An emotional reunion awaits at the MKM Stadium as Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior returns to his former club for a Friday night FA Cup blockbuster. We preview the action as the Tigers look to park their league campaign for a shot at a giant-killing.
The narrative could hardly be better scripted.
Liam Rosenior brings his star-studded Chelsea side back to East Yorkshire this weekend to face the club where he made his name as both player and manager.
Hull City will have no room for sentiment, however.
The Tigers are currently flying high in fourth place, and while securing Championship promotion remains the ultimate goal this season, the visit of the eight-time winners offers a tantalizing “free hit” under the lights at a sold-out MKM Stadium.
Hull vs Chelsea Best Bets and Betting Tips
Chelsea to Win and Both Teams To Score – 7/4
Chelsea are the heavy favourites to progress in this FA Cup tie.
However, their defensive data away from home suggests they may struggle to keep a clean sheet.
Specifically, the Blues have conceded in four of their last five away matches. This trend shows a clear tendency to lose focus when traveling.
Furthermore, Hull City have been very productive at the MKM Stadium.
The Tigers have scored 16 goals in their last seven home matches.
Their attacking metrics remain strong despite a recent dip in overall results.
Consequently, we expect them to challenge a Chelsea backline that often plays with a high line.
In contrast, Chelsea’s offensive power remains at an elite level.
They recently scored five goals against Charlton and dominate games with over 70% possession.
Because Hull prefer an open game, Chelsea will find plenty of space to exploit.
Therefore, the statistics point toward a Chelsea victory where both teams find the net.
John Lundstram to be Booked – 3/1
The midfield battle will be a physical contest between Championship grit and Premier League skill.
John Lundstram is the most likely candidate to receive a yellow card in this environment.
Currently, Lundstram is averaging 0.57 yellow cards per 90 minutes in the Championship this season.
This high frequency makes him a standout candidate for a caution.
He must disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm, particularly against elite playmakers like Moises Caicedo.
Statistical data shows that Chelsea’s midfielders maintain a passing accuracy of over 91%.
To counter this, Lundstram will likely use tactical fouls to break up the play.
He often targets the space between Hull’s defensive lines to stop quick transitions.
Furthermore, Lundstram has already picked up 6 yellow cards in just 11 starts during the 2025/26 campaign.
Chelsea may also look to move the ball quickly to exploit Hull’s tired legs.
This strategy often forces central midfielders into mistimed challenges.
Given the technical gap between the squads, a cynical foul to stop a counter-attack is highly probable.
At 3/1, this selection offers great value based on his current disciplinary trajectory.
Over 3.5 Goals – 13/8
Recent scoring trends for both clubs suggest a high-scoring encounter is on the horizon.
Hull City’s last fixture was a five-goal thriller against Bristol City.
Similarly, Chelsea’s matches have consistently surpassed the 2.5-goal margin lately.
The Blues have seen Over 3.5 goals land in five of the last six away matches.
This attacking momentum is driven by the form of Cole Palmer, who recently netted a historic hat-trick against Wolves.
Moreover, the short turnaround from Chelsea’s midweek game against Leeds could lead to defensive fatigue.
Tired defenders often make unforced errors, which creates more scoring opportunities for clinical strikers.
Both managers prefer high-pressing systems rather than sitting deep in a defensive block.
Consequently, the game should remain open from the start to the final whistle.
With Chelsea generating a massive 2.58 xG per game under Rosenior, the scoreboard should stay busy.
Backing four or more goals aligns perfectly with the current statistical output of both teams.
Key Stats & Trends
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The Rosenior Return: The headline act is in the dugout. Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior returns to the MKM Stadium for the first time since his departure to face Sergej Jakirovic’s side.
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Stuttering Tigers: After a six-game winning run, Hull have taken just one point from their last two home matches (0-0 vs Watford, 2-3 vs Bristol City).
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Short Turnaround: Chelsea have had just two full rest days since their intense 2-2 draw with Leeds on Tuesday night.
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Palmer Power: Cole Palmer has now scored in three consecutive matches for the Blues, netting his 16th goal of the season against Leeds.
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Cup Kings vs Lower Leagues: Chelsea have progressed from 24 of their last 25 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division.
Hull vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups & Team News
Sergej Jakirovic has received a significant boost ahead of the tie, with right-back Cody Drameh in line to feature after missing the last nine games with a quad injury.
However, the Tigers will be without two influential figures, as both Matt Crooks and Ruben Vinagre remain sidelined.
With the heavy fixture schedule taking its toll, Jakirovic has hinted at shuffling his pack, suggesting several key players are carrying knocks and will be rested for the league campaign.
The Blues face a headache over the quick turnaround, with a growing injury list complicating matters for Liam Rosenior.
Marc Cucurella is a major doubt after limping off with a hamstring problem against Leeds, joining a crowded treatment room that already includes Levi Colwill, Jamie Gittens, and Romeo Lavia.
There is a glimmer of hope defensively, though, with Tosin Adarabioyo pushing for a return after his own hamstring issue, while captain Reece James could be back in the squad after overcoming illness.
Hull (4-2-3-1)
Confirmed XI:
GK: Phillips
DEF:Â Coyle, Egan, McNair, Giles
MID: Hadziahmetovic, McCarthy
MID:Â Slater, Hirakawa, Koumas
FWD:Â Millar
Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
Confirmed XI:
GK:Â Sanchez
DEF: James, Fofana, Sarr, Hato
MID:Â Santos, Caicedo
MID: Neto, Estevao, Garnacho
FWD:Â Delap
How to Watch Hull City vs Chelsea
Start time: 8:00 pm GMT on Friday 13 February 2026.
Venue: MKM Stadium, Hull.
TV (UK): Live on ITV1 and ITVX.
Live stream: Available via the ITVX app and website.
Supporters outside the UK should check local broadcast listings, as coverage varies by territory.
Hull vs Chelsea Match Winner Odds
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Chelsea to win: 1/3
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Draw: 4/1
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Hull City to win: 8/1
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
Hull vs Chelsea Correct Score Prediction
While the romance of the cup—and the Rosenior narrative—suggests a potential upset, the reality of Chelsea’s firepower is hard to ignore.
Hull City’s commitment to playing out from the back is bold but very risky against a top-tier press.
Chelsea’s system is designed to punish teams that take these risks in their own defensive third.
While the home crowd will provide a huge boost, the quality gap is likely too large to ignore over 90 minutes.
Expect a competitive contest early on, followed by Chelsea’s superior bench depth securing the victory late in the second half.
Prediction: Hull City 1-3 Chelsea
