Liverpool were the biggest movers in the race for the Champions League top eight on Tuesday after their impressive victory over Inter Milan.
The Reds headed to the San Siro faltering in Europe, with pressure on manager Arne Slot and under the cloud of Mo Salah’s sensational outburst.
They turned in a gritty, disciplined display and relied on a slice of luck after Dominik Szoboszlai buried his strike from the penalty spot after a contentious VAR call.
Liverpool, who are 10/1 to win the Champions League, now sit eighth in the table with four victories from six matches.
Champions League qualification probabilities
According to Football Meets Data, Liverpool now have a 57% chance of finishing in the top eight and thus earning an automatic spot in the Round of 16.
That’s a 28% increase compared to before their victory over the Serie A title challengers.
They could drop out of the top eight on Wednesday night if Borussia Dortmund beat Bodo/Glimt at home or Manchester City defeat Real Madrid.
However, with games against Marseille and Qarabag to follow, Liverpool will fancy their chances of picking up maximum points.
Arsenal have all-but sealed their top eight spot with a perfect record in Europe as they prepare to take on Club Brugge on Wednesday.
As it stands, Manchester City have a 59% chance of a top eight finish, but much will depend on the outcome of their clash at the Bernabeu.
[🔵 UCL race for Top 8/24 – as of 9 Dec]
🔝 Change in Top 8:
📈 IN: 🏴 Liverpool, 🇮🇹 Atalanta, 🇪🇸 Atleti
📉 OUT: 🇩🇪 Dortmund, 🇮🇹 Inter, 🏴 Chelsea🔝 Change in Top 24:
📈 IN: 🇧🇪 Club Brugge
📉 OUT: 🇧🇪 Union SG👉 Full probabilities and scenarios available in our 📊 FMD… pic.twitter.com/Gbf4w4u6k7
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) December 10, 2025
A defeat will see them sit two points adrift of Liverpool, but they will fancy themselves to pick up six points in their remaining matches against Bodo/Glimt and Galatasaray at home.
Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea are all on course to finish in the top 24 and book their place in a two-legged play-off, but an automatic qualification appears unlikely.
Chelsea’s defeat away at Atalanta had a detrimental impact on their chances and now have a 26% chance of a top-eight finish.
A favourable clash against Pafos awaits before a challenging trip to Napoli.
Tottenham have been given a 21% chance of a top eight finish and Newcastle just 15%. The Toon still have a daunting trip to Paris Saint-Germain to come.
📉 Inter 🇮🇹 and Chelsea🏴 suffer a blow in Top 8 race, dropping at least -30% in one night!
📈 Liverpool 🏴, Atalanta 🇮🇹, Atletico Madrid 🇪🇸 all add over +24% to their Top 8 chances!
👉 Full probabilities and scenarios available in our 📊 FMD Simulator pic.twitter.com/uCGlbAzurz
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) December 9, 2025
Arsenal injury scare ahead of Champions League contest
Mikel Arteta is facing a selection dilemma ahead of their clash with Club Brugge after Declan Rice emerged as an injury concern.
The England midfielder, alongside Leandro Trossard and William Saliba all missed team training on Tuesday.
Rice played the full 90 minutes in their defeat against Aston Villa at the weekend, while Trossard was forced off despite being introduced to the game at half-time.
Given Arsenal’s faultless results in the Champions League this season, Arteta could be afforded the opportunity to rest a number of his key players.
Mikel Merino may drop back into midfield to fill Rice’s role, which could mean a start for striker Viktor Gyokeres.
Christian Norgaard remains an option, while Gabriel Martinelli may start ahead of Trossard on the left.
