Betfair analyst Sam Turner has named his exact 1-2-3 finish for Saturday’s Epsom Derby, and the biomechanics data behind the call is as compelling as the odds. Turner, an award-winning journalist with more than three decades in the racing industry, centers his selection on stride profiles – and the numbers point decisively toward an O’Brien-dominated finish, with one well-priced outsider gatecrashing the podium.
Aidan O’Brien saddles seven of the 17 possible runners as he chases an unprecedented fourth successive Derby victory – a feat that would further extend his record-breaking tally of 10 Epsom Derby wins. That kind of numerical dominance creates both opportunity and complexity for bettors: with O’Brien runners potentially covering multiple placings, knowing which one to back is the real question. Turner’s stride-profile framework gives a precise, data-driven answer, and the market has already reacted, with ante-post favourite Benvenuto Cellini attracting significant support after his record-breaking Chester Vase win.
Current Epsom Derby Betting Odds
Here are the latest Derby market prices heading into final declarations, courtesy of Betfair:
- Benvenuto Cellini: 13/8 (2.63)
- Item: 5/1
- Ancient Egypt: 6/1
- James J Braddock: 8/1
- Pierre Bonnard: 10/1
- Constitution River: 12/1
Odds courtesy of Betfair and are for entertainment purposes only.
Benvenuto Cellini Is the Analyst’s Top Pick To Win the Derby
Benvenuto Cellini sits at the head of Turner’s analysis for one precise reason: his biomechanical profile maps directly onto what Epsom rewards. The Chester Vase winner produced a peak stride of just 2.0 strides per second – the lowest figure in the entire field – combined with a peak stride extension in excess of 26 feet. That combination of energy efficiency and raw reach is, as Turner notes, “synonymous” with recent Derby winners, including last year’s Lambourn.
Turner is explicit about the blueprint: “Slow striders which boast massive peak strides and also possess natural speed like Benvenuto Cellini – he broke the track record when winning at Chester – have enjoyed great success in recent renewals of the Derby.” The Chester Vase itself has produced mid-110s Racing Post Ratings this season, comparable to the pre-Derby figures posted by Golden Horn and Desert Crown before their Epsom triumphs, which reinforces the quality of the form rather than flattering it.
The one legitimate concern is external: thunderstorms are forecast and the draw has yet to be made. Turner acknowledges that a marked deterioration in ground or an unfavorable stall could complicate matters. But at 13/8, he regards Benvenuto Cellini as “difficult to dismiss” – and the stride data backs that verdict entirely.
Ancient Egypt Brings Matching Credentials to the Epsom Mile-and-a-Half
Ancient Egypt is the strongest challenger because his stride data is essentially the twin of last year’s winner. Turner’s analysis places the Charlie Johnston-trained son of Frankel at 26.4 feet of stride extension – the exact figure posted by Lambourn in 2025 – with an average cadence of 2.10 strides per second that “fits perfectly within the ideal metric for a Derby winner.” Frankel’s progeny have already produced two Derby-distance Group 1 winners in Adayar and Soul Sister, so the pedigree argument reinforces the biomechanical one.
Johnston, who arrived at the Derby weekend off the back of a German 1,000 Guineas win with Timeforshowcasing, has done his homework on the track. Ancient Egypt walked Epsom’s contours at a recent gallops morning and, encouragingly for a horse with such a giant stride, handled both the Dip and Tattenham Corner without issue. Jockey David Egan should be able to ride an uncomplicated race close to the pace, draw permitting.
The one real concern is ground. Johnston has been direct: good ground is the slowest he would ideally like for the son of Frankel. Any significant rainfall that softens conditions beyond that threshold would dent confidence meaningfully. On fast ground, this horse checks every box bar the favourite’s superior natural speed.
James J Braddock Is the O’Brien Runner the Analyst Trusts Most
Turner addresses the O’Brien multi-runner question directly: despite Aidan O’Brien training seven of the field, it is James J Braddock – trained by Joseph O’Brien – who earns the third slot in Turner’s 1-2-3. The selection cuts through the noise of Ballydoyle’s numerical dominance to find a grinder with a profile built for the Epsom test.
Joseph O’Brien has yet to win the Epsom Derby as a trainer, but he has already landed the Irish Derby with Latrobe and has built a reputation for improving middle-distance three-year-olds at the top level. James J Braddock, purchased for just 40,000 guineas, won Leopardstown’s Cashel Palace Derby Trial last month in a manner that highlighted his relentless cadence: an average of 2.11 strides per second that allows him to sustain output throughout a race. Turner frames it perfectly – “if there are any chinks in the armour of the more fancied contenders, James J Braddock could be the last man standing when the bell sounds for the final time.”
The one honest caveat is that his stride length doesn’t match Benvenuto Cellini or Ancient Egypt at peak extension, meaning he needs the race to set up with a solid, true gallop to maximise his grinding style. Any rain would only help, not hinder. At a double-digit price, Turner sees him as the value play in the frame.
Horses the Analyst Is Swerving in the Derby Market
Turner reluctantly but clearly steps away from Item, the Group 2 Dante Stakes winner, despite the York-to-Epsom route producing Golden Horn in 2015 and Desert Crown in 2022. The concern is behavioral: Item overraced in the formative stages at York, and his peak stride length of 24.75 feet trails the leading contenders materially. Turner also notes that Item’s progressive stride pattern looks more suited to flat tracks than Epsom’s undulating demands.
The biomechanics argument against Constitution River is equally crisp: his rapid, high-revving cadence suits ten furlongs and a flat track like Chantilly, not a gruelling mile-and-a-half. Aidan O’Brien himself identified this distinction, and Turner’s data confirms it. Both represent fading opportunities in the current market.
Bottom Line: Turner’s 1-2-3 is Benvenuto Cellini, Ancient Egypt, James J Braddock – a biomechanics-led call that rewards stride efficiency over raw trial form. The Betfred Derby runs Saturday at Epsom. Final declarations, the stall draw, and updated going reports will be the last variables to watch – particularly for Ancient Egypt’s ground sensitivity. For bettors navigating the broader horse racing betting landscape, Turner’s framework is a disciplined model built on measurable data, and Saturday’s field suits it closely.
The Bet: Benvenuto Cellini to win at 13/8. Each-way on Ancient Egypt at 6/1. Sprinkle on James J Braddock at 8/1 for place or outright if the market drifts.
