Bookmakers believe Carlos Alcaraz is more likely to come out on top if Sunday’s Australian Open final goes the distance against Novak Djokovic.
Both needed five sets to win their semi-finals at the Australian Open on Friday.
Alcaraz got the better of Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 in a match that lasted five hours and 27 minutes, setting a new Australian Open record for the longest semi-final ever.
That epic battle delayed the start of the second semi-final, which took just over four hours and finished in the early hours of Saturday morning local time when Djokovic defeated second seed Jannik Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Djokovic faced 18 break points against Sinner, saving 16 of them.
Those semi-finals both took place after Alcaraz and Sinner had been forced to remove fitness trackers by Australian Open officials.
Australian Open Betting: Five-Set Final?
It would be no great surprise if the 2026 Australian Open final went all the way to a fifth set.
Five of the last 10 men’s singles tournaments at Melbourne Park have ended with a five-set final.
One of those five epics was Djokovic’s 6-4, 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Dominic Thiem in 2020.
Alcaraz has never previously contested an Australian Open final, but three of his seven Grand Slam finals to date have been five-setters.
The pre-match odds on Over 4.5 sets are 11/4, while you can back Under 4.5 at 2/7.
Alcaraz Strong Favourite Over Five Sets
Alcaraz is the reigning men’s world number one, so it is no surprise that he will start Sunday’s final as the bookmakers’ favourite.
The Spaniard is currently available at 1/3, while the best price on a Djokovic win is 5/2.
In terms of the set betting, the most likely outcome based solely on the betting is Alcaraz to win 3-0. A straight-sets victory for the 22-year-old is priced at 17/10, while Djokovic to win 3-0 is a whopping 23/2.
Alcaraz to win 3-2 is 19/4, while Djokovic is 7/1 to prevail in a five-set epic in the Australian Open betting.
Alcaraz Holds Best Fifth-Set Win Percentage
After holding his nerve to beat Zverev in their semi-final, Alcaraz now boasts the best fifth-set win percentage in the history of Grand Slam tennis.
Alcaraz has won 15 of his 16 five-set battles, giving him a win rate of 93.75%. Johan Kriek is second in the rankings with 87.50% (14/16), with Bjorn Borg third on 86.96% (20/23).
The only player to beat Alcaraz over five sets at a Grand Slam is Matteo Berrettini, who defeated him 6-2, 7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 7-6 in the third round of the Australian Open in 2022.
Djokovic, by comparison, has won 41 of his 52 Grand Slam matches that went all the way to a fifth set, giving him a win rate of 78.85%.
Djokovic Leads Alcaraz In Head-To-Heads
While Alcaraz is the big favourite to beat Djokovic on Sunday, their current head-to-head record actually favours the Serb.
Djokovic has beaten Alcaraz in five of their first nine meetings, including two of the last three and five of the last seven.
However, Alcaraz leads Djokovic 3-2 in Grand Slam matches. Alcaraz also came out on top the only time one of their matches went to five sets — when he won the 2023 Wimbledon final 1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic head-to-head results
| Tournament (Stage) | Result |
|---|---|
| US Open 2025 (Semi-final) | Alcaraz won 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2 |
| Australian Open 2025 (Quarter-final) | Djokovic won 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Paris Olympics 2024 (Final) | Djokovic won 7-6(3), 7-6(2) |
| Wimbledon 2024 (Final) | Alcaraz won 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(4) |
| ATP Finals 2023 (Semi-final) | Djokovic won 6-3, 6-2 |
| Cincinnati Masters 2023 (Final) | Djokovic won 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4) |
| Wimbledon 2023 (Final) | Alcaraz won 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Roland Garros 2023 (Semi-final) | Djokovic won 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Madrid Masters 2022 (Semi-final) | Alcaraz won 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) |
