England’s elite clubs are facing an intriguing scrap to finish in the top eight of the Champions League table which is going down to the wire.
There were more twists in the tale last week as Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle picked up impressive victories while Manchester City suffered a shock defeat at Bodo/Glimt.
Striker Kasper Hogh, who is wanted by Norwich City and Celtic, scored a brace to stun Pep Guardiola’s side.
With one matchday remaining, Arsenal have already sealed their passage to the knockouts, but the remaining five British sides are all in with a chance of avoiding a play-off.
Champions League Top Eight Probabilities
Arsenal’s hugely impressive run of seven consecutive victories has all but sealed their top spot, and unsurprisingly, they are favourites to win the Champions League.
As it stands, Tottenham, Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea all occupy a place in the top eight, but it’s staggeringly tight.
Just three points separate Paris Saint-Germain in sixth and Qarabag in 18th.
The top eight of the Champions League automatically enter the knockout stages, while the teams who finish between ninth and 24th will enter a play-off.
According to Football Meets Data, Liverpool’s 3-0 win in Marseille last Wednesday means they now have a 97% chance of finishing in the top eight.
That’s because they’ll be highly fancied to get the job completed against Qarabag in their final fixture.
Manchester City’s probability has dropped to 64%, despite currently sitting in 11th. They are level on points with Chelsea in eighth and have a favourable but must-win home tie with Galatasaray to come.
Tottenham have a 43% chance of automatic qualification with a tricky trip to Eintracht Frankfurt to come.
Thomas Frank remains the favourite in the Premier League sack race, but their impressive victory over Borussia Dortmund relieved the pressure on his shoulders.
Chelsea’s tough tie away at Napoli means they have a 33% chance of a top-eight finish, while Newcastle have the lowest chance of all English clubs with a 20% probability.
The Toon, who lost Bruno Guimaraes to injury, faces a daunting trip to holders PSG in their next outing.
[Projected🔵 UCL Top 8/24 – as of 21 Jan]
🔝 Change in Top 8:
📈 IN: 🇪🇸 Barcelona
📉 OUT: 🇮🇹 Atalanta🔝 Change in Top 24:
📈 IN: 🇦🇿 Qarabag, 🇪🇸 Athletic Club
📉 OUT: 🇳🇱 PSV, 🇵🇹 Benfica👉 Enter your own scenarios and see how probabilities change in our 📊 FMD Simulator pic.twitter.com/U5kc3PHjaE
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) January 21, 2026
The Champions League Permutations
Liverpool – A victory against Qarabag will seal a top-four finish, while a draw should be enough to finish in the top eight.
Tottenham – A win will secure their place in the top eight and a spot in the knockout rounds, while a draw could be enough if other results go their way.
Goals could be expected in our best betting tips for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham.
Newcastle – It’s an uphill task for Newcastle to seal their automatic qualification spot. There are eight teams on 13 points, meaning only a victory against PSG will likely ensure their top-eight finish. Then they’ll have to rely on goal difference.
Chelsea – It’s a situation very similar to Newcastle, with the Blues occupying eighth spot on 13 points by virtue of goal difference. They’ll need to win in Napoli to stand any chance of securing their automatic qualification and hope goal difference gets them through.
Manchester City – Pep Guardiola’s men sit 11th on 13 points and need to pick up three points with a healthy goal difference at home to Galatasaray to force a way into the top eight. Their goal difference currently stands at +4, which is two worse off than Chelsea and six compared to Newcastle.
