December Gold Cup Favourite Needs To Defy Shocking Record

This Saturday’s Cheltenham December Gold Cup looks like a competitive contest – with about four horses contesting the favourites berth at this stage.

However, if you own one of these fancied runners you might actually hope it doesn’t go off as the market leader.

Here’s why.

December Gold Cup Looks A Competitive Renewal 

With still only a day till the race – it’s too hard to call which horse will be the December Gold Cup favourite.

There are around four entries all vying for the favourites berth for Saturday’s big ITV Racing scheduled contest.

These include the JP McManus-owned Jagwar, who was a late scratching from last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup due to the soft ground.

But he looks the most likely jolly at this stage.

This Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero runner is sure to be popular with punters – having won the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase as one of the Cheltenham Festival favourites in 2025 (watch below).

And will head into the contest four-from-five over fences as JP looks to win the December Gold Cup for just the second time.

Having won the prize in 2011 with Quantitativeeasing.

Plus is also two-from-two here at Cheltenham.

Jagwar is certainly and exciting chaser and after a quiet patch the yard had a welcome winner on Monday.

We could also see the Dan Skelton-trained Hoe Joly Smoke go off as favourite.

He’s impressed here at the last two Cheltenham meetings this season, most recently when third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November.

And gets in here off the same 131 mark as Skelts looks to add another £71k to his British jump trainers’ championship tally.

While the Sam Thomas runner Vincenzo was runner-up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and will try to go a place better off a two pound higher mark.

However, whichever horse does go off as the favourite in the renamed Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup – they will have a big stat to overcome.

December Gold Cup Favourites Have a Shocking Recent Record 

For whatever reason, Saturday’s December Gold Cup has been a terrible race for favourites.

In the last 22 runnings of the Cheltenham race, we’ve only seen ONE market leader go in.

Which also came back in 2009, with the Paul Nicholls-trained POQUELIN winning as the 7/2 jolly.

Meaning, as we head into the 2025 renewal – the race is on a run of 14 (2022 abandoned) runnings without a favourite winning.

Over this 22 year period, we’ve also seen 13 of the last 22 favourites unplaced.

Madara was the latest December Gold Cup favourite to lose, when coming second in 2024 at 11/4 to Gemirande (see below).

Therefore, this equates to just a 5% STRIKE-RATE for the favourite since 2000.

Why Have The December Gold Cup Favourites Struggled?

You can see below the last ten December Gold Cup favourites and where they finished.

We’ve had three hit the bar in second and to be honest – they’ve not fared too badly.

With eight of the last ten finishing sixth or better.

But this has always been a competitive race and this is probably the single reason why it’s been a tricky one for favourite backers to get right.

It’s also a contest that often sees a horse (or two) well-backed on the day and this can often lead to punters just jumping on the band-wagon.

Making some of these ‘false favourites’ – in short, horses that are fancied but should probably be a point (or two) bigger in the betting.

The last two winners – Madara and Thunder Rock – were both well-supported in the build-up to the race.

Of course, this poor run of favourites is likely to turn at some point – we’ll just have to see if 2025 is the year this trend overturned.

Last Ten December Gold Cup Favourites

Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Race Details

📅Date: Saturday 13th December 2025
⌚Time: 1:50pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m 4 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £71,188
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

December Gold Cup Runners and Betting Odds 2025 

Note: December Gold Cup betting odds are subject to change.