Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Hexham Racecourse for jumps action and the floodlit All-Weather Flat meeting at Kempton Park this evening for his two stats-based picks on Wednesday, December 11th…
HEXHAM 2.20
REAGROVE LORD (system – Malinas, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Malinas have a solid record over 2m4f or further on actual soft or heavy going. Using race times as the basis for this, rather than the official verdict, some 84 of the 478 qualifiers scored (17.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £63.52 to a £1 level stake at SP. (expected winners = 68.57, A/E = 1.23).
There are four qualifiers at Hexham today including Cumbria trainer George Bewley’s six-year-old REAGROVE LORD, who could also improve for the fitting of a first-time visor. This is another positive angle for the sire.
KEMPTON 4.10
MARIN COUNTY (system – Ed Walker, second time out 2yos)
Ed Walker is ten from 26 with his second time out juveniles this calendar year. Backing them all blind would have returned a profit of £46.93 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Six of the 16 beaten horses finished second or third (at odds of up to and including 33-1), so MARIN COUNTY looks worth a speculative each-way interest despite having finished only tenth of 14 over course and distance on last month’s debut. He looks sure to take a step forward for his first experience of the track.
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