The standout tie of the FA Cup Fourth Round takes centre stage on Saturday evening as Premier League high-flyers Aston Villa welcome Newcastle United to Villa Park.
This is a heavyweight clash with a fresh narrative.
Unai Emery’s side will be feeling confident having already beaten the Magpies 2-0 at St. James’ Park just three weeks ago in the league.
For Villa, who currently sit 3rd in the Premier League, this competition represents a genuine chance to end their long wait for silverware.
For Newcastle and Eddie Howe, the stakes are significantly higher.
While the Magpies snapped a dismal five-game winless streak with a morale-boosting 2-1 victory over Tottenham in midweek, the manager remains a prominent figure in the Premier League sack race odds.
With a Champions League play-off against Qarabag on the horizon, Howe faces a crucial dilemma: does he go all out for revenge at Villa Park to silence the doubters, or rotate his squad with Europe in mind?
Here is the full preview, including our best bets, predicted lineups, and correct score prediction.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Best Bets and Betting Tips
Newcastle to Qualify – 6/5
Newcastle United are a very interesting pick to qualify at 6/5, primarily due to the conflicting priorities of these two clubs. Aston Villa currently sit 3rd in the Premier League and are favourites to win the Europa League.
Consequently, Unai Emery is expected to rotate his squad heavily to keep his primary starters fresh for those competitions.
A thinner squad means that a “disjointed” Villa lineup is highly probable for this Fourth Round clash.
In contrast, the FA Cup represents the only realistic path to silverware for Newcastle this season.
The Magpies need a deep cup run to salvage a patchy campaign and ease the mounting pressure on manager Eddie Howe.
Furthermore, Newcastle showed signs of a tactical revival with their midweek 2-1 victory over Tottenham.
They demonstrated a higher level of intensity and physical output that had been missing in previous weeks.
While Villa won the most recent league meeting 2-0, that game featured a full-strength Villa side that likely won’t appear here.
Newcastle are expected to field their strongest possible XI, including key playmakers like Bruno Guimaraes.
This disparity in “intent” makes the 6/5 price for Newcastle to reach the next round look like excellent value.
We expect the Magpies to use their superior motivation to edge past a rotated Villa side.
Lamare Bogarde to be Carded – 3/1
In the player disciplinary markets, Lamare Bogarde stands out as the most likely candidate for a yellow card.
With Matty Cash currently sidelined through injury, the youngster is expected to start at right-back.
This represents a massive physical and technical test against Newcastle’s elite wide attackers.
Statistically, Bogarde has been a “walking yellow card” during the 2025/26 campaign.
He currently averages a staggering 0.68 yellow cards per 90 minutes, which is the highest rate of any player in the Villa squad.
His combative style of play often leads to late challenges.
In this unfamiliar role, he could be forced to bring down tricky wingers.
Bogarde will be tasked with containing the likes of Anthony Gordon, who is one of the most prolific foul-winners in the Premier League.
The data shows that Gordon draws an average of 2.1 fouls per game, often in dangerous one-on-one situations.
Given Bogarde’s lack of experience at this level, he is highly likely to commit a cynical or emergency foul to stop a breakaway.
At 3/1, the probability of Bogarde finding his way into the official’s notebook is significantly higher than the odds suggest.
Newcastle to Score Over 1.5 Goals – 6/4
Backing Newcastle to score at least twice offers far better value than the standard “Both Teams to Score” market.
The statistical trends under Eddie Howe in this competition are very compelling. Newcastle have managed to score two or more goals in four of their last five FA Cup away ties.
This shows a consistent ability to maintain attacking pressure on the road in knockout football.
With Aston Villa likely fielding a rotated backline featuring inexperienced deputies, the Magpies’ frontline should find plenty of opportunities.
The potential inclusion of dangerous forwards like Yoane Wissa and Anthony Gordon gives them a significant edge in the final third.
Moreover, Villa’s defensive metrics at home have shown signs of weakness when they rotate their central pairing.
Newcastle’s tactical setup is designed specifically to capitalize on these gaps behind the defence.
The data indicates that Newcastle create an average of 1.8 big chances per away game in cup competitions.
Given the likely “cup-tie” nature of the game, it should be an open affair with numerous scoring chances for the visitors.
At 6/4, this bet aligns perfectly with the current defensive vulnerabilities of a second-string Villa side.
Key Stats & Trends
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Walking Card: Lamine Bogarde averages 0.68 yellow cards per 90 minutes this season—the highest rate in the Villa squad.
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Fortress Villa Park: Villa have lost just twice at home all season (vs Man City and Brentford).
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Cup Specialists? Newcastle have reached the FA Cup 5th Round in three of the last four seasons under Howe.
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Head-to-Head: Villa have won the last two meetings, including the 2-0 win at St. James’ Park in late January.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Confirmed Lineups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Confirmed XI:
GK:Â Bizot
DEF:Â Bogarde, Torres, Lindelof, Digne
MID:Â Luiz, Onana
MID: Rogers, Barkley, Bailey
FWD:Â Abraham
Newcastle (4-3-3)
Confirmed XI:
GK:Â Ramsdale
DEF:Â Trippier, Burn, Thiaw, Hall
MID:Â Ramsay, Tonali, Osula
FWD: Murphy, Woltemade, Barnes
How to Watch Aston Villa vs Newcastle
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Date: Saturday, February 14, 2026
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Kick-off: 17:45 GMT
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Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
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TV Channel: BBC One
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Live Stream: BBC iPlayer
Supporters outside the UK should check local broadcast listings, as coverage varies by territory.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Match Winner Odds
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Aston Villa: 6/5
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Draw: 5/2
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Newcastle United: 2/1
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Correct Score Prediction
While the bookies have Villa as slight favourites, the value lies with the visitors.
Villa’s focus is inevitably split with Europe on the horizon, whereas Newcastle’s desperation for a result—and Howe’s need to secure his future—should give them the extra 10% needed in the duels.
Expect a scrappy, feisty affair settled by a moment of quality from Newcastle’s frontline against a disrupted home defence.
Aston Villa 1-2 Newcastle United
