We can expect a large field in the Newcastle feature race on Saturday, so to help whittle down the runners we’ve got the key Northumberland Plate trends. You can apply these stats to the final entries to help find the horses with the best profiles based on previous winners of the 2m 1/2f handicap.
For example – 96% of the last 23 winners finished in the top five in their last race, while 78% of winners over this same period were also aged 6 or younger.
We’ll also shortlist the FOUR horses that tick the most Northumberland Plate trends below.
Northumberland Plate Trends Point To Horses Aged 6 Or Younger
The first of the key Northumberland Plate trends to have on side is age.
This is because 78% (18 of the last 23) winners were aged 6 or younger.
Yes, we’ve seen two 7 year-olds win since 2019 (Who Dares Wins and Calling The Wind) and a 9 year-old (Nicholas T) in 2021.
So, a small word of caution. As this stat might be turning, but it’s still worth noting the race generally goes to horses aged 6 or younger.
While since 1985 only one winner has been aged 9+ – which would be a negative for the Jim Goldie runner Faylaq at 9 years-old.
We’ve also got the 2023 runner-up Golden Rules back for more – but he’s now aged 8.
Look For Horses With A Top Five Finish In Last Race
This Saturday’s Northumberland Plate will be shown live on ITV Racing at 3:15pm from Newcastle racecourse and if the key stats are to be believed we must look for horse with a ‘top five’ finish last time out.
Why? Well, the Northumberland Plate trends tell us a massive 22 of the last 23 winners (96%) came into the race having finished fifth (or better) in their most recent outing.
Most of the main players will tick this stat, but there are a few at the top of the market – like East India Dock (6th) and Duke Of Oxford (UP) – who fall down.
You can also take this ‘last-time-out’ Northumberland Plate trend a bit further.
As 19 of the last 23 (83%) winners actually finished in the top three last time and seven of the last 23 (30%) won their most recent start.
How Have The Northumberland Plate Favourites Fared?
For a race with a maximum of 20 runners, the Northumberland Plate favourites record isn’t too bad.
Over the last 23 runners the race has produced six winning market leaders. With the most recent the classy Trueshan in 2022, who shouldered the welter-burden of 10-8 to victory.
While since 2018, Caravan Of Hope and Withhold were other winning jollies.
Northumberland Plate Trends and Stats 📈
- 22/23 – Won over at least 1m4f on the flat
- 22/23 – Placed fifth or better in last race
- 19/23 – From stall 14 or lower
- 19/23 – Came in the top three last time out
- 18/23 – Aged 6 or younger
- 17/23 – Won over at least 1m6f on the flat
- 13/23 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
- 13/23 – Returned a double-figure price
- 10/23 – Had at least two turf flat runs that season
- 8/23 – Won by a National Hunt yard
- 7/23 – Won last time out
- 6/23 – Favourites
- 5/23 – Won on the flat at Newcastle before
- 3/23 – Raced at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 16 winners)
- 1/23 – Won by a past winner of the race
- Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)
Did You Know? Northumberland Plate Facts ❓
- Only 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
- Since the race was run on the AW (2016, 9 runnings) 7 winners drawn from stalls 10-17
- 12 of the last 14 winner from stalls 14 or lower
- Six of the last 19 winners raced at Ascot or Haydock last time out
- Six of the last 10 won carrying between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs.
- 11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 13
Trainers More Famed For Their Jumpers Have Done Well
Being run over one of the longer trips on the flat, it’s also no shock that trainers more famed for their jumpers have targeted the £81k first prize.
In the last 23 runnings we’ve seen the likes of Jonjo O’Neill and Donald McCain win, plus Alan King has landed two of the last six renewals.
The latest NH yard to try and add their name to the list is from Ireland and we’ll see one Willie Mullins Northumberland Plate runners.
The champion jumps trainer in Ireland is sending over Pappano – owned by the H O S Syndicate, who had a Royal Ascot winner last week with Ethical Diamond.
He’ll be ridden by Jamie Spencer, who won the race in 2003 on Unleash.
Pappano was also formerly trained by John Gosden and is two-from-three on the AW. With these wins coming at Southwell and Wolverhampton.
Last Year’s Winner Onesmoothoperator Looking To Become The First ‘Back-to-Back’ Winner Since the 1970’s
It also looks likely that we’ll be seeing last year’s Northumberland Plate winner Onesmoothoperator back again.
The Brian Ellison runner took the prize 12 months ago (watch below) by 2 1/2 lengths and despite being rated 12lbs higher would still be interesting.
He’s since raced Down Under in Australia to win their Geelong Cup and finished 12th (of 23) in the Melbourne Cup last November.
This year he’s contested better races (Group) in Dubai – running with credit without winning.
But his record here at Newcastle on the AW is not to be sniffed at – 1-3-2-2-2-2-3-14-2-1-3-6-4-8-1 – so still has to be respected.
He’ll be looking to become the first ‘back-to-back’ winner since Tug Of War in 1977 and 1978.
But it’s worth mentioning Tominator won the Plate twice since, but just not in consecutive seasons (2011 and 2013).
WATCH: Onesmoothoperator Winning The 2024 Northumberland Plate
The Brian Ellison-trained Onesmoothoperator wins the 2024 running of the Northumberland Plate under jockey Connor Beasley.
60% Of The Last 10 Winners Carried Between 9-1 and 9-9 in Weight
The final Northumberland Plate trend to note is the weight as this is a handicap race.
Last year’s winner only carried 8st 9lbs, but looking at the last ten runnings we’ve have seen 60% of winners coming from a smaller weight window.
These winners came between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs – so once the final runners are out this stat can be applied to see if any of your fancies fit the bill.
Which Horses Tick The MOST Northumberland Plate Trends? 📈
If we focus on the horses aged 6 or younger that finished in the top 5 last time out – plus are drawn in stalls 14 or lower.
12 of the last 14 winners were drawn 14 or lower
While 7 of the last 9 winners since the race was run on the AW came between stalls 10-17
Here’s what we are left with.
- Pappano
- Dancing In Paris
- Asgard’s Captain
- Golden Rules
Northumberland Plate Details 2025
📅Date: Saturday 28th June 2025
⌚Time: 3:15pm
🏃Trip: 2m 1/2f
🏇Racecourse: Newcastle
💷Winner: £81,000
📺 TV: Sky / ITV Racing
Northumberland Plate Latest Betting Odds 2025
- Who’s Glen 11/2
- East India Dock 13/2
- Pappano 13/2
- Golden Rules 9/1
- Onesmoothoperator 10/1
- Tribal Star 10/1
- Duke Of Oxford 10/1
- Zanndabad 12/1
- Dancing In Paris 14/1
- Manxman 20/1
- 22/1 bar
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request.
Recent Northumberland Plate Winners 🥇
- 2024 – Onesmoothoperator (12/1)
- 2023 – Calling The Wind (14/1)
- 2022 – Trueshan (3/1 fav)
- 2021 – Nicholas T (33/1)
- 2020 – Caravan Of Hope (9/2 fav)
- 2019 – Who Dares Wins (12/1)
- 2018 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
- 2017 – Higher Power (11/2)
- 2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
- 2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
