixture with a clean bill of health, allowing Gurban Gurbanov to field his strongest XI.
The dangerous Abdellah Zoubir and Juninho (likely rotating with Duran) will be the key threats, while Marko Jankovic anchors the midfield.
Newcastle are navigating a full-blown crisis.
The spine of the team is missing, with Fabian Schär, Bruno Guimarães, and Joelinton all injured.
Full-backs Tino Livramento and Emil Krafth are also out.
This means Kieran Trippier and Lewis Hall will be asked to play big minutes.
Nick Woltemade is expected to lead the line, supported by the pace of Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes.
Qarabag FK (4-2-3-1)
Predicted XI:
GK: Kochalski
DEF: Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Jafarquliyev
MID: Bicalho, Jankovic
MID: Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir
FWD: Duran
Newcastle (4-3-3)
Predicted XI:
GK: Pope
DEF: Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall
MID: Willock, Tonali, Ramsey
FWD: Barnes, Woltemade, Gordon
How to Watch Qarabag vs Newcastle
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Date: Wednesday, February 18, 2026
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Kick-off: 17:45 GMT (Early Kick-off)
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Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku
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TV Channel: TNT Sports 2
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Live Stream: discovery+ app
Supporters outside the UK should check local broadcast listings, as coverage varies by territory.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Match Winner Odds
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Qarabag: 13/2
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Draw: 4/1
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Newcastle: 4/9
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Correct Score Prediction
Travel fatigue and a makeshift midfield might make the first 20 minutes difficult for Newcastle, but the disparity in quality will eventually tell.
Qarabag simply concede too many chances to elite sides, and Newcastle’s forwards are too fast for them.
We expect an open, entertaining game where Newcastle’s superior firepower secures a healthy lead for the return leg.
The hosts may grab a consolation goal, but the Magpies should leave Baku with a comfortable advantage.
Qarabag 1-3 Newcastle
