Sportscasting’s horse racing expert Andy Newton continues with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races on DAY TWO.
The three-day meeting will head into Friday with SIX more live races on the main ITV Racing channel – which include the Melling Chase, Top Novices’ Hurdle and also the Topham Chase, which is run over the Grand National course.
🎧WATCH/LISTEN – You can also catch Andy Newton on this weekend’s FINAL FURLONG podcast with TalkSport’s Emmet Kennedy & Peter Michael – covering the best of the Aintree action on Saturday, including, of course, the Grand National.
AINTREE Festival Trends Day Two: Can Jonbon Bounce Back In The Melling Chase?
1.45pm – Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f
🥇QUAI DE BOURBON
🥈HANDSTANDS
🥉CALDWELL POTTER
Handstands is one of only three proven distance winners in the race and will be fresher than most having bypassed the Cheltenham Festival – he’s the obvious pick along with Caldwell Potter, who jumped his rivals ragged to win the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase last time.
However, the value call could be the Willie Mullins-trained QUAI DE BOURBON, who was still very much in touch until unseating Patrick Mullins in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase four out (watch below).
Prior to that he won at Gowran Park and don’t forget was a cracking third in the Martin Pipe at the Festival over hurdles last season.
📈 Key Aintree Festival Trends:
- All of the last 21 ran within the last 55 days
- 18 of the last 21 aged 7 or younger
- 18 of the last 21 placed in the top 4 last time
- 17 of the last 21 ran at the Cheltenham Festival
- Only one winner 11/1+ since 1989
- 6 of the last 9 won by the favourite
2.20pm – The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV
🥇BE AWARE
🥈IMPOSE TOI
🥉LISTENTOYOURHEART
The Dan Skelton yard have won 2 of the last 3 runnings of this and BE AWARE looks to have a solid chance of adding to that. 8th in the Coral Cup last time at Cheltenham (watch below), but the flatter track and slight drop in trip will suit – plus is 4lbs better off with the runner-up Impose Toi here.
Skelton also runs the mare Listentoyourheart, who gets the benefit of Harry Atkins’ 7lb claim.
Martin Pipe flop Kopek De Mee could easily bounce back – with that being his first run for 10 months, while with the Olly Murphy yard going well so their recent Wetherby scorer Wade Out has to be noted as well.
📈Key Aintree Festival Trends:
- 8 of the last 11 carried 11-2 or less in weight (rated 133-137)
- 8 of the last 11 returned 10/1 or less and Irish bred
- 9 of the last 11 aged 8 or younger
- No outright winning favourite in the last 11
- Henderson (3 wins), Skelton (2 wins) and the Irish have won 7 of the last 9
2.55pm – TrustATrader Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV
🥇TRIPOLI FLYER
🥈ROMEO COOLIO
🥉DIVA LUNA
The form of the Gordon Elliott yard is a slight worry, but if running to the same level when third in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last time – Romeo Coolio is the one to beat. He was only 7 1/4 lengths off Kopek Des Bordes that day and that race was run 4 seconds quicker than the Champion Hurdle.
However, he’s looking set to go off a short price and that coupled with having had a hard race last time and the form of the Elliott yard suggest he’s worth taking on.
TRIPOLI FLYER looks the obvious one to side with. He’s a horse on the up – winning his last three – and bypassed Cheltenham to come here fresh.
He was also a fine 2nd in the G2 NH Flat race at this meeting last season, so we know the track suits and, unlike the Elliott yard, the Fergal O’Brien camp are in flying form. He’s got 8lbs to find with Romeo but looks the sort to have more in the locker to bridge that gap.
Of the rest, last year’s Mares’ NH Flat winner Diva Luna was a fine third in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival last time and we know she also likes it here at Aintree and can get involved too.
📈Key Aintree Festival Trends:
- Nicky Henderson has won 6 of the last 14
- Just 5 Irish winners since 1978 (but 4 of the last 5)
- 7 winning favourites in last 21
- JP McManus has won the last three
- 20 of the last 21 ran no more than 31 days ago
- 22 of the last 25 winners aged 5 or 6
3.30pm – My Pension Expert Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV
🥇JONBON
🥈EL FABIOLO
🥉PROTEKTORAT
We can expect the front-running Matata to take them along at a fair lick – but in a poor renewal, this should be the perfect chance for JONBON to get back to winning ways after blundering away his chance in the Champion Chase last time.
He still ran a remarkakle race to be second at the Festival and having won this race last year (watch below) we know Aintree is fine.
El Fabiolo is actually the top-rated in the field (170) and a pound ahead of Jonbon, but this former Champion Chaser has lost his way a bit since his peak season in 2023.
Ryanair Chase fourth Protektorat was third last year and he looks set to be booked for another placed finish.
📈Key Aintree Festival Trends:
- 18 of the last 21 ran in the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
- 18 of the last 21 ran in the last 30 days
- 11 of the last 21 favourites have won
- 16 of the last 21 didn’t win last time out
- Jonbon won the race last year
- 25 of the last 33 won or placed at this meeting before
4:05pm – Randox Supports Prostate Cancer UK Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV
🥇BLUE LORD
🥈EXCELLO
🥉JAMES DU BERLAIS
James Du Berlais was second in this race last year (watch below) and off just a pound higher is sure to be popular for the Willie Mullins yard, who have won two of the last five.
However, Mullins and the Munir/Souede boys also have BLUE LORD, who ran a fair third last time in the G1 Ascot Chase to suggest a return to form might be around the corner.
This former G1 winner is down to a mark of just 152 (rated 167 at peak) and could be the type to love these National fences. Paul Townend riding is the added bonus.
Of the rest, with five wins in the race, Nicky Henderson also does well – so his lightly-weighted Excello is chanced for a place with Nico de Boinville in the plate.
📈Key Aintree Festival Trends:
- 18 of the last 21 raced in the last 34 days
- 17 of the last 21 didn’t win their last race
- Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979
- 12 of the last 20 had run over the GN fences before
- Henderson (5 in total), Mullins and Tizzard have won 7 of the last 11
- No winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
4.40pm – Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV
🥇BATTLE BORN LAD
🥈CALIFET EN VOL
🥉JACOB’S LADDER
Lucinda Russell has won 2 of the last 4 and she’s got too big-priced runners here in Jupiter Des Mottes and King Of Answers.
But another yard that does well here is Nicky Henderson and he’s got Holloway Queen and Califet En Vol, with the last-named preferred by Nico de Boinville. He was a nice winner at Huntingdon the last day over 2m 3 1/2f but looked that day as if a step up in trip will suit – so today’s 3m 1/2f can eke out more and will come here fresh from two months off.
Of the rest, recent winners Mister Meggit, Jacob’s Ladder and Familiar Dreams are noted – but BATTLE BORN LAD could be the value after impressing winning both his starts over hurdles.
One of which was a one length beating of the Jamie Snowden runner Wendigo, who has since franked the form running well in the Challow Hurdle and coming 5th in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
📈Key Aintree Festival Trends:
- 18 of the last 21 winners ran in the last 35 days
- 15 of the last 21 winners aged 6 or younger
- Nicky Henderson has trained 3 of the last 10
- Only 2 of the last 21 Irish-trained
- 15 of the last 17 aged 6 or 7
- Nicky Henderson and Lucinda Russell have won 5 of the last 10 between them
GOOD LUCK 🤞
