In the world of sports betting, Paddy Power is the undisputed king of the “PR stunt.”
Known for their cheeky marketing and bold claims, the Irish bookmaker made headlines on February 7, 2026, by officially paying out all bets on Arsenal to win the Premier League.
At the time, with Mikel Arteta’s side sitting nine points clear after a 3-0 demolition of Sunderland, the title looked like a formality.
However, as Manchester City begins their trademark end-of-season surge, that decision is looking increasingly like a multi-million-pound nightmare.
How Much Will the Arsenal Early Payout Cost?
While Paddy Power keeps their exact liabilities under wraps, industry experts suggest a Manchester City title win could result in a “double payout” loss exceeding £2 million.
When a bookmaker pays out early, they aren’t just giving away the winnings; they are effectively closing the “book” on that market.
If Arsenal fails to lift the trophy, Paddy Power cannot ask for that money back.
Consequently, if Manchester City – currently trailing by just three points with a game in hand – goes on to win, the bookie must pay out a second time to every punter who backed the Cityzens.
The cost is compounded by the fact that City were priced at roughly 2/1 when the Arsenal payout was triggered.
Because City’s odds were higher than Arsenal’s “odds-on” price, the payout to City backers would actually be more expensive per pound wagered than the original payout to Arsenal fans.
The History of Paddy Power Early Payout Blunders
This isn’t the first time the “Luck of the Irish” has run dry.
Paddy Power has a long history of paying out early and getting it spectacularly wrong:
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2003 Premier League: They paid out on Arsenal in March. Manchester United went on a late-season tear to win the league, costing the bookie over £500,000.
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2013 Relegation: They paid out on Stoke City to be relegated after just two games. The Potters finished 13th, comfortably safe.
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2023 Top 4 Race: Payouts were triggered for Liverpool to finish in the Champions League spots, only for Jurgen Klopp’s side to miss out to Newcastle and Manchester United.
Why Bookmakers Take the Risk
You might wonder why a business would risk millions on a “what if.” For Paddy Power, it is a calculated marketing expense.
The global media coverage generated by an early payout – and the subsequent “fail” if it goes wrong – often provides more brand value than a traditional television advertising campaign.
However, with the 2026 title race now on a knife-edge, the “banter” is quickly turning into a balance-sheet headache.
If Pep Guardiola’s side wins their game in hand and overtakes the Gunners in May, the “Sunderland Payout” will go down as one of the most expensive marketing errors in betting history.
What it Means for Punters
For those who backed Arsenal at Paddy Power, the money is already in the bank.
For those who backed City, the potential for a massive windfall remains.
But for the bookmaker, the final weeks of the season will be spent nervously watching the scoreboard, praying that Mikel Arteta doesn’t let a certain “Tottenham-esque” collapse happen.
