ANDY NEWTON’s Best Cheltenham Bets and Hot Stats For Day 3: Can Teahupoo Defend His Stayers’ Title?

Sportscasting’s Andy Newton is back with his quickfire best Cheltenham bets on day 3, plus hot stats as the Festival heads into Thursday (13th March 2025) when all eyes will be on Stayers’ Hurdle favourite Teahupoo to see if he can win the race for a second time.

You can also catch Andy Newton’s Cheltenham Festival best bets on day 3 and thoughts on the Final Furlong podcast for Thursday.

Best Cheltenham Bets On Day 3: Thursday 13th March – Can Anyone Stop Teahupoo Winning The Stayers’ Hurdle Again?

1:20 Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 

🥇SIXANDAHALF
🥈GALILEO DAME
🥉AURORA VEGA

I’m not convinced about the hype surrounding the Willie Mullins runner Maughreen – her year out would be a worry, despite winning well at Punchestown last time out. Plus main Mullins rider Paul Townend prefers Aurora Vega, with Patrick Mullins riding Maughreen.

Sixandahalf looks to have the better form in the book, after winning at Fairyhouse by 12 lengths in January and being a flat winner on better ground then it the rain stays away that’s fine too. Don’t forget she was third in the Irish Cesarewitch on the level and is taken to just have too much speed on this ground.

She jumped well on hurdles debut too and can give trainer Gavin Cromwell his first winner in this race.

Of the rest, the 4 year-old Galileo Dame would be interesting too after her excellent second to Hello Neighbour at the DRF last time out. The horse that beat her is one of the fancies for the Triumph Hurdle on Friday. The only niggle is that all past 9 winners were aged 5 or 6, but being 4 she’ll get a handy 10lbs from the older mares.

Paul Nicholls also has two promising mares on his hands in Just A Rose and Jubilee Alpha – saying on a recent preview night there’s not a lot between the pair. These will be flying the flag for the British-based runners.

📈Hot Stats:
– All 9 winners aged 5 or 6
– 6 of the last 9 Irish trained (but last 3 GB)
– Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times
– JP McManus runners are 0-10 (never won the race)

2:00 Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 

🥇ASIAN MASTER
🥈INSURRECTION
🥉SPRINGWELL BAY

Springwell Bay won well here at Trials Day but was hiked up a massive 9lbs for that, which will make life harder – and will have to lump 11st-12lbs as a result but is still expected to go well.

However, the main pick is Asian Master, who was third to the classy Majborough at Fairyhouse back in December and was laster third to Mistergif.

He’s into a handicap for the first time here and with regular rider Mr T Costello taking off 7lbs this is a further help. The only small concern is the longer trip, but the drying ground will help.

Insurrection is interesting too for the Paul Nicholls yard and certainly worth a saver at a bigger price. This horse was only 1 1/2 lengths behind the already mentioned Springwell Bay – but crucially gets a handy 12lb weight pull this time. Yes, he ran poorly the next twice, but at the time the yard weren’t in the best of form.

He also bounced back to winning ways last time out at Musselburgh and despite being 8lbs higher won with plenty in-hand that day. He looks a big price on what is the Nicholls second string behind Caldwell Potter. Jonathan Burke rides.

📈Hot Stats:
– 12 of the last 16 winners aged 6 or 7
– 13 of the last 16 winners placed in the top 2 last time
– 10 of the last 11 winners rated 137+

Note: Last run in 2020 as the Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap (Listed), so this year’s race details are slightly different

2:40 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

🥇FEET OF A DANCER
🥈JERIKO DU REPONET
🥉D ART D ART

The Pertemps Hurdle trends tell us that a massive 8 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue-tie or headgear (or both). So, this is certainly something to look for when the final runners come out. I’ve listed all the horses with headgear below and on the trends piece.

2025 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Runners With Headgear and/or Tongue-tie

Plus, despite Paul Nicholls winning last year, it’s been a good race for the Irish with 7 of the last 9 going their way.

One of those sporting the headgear is Jeriko Du Reponet, who was given – shall we say – “an interesting ride” at Exeter last time.

He came third that day to qualify, with Catch Him Derry winning but is 3lbs better off this time. He sports the first-time cheekpieces too and off a mark of 135 many feel this 6 year-old is well below his true rating – we’ll see.

Another big stat is that 6 of the last 9 ran in the Leopardstown qualifier at Christmas so step forward the winner of that race – Win Some Lose Some. He’s been put away since by trainer Padraig Roche and is also owned by JP McManus, who has a fine record in this race.

However, Feet Of A Dancer was also third in that race and is respected with a 7lb pull for 4 1/2 lengths. She can reverese that form on better terms. Sean O’Keeffe rides and trainer Paul Nolan won this race in 2021 with Mrs Milner.

Another of interest is the Thomas Cooper runner D Art D Art. This 6 year-old was down the field in the 2023 Champion Bumper, but has progressed well since. Including winning at Punchestown in October on good/yielding ground that he’s likely to get here.

📈Hot Stats:
– 8 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue-tie or headgear
– The Irish have won 7 of the last 9
– 13 of the last 18 winners rated between 132-142
– Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7

3:20 Ryanair Chase 

🥇PROTEKTORAT
🥈FACT TO FILE
🥉IL EST FRANCAIS

If Fact To File turns up in the same form as winning the John Durkan earlier this season – he’s going to be hard to beat. On a tricky day, he’s still one of the big day 3 fancies with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

He took the scalp of Galopin Des Champs in the John Durkan in November and is a past Festival winner, when winning the Brown Advisory last season. He’s not been disgraced since in the Irish Gold Cup and Savills Chase – but with no Galopin here and this shorter trip – everything looks in place for a big run.

However, the Brown Advisory he won last year was a poor renewal – the horses he beat that day haven’t won a single race since.

You also worry that his recent defeats at Leopardstown are starting to highlight he’s probably not quite as good as connections had hoped.

In short, some cracks are showing and he’s on a bit of a recovery mission to get make to the lofty heights his connections gave him earlier this season.

Which is why, you feel, they are swerving the Gold Cup for this. Yes, the shorter trip will suit – but with the front-running French horse in the race this will put a lot out of their comfort zone and more stress on jumping.

The Last ‘Back-to-Back‘ Winner Was Albertas Run

Therefore, the safer call might be to side with last year’s winner Protektorat.

The last repeat winner was Albertas Run in 2010/11, who was also the last 10 year-old to take the prize. But he’s been back this season in good heart and heads here having impressed at Windsor last time – beating Djelo by 23 lengths.

Envoi Allen, who also won this in 2023, was runner-up 12 months ago and I’d not be shocked if this 11 year-old put in a big run too on what will be a remarkable seventh Festival run.

Of the rest, we can expect the King George runner-up Il Est Francais to take them along at a fair lick, but I’d worry about the track. He also falls down on the key Ryanair Chase trend that has seen 82% of the last 17 winners placed or winning at the Festival before.

While ALL of the last 17 winners since the race was upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2008 ran at the previous season’s meeting. Il Est Francais will be having his first run at the meeting.

You also feel after what happend in the King George, the jockeys of the rest will know what to expect and will try to not give him as much rope.

📈Hot Stats:
– 16 of the last 20 had won at Cheltenham before
– 14 of the last 17 winners had won or been placed at the Festival before
– 16 of the last 20 came from the top 3 in the betting
– Willie Mullins has won this 5 times

4:00 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 

🥇THE WALLPARK
🥈TEAHUPOO
🥉LANGER DAN

Teahupoo will be one of the Cheltenham bankers on day 3 and it’s not hard to see why. He landed the race last year and in a division that is not the strongest at the moment the challengers seem thin on the ground.

Home By The Lee has been running better this season, but this will be his fourth run in the race – coming 3rd last year and 5th and 6th in previous seasons. Not sure what all the fuss is about him, while at the age of 10 he’s too old based on just one winner aged 10+ since 1987.

My slight issue with Teahupoo is the ground if the rain stays away – and the poor value in his price.

The Nicky Henderson runner Lucky Place could improve more now upped in trip. He was 4th in the Coral Cup last season so we know he acts at the Festival and this season has won both starts in the style of an improving staying hurdler. With the most recent, a gutsy success over Gowel Road in the Relkeel on New Year’s Day.

Mystical Power is interesting for Mullins upped up trip. He did the same with his 2017 winner Nichols Canyon and is related to Annie Power who was runner-up in this race in 2014. But does need to bounce back from two poor runs this season.

Gordon Elliott Looking For His Third Stayers’ Hurdle Win

But the other Gordon Elliott runner The Wallpark is the call and looks a solid e/w play. He’s still only 7 and so should have more to come, plus knows how to win – landing 7 of his 16 starts.

Yes, he’s a bit of a tail-swisher and has 12lbs to find with his stablemate Teahupoo. Plus will need the race to be run at fair pace to be seen at his best – but Elliott and JP teamed up to take this with Sire Du Berlais in 2023 and more of the same is the call. The small concern is where the pace of the race will come from – but I’m hoping something takes up the mantle and this will set things up for The Wallpark.

📈Hot Stats:
– 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
– 31 of the last 35 winners aged 6-8
– 20 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdles races that season
– Since 1987 all winners bar Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger

4:40 TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase 

🥇PATH D’OROUX
🥈MASACCIO
🥉JORDANS 

We’ve got last year’s Grand Annual third – Path d’Oroux – back for more and despite being 3lbs higher the better ground will suit and has since won on the new course at the October meeting here. The last six winners of this had won at Cheltenham earlier that season.

This Gavin Cromwell runner was also well clear of the fourth 12 months ago in the Johnny Henderson and has warmed up for this with an excellent second at Fairyhouse in January.

Jordans and Jagwar will have supporters – with the former running well in a G1 (2nd) behind Impaire Et Passe last time. While Jagwar is a CD winner and has only had four career runs over fences so will have more to come.

While Jordans comes from the Joseph O’Brien team, who has already been on the scoresheet this week. He was last seen running the classy Impaire Et Passe to 4 lengths in a Grade 1 at Limerick.

But the other main player is the Alan King-trained grey Masaccio, who was only 3 3/4 lengths behind Jagwar last time but gets a handy 6lbs pull this time. The first-time cheekpeices are also a plus in a bid to try and keep this 8 year-old interested during the first part of the race.

Last year’s winner Shakem Up’arry is back for more at the age of 11 and is off just 2lbs higher, but are offsetting that with Callum Pritchard’s 5lb claim.

📈Hot Stats:
– 12 of the last 16 winners carried under 11st
– 19 of the last 25 winners from outside the top 4 in the market
– 6 of the last 9 winners won last time out
– The last 6 winners had won at Cheltenham that season

5:20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

🥇YEAH MAN
🥈GIT MAKER
🥉MIDNIGHT OUR FRED

JP McManus has a fine record in the day three finale – winning 4 of the last 13 – including last year.

But Willie Mullins doesn’t – he’s never won it. He’s got Sa Majeste, who is also a French-bred, who are just 1-88 in reecnt years.

JP is back for more with Johnnywho looking his main hope. This horse was fancied by some for the Albert Bartlett last season but ran a poor 8th. This season he’s been switched to fences and won well on debut at Carlisle in October but has lost his way since.

8 Of The Last 10 Winners Ridden by Non-Claiming Jockeys

However, the step up in trip having looked outpaced over shorter looks a good move. While this will also mean things are happening a bit slower with regards to his jumping. Top amateur Derek O’Connor, who won this last year, rides and that will make him a very popular.

8 of the last 10 winners were ridden by non-claiming riders.

In a race the Irish never used to do well in – they’ve picked up recently with 7 of the last 11 winners – so their Midnight Our Fred (J P Flavin) is another of interest having been second three times at Cheltenham in his career.

Fred was also a nice winner at Gowran Park in October and backed that up with a fair second to Perceval Legallois, who has since franked the form by winning at the DRF.

The 4th Nick Rockett has come out and won the Thyestes and Bobbyjo, the 5th Will Do ran will in the Irish Grand National Trial (2nd).

While the 7th Three Card Brag has won since too – giving the form of that run a very solid look.

The money has come for Walking On Air, who would have won last time out but for falling late on at Doncaster.

Git Maker was second last year and is only a pound higher, plus has warmed up with a fine 4th in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month. He can go well too – but French breds are only 1-88 since 2005, which is the small worry on him. He sports the first-time cheekpieces.

So at a bigger price, a chance is taken on Yeah Man though, who despite having a big weight will like the ground and was in the process of running a fair race until unseating in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last time.

📈Hot Stats:
– 10 of the last 13 winners rated 137-143
– 12 of the last 16 winners ran in February
– Look for non-claiming amateur riders
– Willie Mullins has never won this race

GOOD LUCK 🤞