Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the evening all-weather action at Wolverhampton for his trio of stats-based selections on Tuesday, August 20th…
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
TEXAS STARLIGHT (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a good record with racecourse debutants, regardless of age and who trains them. Backing all the qualifiers would have found 46 winners from 221 bets (20.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £28.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 36.42, A/E = 1.26). TEXAS STARLIGHT, who cost connections 185,000euros at Deauville last summer, looks a likely type on paper and can make a winning start to her career.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
MIZUUMI (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti has a fine record when switching one of his runners from turf to Tapeta. The Newmarket handler is 0-10 on this angle at Southwell but does much better at Newcastle (11 from 43, +£43.91 to a £1 level stake at SP) and here at Wolverhampton (56 from 264, +£60.97). MIZUUMI has finished well beaten on turf the last twice but this Kempton winner might fare better now back on the sand.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
ADVERT RULES (system – Alan King, first-time visor)
The Alan King-trained ADVERT RULES was well beaten over hurdles at Uttoxeter last time but the return to the Flat and application of a first-time visor could bring about the required improvement. This century, King’s record with Flat runners (turf and all-weather) in this headgear stands at seven winners from 36 runners (19.4%) for a profit of £48.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.80, A/E = 2.50). The three-year-old finished a creditable fourth over 9.4f on his only previous course visit and this 1m4f contest won’t take a great deal of winning.
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