Liverpool’s title challenge is over after only 11 games following Sunday’s 3-0 loss at Manchester City.
Arne Slot’s side were beaten comfortably at the Etihad Stadium thanks to goals from Erling Haaland, Nico Gonzalez and Jeremy Doku.
It could have been more for the hosts, but for Giorgi Mamardashvili saving a Haaland penalty.
The result moves City to within four points of leaders Arsenal, who drew at Sunderland.
But for Liverpool, they are now languishing in eighth place, eight points adrift of the Gunners.
Despite being only 11 games into the season, it would already take a huge turnaround for the Reds to catch up.
As a result, the latest Liverpool manager odds have been shortening, with Arne Slot under mounting pressure.
But is it doable, or have Liverpool already left themselves too much of a mountain to climb?
To find out, we at SportsCasting have taken a look through the history books at every previous Premier League campaign.
Biggest Turnarounds In A Premier League Title Race
According to the stats, Liverpool’s current position is close to insurmountable.
We went back over all 33 previous years of the Premier League to see the biggest turnarounds in the league’s history from this point in the season.
Below, we have listed the five eventual Premier League winners who had the biggest points gap to the league leaders at this stage.
Biggest Gap To Leaders After 11 Games
- Manchester United (02/03) – 8 points
- Blackburn Rovers (94/95) – 8 points
- Manchester City (13/14) – 6 points
- Manchester United (92/93) – 5 points
- Manchester United (96/97) – 5 points
As the figures show, only two teams in history have ever been eight points adrift after 11 games and gone on to win the title.
Blackburn’s shock triumph in 1994-95 and Man United’s 2002-03 title remain the biggest turnarounds in title race history from this point in the season.
Liverpool would therefore need to produce an incredible change in form to close the gap and retain their crown.
How we head into the international break ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/lLkcriKOBF
— Premier League (@premierleague) November 9, 2025
Has The Title Race Ever Been Won From Where Liverpool Are Now?
In the history of the Premier League, only one team has ever lifted the title having been as low as eighth at this stage of the campaign.
During Manchester City’s 2013-14 season, they were eighth in the table 11 games in, but went on to win the league.
However, they were only six points behind leaders Arsenal.
Below, we can see the five eventual champions with the lowest league position at this stage of the Premier League season.
- Manchester City (13/14) – 8th
- Manchester United (92/93) – 6th
- Arsenal (01/02) – 6th
- Manchester United (96/97) – 5th
- Manchester City (20/21) – 5th
One again, Liverpool would need to match the biggest turnaround in Premier League history in order to win the title from their current league position.
So far, we have seen stats that mean Liverpool would have to match records in order to win the league.
But they would actually be breaking one if they came back and pulled off a miraculous turnaround.
Five times have the eventual winners of the Premier League been sat on 19 points after 11 games.
But never in history has a team on 18 points after this many games – Liverpool’s current tally – gone on to lift the title.
Are Liverpool Already Out Of The Title Race?
To say Liverpool are categorically out of the title race would be premature.
It’s never over until it’s over. The Reds are eight points adrift with a maximum of 81 still to play for.
Current league leaders Arsenal have dropped off repeatedly in the second half of the season, and will have the added pressure of being known as ‘bottlers’ under Arteta.
But the stats don’t lie. Liverpool winning the league from here would be the biggest turnaround in Premier League history, by several metrics.
It therefore feels fair to say that Arne Slot’s side are on the brink.
If they can put together a run of consecutive wins before Christmas and close the gap, who knows?
That doesn’t seem likely, though. It feels very much like Sunday’s loss at City has derailed an already shaky title defence.
Last week, Dutch icon and former Chelsea star Ruud Gullit said Liverpool’s ‘aura has gone’ and that opponents were no longer fearful of playing them.
And the bookmakers seem to agree.
At the time of writing, Liverpool have slipped to 11/1 with most football betting sites.
They remain third favourites, but at much longer odds then Arsenal or Manchester City.
Premier League Title Race Odds
- Arsenal 3/4
- Manchester City 5/2
- Liverpool 11/1
- Chelsea 33/1
- Manchester United 50/1
- Sunderland 200/1
- Aston Villa 350/1
