There are many ways to try and find the winner of Saturday’s big Ayr race, but one way of whittling down the runners and putting history on your side is to use the key Scottish Grand National trends and stats.
Scottish Grand National Trends Tell Us It’s Been A Tough Race For Favourite Backers
We’ve listed the main Scottish Grand National trends below, but one stat that leaps out is the poor record of outright winning favourites.
This is because we’ve seen just two joint and co-favourites win the Scottish Grand National prize money since 2022 – Kitty’s Light and Win My Wings – but these haven’t been outright market leaders.
Prior to these two, there was another joint-winning jolly in 2000 (Paris Pike).
However, the last winning market leader in their own right was Young Kenny in 1999, who returned 5/2.
Meaning this run now stretches back 26 years when jockey Brendan Powell guided home the Peter Beaumont-trained 8 year-old.
Last year’s favourite was Mr Vango, but the 4/1 shot was pulled-up before the last – being well-beaten at the time.
With this in mind, the likely 2025 Scottish Grand National favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK, who could be the Willie Mullins runner Chosen Witness, will have a long-running stat to overcome.
It also suggests not being afraid to look down the betting for the winner – the average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 18/1.
Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats
- 21/21 – Ran 57 days or less ago
- 19/21 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
- 18/21 – Carried 11-1 or less
- 17/21 – Aged 8 or older
- 17/21 – Fallen or unseated no more than once
- 16/21 – French or Irish bred
- 15/21 – Placed in the top three in last race
- 15/21 – Won over 3m or further
- 14/21 – Carried 10-9 or less
- 14/21 – Double-figure price in the betting
- 14/21 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
- 14/21 – Last ran between 30-57 days ago
- 13/21 – From the first 7 in the betting market
- 8/21– Won their last race
- 7/21 – Won (fences) at Ayr
- 6/21 – Won over 3m7f or further
- 3/21 – Priced 15/2
- 3/21 – Favourites (or joint)
- 2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 8 winners)
- 2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- 2/21 – Raced in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
- 2/21 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 3 winners)
- 2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
- Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
- The last outright winning favorite was in 1999
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 18/1
ALL Of The Last 21 Winners Had Raced In The Last 57 Days
Next up is to make sure you look for any Scottish Grand National runners that have raced in the last 57 days – this is because ALL of the last 21 winners have ticked this stat.
Last year’s winner Macdermott took the prize having raced only 19 days before.
But this could be a massive stat against one of the main Willie Mullins Scottish Grand National runners – Chosen Witness, who was last seen 62 days again when unseating at Navan.
Others that fall down are – last year’s second Surrey Quest and this year’s Edinburgh National winner Magna Sam.
Look For Horses With A Top SIX Finish Last Time Out
A top six finish last time out is another big Scottish Grand National stat to note – with 90% of the last 21 winners falling into this bracket.
This would be another against Chosen Witness and also last year’s winner Macdermott, who was pulled up at Punchestown in his last race.
You can also take this trend a bit further by knowing 15 of the last 21 winners (71%) finished in the top 3 last time out.
Those with a top 6 finish last time are – Olympic Man, Rock My Way, Surrey Quest, Sail Away, Spanish Harlem, The Kniphand, Brandt, Flash De Touzaine, Our Power and Snipe.
86% Of The Last 21 Winners Carried 11st 1lb or Less
Being a handicap, then weight carried is another stat to look out for.
This is because 18 or the last 21 winners carried 11st 1lb or less – once the final runners are out this can be another way of narrowing down the runners.
We’ve also seen 14 of the last 21 winners carry just 10st 9lbs or less – backed up 12 months ago when Macdermott shouldered just 10st 7lbs to victory.
Those with more than 11st 1lb are – Surrey Quest, Captain, Famous Bridge, Macdermott, Olympic Man, Our Power, Henry’s Friend and Mr Incredible.
The Scottish Grand National Trends Suggest Looking For Horses Aged 8+
In last week’s Grand National at Aintree Nick Rockett became the sixth winning 8 year-old in the last 10 runnings – so what’s the best age for the Scottish version?
Last year the winner was aged just 6, but he was the youngest winner since Earth Summit (also 6) in 1994.
The stats tell us that it’s horses aged 8+ that have won 17 of the last 21 (81%). With 14 of the last 21 (67%) between 8 and 10 years-old
At the other end of the age spectrum – since 2009, we’ve seen two 11 year-old winners (Hello Bud, 2009 and Merigo, 2012).
With the oldest Scottish Grand National winner since 1947 was the 12 year-old Willsford in 1995.
Those aged 7 or younger are – Macdermott, Captain Cody, Rock My Way, The Kniphand, Grozni and Brandt.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies Has Won The Race Three Times
Welsh-handler Christian Williams has won two of the last three – but he’s without an entry in 2025.
Willie Mullins took the prize for the first time last year and with his ongoing British trainers title battle with Dan Skelton he’s going to be mob-handed.
Skelton is also expected to have runners – but he’s yet to get his hands on this pot.
His former boss Paul Nicholls has three wins too, but he’s another with no 2025 runners.
So, the trainer with runners that has the best recent time record is Nigel Twiston-Davies – with three wins.
The first came in 1991 with Killone Abbey, his second with Earth Summit in 1994, who went into win the Aintree Grand National in 1998. With his third and most recent Scottish National winner Hello Bud in 2009.
This year he runs The Kniphand.
2025 Scottish Grand National Race Details
📅Date: Saturday 12th April 2025
⌚Time: 3:35pm
🏇Racecourse: Ayr
🔄Trip: 4m
💷Winner: £112,540
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
Recent Scottish Grand National Winners
- 2024 – MACDERMOTT (18/1)
- 2023 – KITTY’S LIGHT (4/1 jfav)
- 2022 – WIN MY WINGS (13/2 cfav)
- 2021 – MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
- 2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
- 2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
- 2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
- 2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
- 2014 – AL CO (40/1)
WATCH: Macdermott Winning The 2024 Scottish Grand National
Macdermott is expected to be back in 2025 to defend his Scottish Grand National crown.
The last horse to win the race twice on the bounce was Vicente in 2016 and 2017.
Merigo won the race twice in 2010 and 2012.
While before that the last double winner was Androma in 1984 and 1985.
