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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Wednesday Picks – November 6th

andrewmount Written by Horse Racing Expertandrewmount
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Andrew Mount

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to Chepstow and Kempton (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Wednesday, November 6th…

2.20 CHEPSTOW

NOW OR NEVER (system – Venetia Williams, handicap chasers in November)

Venetia Williams does extremely well with her handicap chasers in the month of November, scoring with 127 of the 633 qualifiers this century for a profit of £206.59 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 94.18, A/E = 1.35). NOW OR NEVER struggled in handicap hurdle company last term but would have needed time to acclimatise after leaving France, where he had form over fences. The five-year-old will be suited by the return to the larger obstacles and looks worth changing at odds of around 7-1 or bigger.

 

KEMPTON 3.25

HELMSLEY (system – New Bay 2yos, second start)

Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay have a good record on their second start, landing 32 of their 135 starts (23.7%) for a profit of £90.69 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 23.65, A/E = 1.35). Ralph Beckett’s HELMSLEY blew the start and ran green when sixth over course and distance on last month’s debut and can take a big step forward this afternoon.

 

CHEPSTOW 3.30

BALLYDANGAN (system – Dan Skelton stable switchers, handicap hurdles)

Dan Skelton has a good record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially in handicap hurdles. He’s won with 46 of the 151 qualifiers (30.5%) for a profit of £20.70 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.99, A/E = 1.35). BALLYDANGAN, a 15-race maiden in Ireland, changed hands cheaply last September but has had a wind operation since we last saw him and could go well at an each-way price.

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andrewmount Written by Horse Racing Expertandrewmount
Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience in the industry. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website and has written more than 20 horses-to-follow books. Andrew specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting sites and is an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV.
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