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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Monday Picks – October 14th

andrewmount Written by Horse Racing Expertandrewmount
Updated –
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Andrew Mount

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew found 8-1 Ffos Las winner BOOSTER BOB on Sunday and starts the new week with two stats-based picks on Monday, October 14th…

WINDSOR 4.15

URBAN HYDRANGEA (system – Cityscape, heavy going)

John Gallagher’s URBAN HYDRANGEA is a far from obvious pick in this 1m3.5f handicap but the daughter of Cityscape could be worth chancing on her first start outside of maiden/novice company on the all-weather. The three-year-old showed ability on her second start when a 150-1 sixth at Kempton and she’s bred to appreciate the switch to deep ground. Backing the sire’s progeny on heavy ground (based on race times not the official going) would have found nine winners from 45 bets for a profit of £23.95 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.57, A/E = 1.62). She needs to improve considerably, hence offers of around 50-1, but she’s worth chancing to small stakes at those sort of odds.

 

HEREFORD 5.05

VON HALLERS (system – Kim Bailey, early-season break-returners)

In-form Kim Bailey has an excellent recent record with his beak-returners in the early months of the peak jumps season, with those returning from a break of 150 days or longer in October, November and December landing 30 of their 115 starts (26.1% strike-rate) since 2021 for a profit of £54.92 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 18.74, A/E = 1.60). VON HALLERS will appreciate the return to hurdles after pulling up on her Rules chase debut here last spring and the overnight market move is encouraging.

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andrewmount Written by Horse Racing Expertandrewmount
Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience in the industry. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website and has written more than 20 horses-to-follow books. Andrew specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting sites and is an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV.
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